2016 Postmortem

brooklynite

(94,679 posts) Mon Mar 21, 2016, 09:51 AM Mar 2016

After tomorrow's voting, what will be the delegate spread?

In pledged delegates, Clinton holds a 307-delegate lead over Sanders

Clinton 1143 (58%)
Sanders 836 (42%)
In overall delegates, Clinton holds a 720-delegate lead over Sanders

Clinton 1579 (65%)
Sanders 859 (35%)
Clinton needs to win 35% of remaining delegates to hit 2383 magic number

Sanders needs to win 65% of remaining delegates to hit 2383 magic number

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-gop-establishment-s-big-choice-about-trump-n542511

Arizona: closed Primary (75 delegates)
Utah: open Caucus (33 delegates)
Idaho: open Caucus (15 delegates)

My predictions: Arizona 55/45 Clinton, Utah 53/47 Sanders, Idaho 60/40 Sanders
Clinton +2

7 votes, 0 passes \| Time left: Unlimited
	Clinton will INCREASE her lead over Sanders
	5 (71%)
	Sanders will DECREASE Clinton's lead
	2 (29%)
	No change
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

20 replies

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After tomorrow's voting, what will be the delegate spread? (Original Post) brooklynite Mar 2016 OP

3 more states down, Hillary still +300 delegates. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #1

Clinton 1172 - Sanders 846 jcgoldie Mar 2016 #2

Super Delegates count as soon as they announce. MohRokTah Mar 2016 #5

I understand that jcgoldie Mar 2016 #7

50 Super Delegates switched in 2008. MohRokTah Mar 2016 #9

So if Sanders somehow jcgoldie Mar 2016 #12

Clinton will increase the spread in absolute numbers rock Mar 2016 #3

HOw do you increase the spread but decrease the percentage? brooklynite Mar 2016 #4

Good straight man rock Mar 2016 #6

Either way the important % jcgoldie Mar 2016 #10

Sounds right to me rock Mar 2016 #16

It'll be something like 12,000 to 2. I ain't sceeered o' that. cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #8

She is actually up 324 pledged delegates as of right now. Before we get to tomorrow, 13 Dems Abroad morningfog Mar 2016 #11

Dems Abroad aren't actually pledged until May (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #14

Green Papers just added them to pledged totals. Bernie won - 9, to HIllary's 4. morningfog Mar 2016 #17

Right, but, as an actual Democrat Abroad who will be at the DA convention Recursion Mar 2016 #19

If I were putting money I'd bet on a wash Recursion Mar 2016 #13

not much change hill2016 Mar 2016 #15

Did you run this through Nate's Michigan Model? Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #18

Idaho 78/21; Utah 79.7 /19.8 Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #20

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)

1. 3 more states down, Hillary still +300 delegates.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 09:53 AM

Mar 2016

jcgoldie

(11,636 posts)

2. Clinton 1172 - Sanders 846

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 09:58 AM

Mar 2016

Those are the pledged delegate totals after all were finally assigned from last Tuesday. She needs 854 (42%) to hit 2026 which would be 50% pledged delegates.

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)

5. Super Delegates count as soon as they announce.

Reply to jcgoldie (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:10 AM

Mar 2016

Otherwise, Barack Obama could have NEVER claimed victory on June 3, 2008.

Remember, Hillary Clinton recognized he had hit the magic number because of those super delegates and gracefully bowed out on June 5, then she endorsed him on June 7.

jcgoldie

(11,636 posts)

7. I understand that

Reply to MohRokTah (Reply #5)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:48 AM

Mar 2016

But they can always change their minds as several did in 2008 leaving HRC for Obama. So for the sake of figuring out how close to clinching the nomination she is I think it's more useful to just look at pledged delegates. If she gets 2026 (50%) then there is no argument for supers to change their allegiance. Sure she could win it with less than 50% pledged with her large super-delegate advantage, but it would be a lot dicier and Sanders would have a case that the voters had picked him making unifying the party much more difficult. In the end I don't think it will matter as she's well on her way to winning a majority of pledged delegates.

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)

9. 50 Super Delegates switched in 2008.

Reply to jcgoldie (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:52 AM

Mar 2016

They did so AFTER Hillary Clinton conceded and endorsed.

jcgoldie

(11,636 posts)

12. So if Sanders somehow

Reply to MohRokTah (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:55 AM

Mar 2016

...won a plurality of pledged delegates, you don't think the superdelegates would follow the democratic choice? I think you are wrong. I think its an academic argument because theres almost no chance he can catch up, but if he did I think it would be a complete mess if supers swung it for her.

rock

(13,218 posts)

3. Clinton will increase the spread in absolute numbers

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 09:59 AM

Mar 2016

I suppose it's possible that Sanders could shrink the percentage, nevertheless.

brooklynite

(94,679 posts)

4. HOw do you increase the spread but decrease the percentage?

Reply to rock (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:07 AM

Mar 2016

rock

(13,218 posts)

6. Good straight man

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:32 AM

Mar 2016

Let's say

Before:
Clinton 1200 60%
Sanders 800 40%

After
123 votes are spread C+62 S+61
So by absolute numbers Clinton picks up +2
But her new percent 59.3 (if I did my math right)

I assumed for the poll you mean absolute numbers.

jcgoldie

(11,636 posts)

10. Either way the important %

Reply to rock (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:52 AM

Mar 2016

Is the percentage of delegates going forward that Sanders needs to win (currently 58%)... that number should continue to rise as he falls short of it state by state even if he wins several states in a row.

rock

(13,218 posts)

16. Sounds right to me

Reply to jcgoldie (Reply #10)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:10 AM

Mar 2016

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)

8. It'll be something like 12,000 to 2. I ain't sceeered o' that.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:50 AM

Mar 2016

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

11. She is actually up 324 pledged delegates as of right now. Before we get to tomorrow, 13 Dems Abroad

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:52 AM

Mar 2016

pledged delegates will be allocated.

What will the spread be when all the dust settles after tomorrow's vote and allocations? I think HIllary will still be up 300+, but less than 324.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

14. Dems Abroad aren't actually pledged until May (nt)

Reply to morningfog (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:03 AM

Mar 2016

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

17. Green Papers just added them to pledged totals. Bernie won - 9, to HIllary's 4.

Reply to Recursion (Reply #14)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:30 AM

Mar 2016

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

19. Right, but, as an actual Democrat Abroad who will be at the DA convention

Reply to morningfog (Reply #17)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:56 AM

Mar 2016

I am saying, they aren't actually pledged until the Democrats Abroad convention in May.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

13. If I were putting money I'd bet on a wash

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:03 AM

Mar 2016

Maybe not literally, but not more than a 3 or 4 net delegate change.

hill2016

(1,772 posts)

15. not much change

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:06 AM

Mar 2016

+/- 3 to 5 in either direction

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)

18. Did you run this through Nate's Michigan Model?

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:36 AM

Mar 2016

'It's the Math!!!!'

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)

20. Idaho 78/21; Utah 79.7 /19.8

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 09:11 AM

Mar 2016

Sort of close on Arizona 57.8% to 39.7%.

Not even close on the other two contests. It's almost as if the West is a mystery in some trad quarters of the country....

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