to liking Nate Silver now!

President Obama is going to win this election!

just checked n.s. a bit ago but had not seen the update then

hell to the yeah!!!

"ear to the ground"

... rethink it's model.

His article from yesterday about Gallup was also interesting:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

"The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls. (You can read my thoughts here on the challenge of reconciling state and national poll data.)"

Conservative A-holes are gonna hate silver now!

Lets do this guys.

Obama/Biden 2012

ruff!

I think he does fall into the bad news for Ds/good news for Rs framing thing in his analysis.

But, the numbers are the numbers.

Whether we like it or not, whether we agree with analsysis of it or not, the first debate had a VERY signficant impact on this election.

Obama wins this election. No doubt.

Been a while since I've been here.

Hope you don't mind the Bugs Bunny reference. Welcome back.

So that people know it refers to Nate Silver's model rather than InTrade etc.

We'll use that baby in crib from the E-trade commercial. An absolutely awsome commercial against rMoney.
Thanks for the brainstorm.

or at least it soon shall be. Hope will triumph over fear, truth over lies, knowledge over ignorance, and hopefully here, optimism over pessimistism

due to this six point lead issue.

every 4 years.

Romney leading in any poll is like a nightmare episode of the Twilight Zone.

In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large.

Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 -- just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie.

In 1996, Gallup had Bill Clinton's margin over Bob Dole increasing to 25 points from nine points over the course of four days.

After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters. Although some other polls also had Mr. McCain pulling ahead in the race, no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead.

a poll junkie; I follow them casually, so I'm not up on the who/what/where of all the pollsters. And seems like whenever I make a comment or give an opinion on a poll or pollster, someone hands my ass back to me on a stick. LOL

What is Gallup's point in doing this? Is it a headline grabbing thing?

swings that make the electorate look a lot more volatile than it is.

Pay attention to the RV figures.

Nate seems to be a good writer. At least I understand his explanations of his numbers. I respect that.

Plus this last 3 weeks, there will be a lot more exposure that gets to people who haven't been paying attention. E.G. the Springsteen events, Obama's appearance on The Daily Show. I expect Obama will hit all the evening talk shows. Romney has avoided anything where he might have to answer a real question. Leno is safe enough for Romney, but I bet he won't face Letterman.

I would have thought FL would be one of the top 3. I guess that means that Silver's models have FL a longer shot than the polls would suggest on the surface.

He has the odds of winning Ohio at 72% now, about the same as Iowa and Nevada. it is going to be hard for Romney to change the shape of Iowa because so many have already voted there. And I doubt Romney has a ground operation to compete in Nevada.

What this may come down to is whether the two usual election fraud states (Ohio and Florida) plus Walker's Wisconsin, which seems to have way more than its share of election irregularities, can deliver for Romney.

I keep hearing of the "True the vote" intimidation goon squads planned in Ohio for election day. Is there any effort to try to match them goon for goon? I would very definitely be interested in going to Ohio if that could help counter some of the intimidation tactics.

Feels great to be back again.

There is still time for Florida to come around, but the action is clearly in Ohio and Virginia, and some efforts to hold the other vital swing states (WI, IA, NV)

If we hold Ohio and Wisconsin (losing Virginia and Florida) there is still a very reasonable path to 281 electors
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Lqg

I still expect we will win Virginia.

Since when?

It is certainly not a lost cause, and it may get much closer to 50% odds once the post-debate numbers take over.

But notice the Obama campaign is spending very little time there right now. They must win Ohio, and they'd really like to take VA, although that is not a must-win. Florida is probably about the 5th priority right now.

Prez Obama is going to lose, unless the repugs make a game changing stealing of the election. Which they did with Gore/Bush.

Oh, hi I am Jim and this is my first post. Sorry if broke protocol, and didn't introduce myself previously. A friend just emailed me the link to DU, where she was mad at the state of affairs on coverage of events, which lead me here.

Jim

You meant "not" going to lose right?

"There is no way...Prez Obama is going to lose..."

Me should read betters.

to DU!

Protocol is pretty loose around here, that was a fine first post.

If you want to really introduce yourself, go here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1256 This is our Welcome & Help forum.

I just signed up a few days ago and I'm addicted...

good info and good posts

....nice jump.

I thought of doing a true double entrende, but scaled back a bit just to be an attention whore. Thanks for all the other kudos. I'll be reading more on DU!

he's been here for years, slapping down Mittens and bringing tea-tards to tears!
We're gonna win this thang!

Or they will name the country something else with sponsorship from Mormon church. Our cities will be named after strange planets that Rmoney-luns believes in. And I learned that here a few weeks ago.

Don't worry -- I'm sure the odds will go down tomorrow, when PPP releases its already-tweeted-as-favorable-to-Mittens Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

ann's failure on the view.
romney's son wanting to assault the president
romneys flop at the dinner last night
obama's winning performance at the dinner last night
obama's winning performance at the 2nd debate
obama's willingness to go on the view, the daily show and nickelodean
romney's unwillingness to appear on the view, the daily show and nickelodean
biden's slap down of paul ryan in the vp debate
ryan's soup kitchen bomb, that is still going viral as we speak

all of this and more is starting to show a trending toward the president.
and after monday's debate, romney's campaign will be in free fall
and desperate to try something drastic that will explode in their faces
just like wile e coyote.

Romney gaining in swing polls I guess