2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"A candidate who's still winning states with 80% of the votes against the presumptive nominee..."
Clinton actually had a pretty bad showing yesterday. It doesn't look good to be losing 20%-80% in Utah and 21%-78% in Idaho. The margins were so big that they more than wiped out her advantage in Arizona and allowed Sanders to net way more delegates than expected. It was a repeat of 2008, when Obama's advantage in Idaho erased Hillary's gains in the much more delegate-rich (and expensive) New Jersey.
But it doesn't really matter. Sanders is still behind by more than 300 delegates, not including the supers. She already has the nomination locked up. The reason last night was important for Sanders is that no one can look at those results and tell him that he should just get out. A candidate who's still winning states with 80% of the votes against the presumptive nominee has the right to take his case to the convention, and that's what I expect Sanders to do.
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2016/3/23/113712/199
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)in states that Hillary doesn't contest.
phantom power
(25,966 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)that you win the nomination by accumulating a majority of delegates, not states won, right?
metroins
(2,550 posts)What are these delegates you speak of?
Are they akin to superman or pledges of allegiance?
phantom power
(25,966 posts)But, seriously, Clinton ought to be wondering how it is that Sanders came out of nowhere and turned this into a contest. A contest that she still hasn't actually won yet, statistical odds notwithstanding.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Hence the constant shrill screams for him to drop out.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Clinton barely campaigned for either red state caucus, so the numbers are not surprising. However, Sanders tried to spend his way into the AZ race, and flopped;
Sanders invested heavily in Arizona. He more than doubled Clintons ad spending there, dropping $1.3 million on television advertising over the past week compared to Clintons $600,000. And he campaigned in the state on virtually every one of the past seven days.
So
AZ:
BS: 27
HRC: 43
pending: 5
ID:
BS: 17
HRC: 6
UT:
BS: 18
HRC: 6
pending: 9
Sanders has a net +4 now. Let's give him all of UT's outstandings and 2 of 5 of AZ's for a +15. He beat her by 15 delegates but in essence had to spend 2 states to do it.
When you spend $2 to make $1.50, it eventually catches up to ya...
Math.
Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)She really doesn't need as much campaigning as Bernie. And AZ hopefully will get contested.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)It's amazing how well he does in sparsely populated and homogeneous states.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)OK= 75.4% White. Arizona =84%. Texas = 80% Illinois 77.7%. United States is 77.7% white, just like Illinois but a bit whiter than OK. In terms of population size, OK is #28 among 50, not exactly in the middle but very close. So too small and too white relative to other States? Not really.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)That's what the Hillarians said when Bernie didn't campaign in the south.
So I guess that's how they see this too???
Or do they have a serious DOUBLE STANDARD???
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Hillary will win that in one Manhattan block.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Holy shit.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Bernie at 79.7 percent meaning thus far, 12,970 votes for Hillary, 52,185 for Bernie. Since you asked so nicely.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/22/arizona-idaho-utah-election-results-primaries-caucuses-live
That website is live so the figures are updated as they come in. You're welcome.
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)on what you mean when you say "we".
AzDar
(14,023 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)A Double Dog Extra Loser?
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)So, no.
brooklynite
(94,519 posts)bunnies
(15,859 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)And you think he can win the GE? Whatever
PCPrincess
(68 posts)as I am about the voters who vote based on things like, emotion, resentment, parental influence, media influence, misinformation, bigotry in any form, or just plain selfishness. FAR FAR too often, human beings tend to make bad choices in many areas, and a majority is not in any way an indication of what is the best.
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)I didn't know you'd been chosen to represent us.
Kudos.
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)phantom power
(25,966 posts)I do think she ought to be wondering how Sanders turned this into an actual contest.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Will he win the nomination? No
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Put very plainly, any public official with a vested interest in things going on the way they have been since SCOTUS put Junior into office is part of the establishment.
Also, any public figure (not official) who also has a vested interest in things going on the way they have been is also part of the Establishment.
Thus, if I am an acknowledged "good guy" who is comfortable with playing the game the way its been played, then I am part of the Establishment.
And the Establishment is the overwhelming force opposing Sanders' campaign.
And they are stuck. Even without the support of Wall Street and private prisons and the DNC and all of the neo-cons lusting for a war with Iran, and Henry Kissinger, and Rahm Emmanuel, and the folks that make cluster bombs and landmines, etc., etc., the campaign rolls on despite being opposed by the most well known female politician in the world and the network of cronies she has built up over a quarter century.
Read that sentence again. Is it possible there is no reason for the fact that Sanders has come this far with everything stacked against him does not give the movers and shakers pause? Would they rather lose than allow Sanders, and the people fueling his campaign to succeed.
This current campaign reminds me of an explanation given once that you cannot change things because if you did you would change things and nobody wants to change things. I couldn't believe my ears at hearing someone stand in front of an audience and offer that rationale for, well, not changing things.
I'm hearing it again and it still amazes.
I will vote for the Democratic nominee, no matter what, or who. I wonder though how many people who want things to change would prefer not to vote for HRC and the Establishment. I wonder how many would take the chance of voting for the lead GOPuke clown because he, despite his own best efforts, will bring things crashing down.
I guess we'll see in November.
amborin
(16,631 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)LonePirate
(13,419 posts)I'm not sure where you picked up that misinformation.
PCPrincess
(68 posts)There were, in fact, exit polls. Whether or not they were conducted by 'officials' is not pertinent.
LonePirate
(13,419 posts)Evidently some bare bones exit polling was conducted yesterday by an outlet I have no knowledge of and does not have the depth and experience of the regular organization.
onenote
(42,700 posts)who they voted for.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)BainsBane
(53,032 posts)Not votes in some states mean more than votes on others.
Clinton leads Bernie by 2.56 million votes and actually won more votes than Bernie yesterday.
I have no doubt he'll stay in as long as the money keeps coming in, but I'm guessing even that isn't as plentiful as it once was. I say that because for the first time I'm receiving emails from his campaign requesting money, despite the fact I never signed up for them and that I subscribed after receiving the first one.
Of course he'll stay in. What he won't do is win the nomination. He had a great night last night but sill fell below the targets he needs to hit to catch up with Clinton in earned delegates. Each contest in which he fails to make those targets increases the share of delegates he needs in the primaries that remain.