...because on Lawrence O'Donnell earlier tonight, Obama was at (I think) 253 EV votes...and tonight he's at 291...

in small reddish font.

"Updated 11:38 PM ET on Oct. 18"

New state polls for major battlegrounds are looking OK. I'm more confident he'll take WI, IA and NV. The real fight is for the larger prizes (OH, VA, and CO) and that rinky dink, wacky northeastern state of NH, which is stubbornly close! I am however pessimistic about FL. And I think NC may be slipping away.

VA is interesting. Silver has it at exactly 50/50.

What exactly. This is where forums like Intrade are more useful than DU or Dkos. The folks are a little more tuned in to the reputation of pollsters. There is zero proof that NC is remotely lost. None. Nada. Zilch. Nyet. Unless of course you're all in on Ras, ARG, and Gravis polls - because those are the only polls that would make you believe that. And we don't need to go into how unreliable ARG and Gravis are, do we?

LOL.

With heavy early voting and things like churches planning to bring their entire congregations in buses to vote yet to come into play, no one knows what the voter turnout will be. I doubt however that it will be the traditional turnout.

150,000 early votes in NC yesterday: people standing in lines all OVER the state.

Here are the registration numbers straight from the NC Board of Elections:

Voter Registration as of 10/19/2012 Democratic: 2,836,498 Republican: 2,034,953 Libertarian: 18,318 Unaffiliated: 1,691,823 Total: 6,581,592

http://www.ncsbe.gov/


Please notice there are over 800,000 MORE Dems registered in the state than Repubs.

Obama campaign has a HUGE GOTV operation underway.

We are going to turn NC blue.

Why do you think Romney moved out? They just spun one more of their lies.

The NOV 6 CAST is 70.4%

Nate's just following what we're already following. Seems almost redundant to go there now that we scrutinize very poll in existence.

Your slip is showing again.

65.7% yesterday.

Romney gets Fl, Va and NC unfortunately.

I'd go with Silver's forecast. Forget about NC. But FL is at 37% and VA is at 50%. That sounds about right.

At any rate, OH is at 72%. I would think it should be higher.

but unfortunately the state has tightened significantly over the last several weeks. I think there's a chance Obama can still eek out a victory there depending on turnout in NOVA.

Nate has it at exactly 50/50.

you'll see

Let NC Go. We have lost there. I know we are all excited about early voting etc there but it aint happening.

VA is still VERY VERY winnable so lets focus on that.

As far as Florida goes, I'm not sure what to think here. Need more data/polling. If we are an average of more than 4 points down here though, we might have to start thinking of pulling resources here to dispatch to VA instead.

Nate has virginia back to Obama column.Romney a sof now Is oised to take 3 2008 Obama states-Indinia,NC,and florida.However
with exception of Indiana they shouldn't be written off.

In the senate numbers nate has Democrats losing Montanta,ND,and Nebraska.Republicans losing Maine,Ma,and Indiana.Democrats
keeping opening seats In hawaii,NM,Wis,and Virginia and In Conn a real democrat will get the seat.If nate's model of senate holds up
the senate would be 52 to 47.That's without knowing who King In Maine will caucus with.But I am sure after election he will make some
kind of deal with harry reid to caucus with democrats.