2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders needs to win more than 67 percent of the remaining delegates overall
But turning that passionate support into the party nomination is growing increasingly difficult. Clinton has a delegate lead of 1,223 to 920 over Sanders, according to an Associated Press analysis, an advantage that expands to 1,691-949 once the superdelegates, or party officials who can back either candidate, are included.
Based on that count, Sanders still needs to win 58 percent of the remaining delegates from primaries and caucuses to have a majority of those delegates by June's end.
His bar is even higher when the party officials are considered. He needs to win more than 67 percent of the remaining delegates overall from primaries, caucuses and the ranks of uncommitted superdelegates to prevail.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sanders-seeks-caucus-trifecta-win-to-close-delegate-gap/ar-BBqWFmD?li=BBnb7Kz
Well here is my early "congratulations" to Bernie supporters for today's wins. Enjoy them while you can.
Come back when we travel to the Eastern part of the country for a whopping.
GreydeeThos
(958 posts)Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)6chars
(3,967 posts)She has 57% of pledged delegates to this point, and he needs 58% of remaining ones. That would take a number of overwhelming victories comparable to many of Clinton's in the south. As for the super delegates, he would have to nearly sweep them. But it is likely that the ones who remain uncommitted are the ones who were less likely to support Clinton anyway.
So, in theory, possible if he could do a reverse of Hillary. But this is like a football team being down 31-0 at halftime. First off, that's a lot of points to come back from. Second, the deficit has something to do with the strength of the opponent. I think it would have to be the political comeback of the century if he does it.
Historic NY
(37,453 posts)a plus for her...He still loses ground.
thesquanderer
(11,991 posts)You don't "win" super delegates, nor are they awarded or suddenly "counted" when their own state has its primary. They can announce their preference at any time (which is why Hillary has so many already, those figures have nothing to do with whether or not a given state has voted), but they don't "count" until the day of the convention, when they can choose to support whoever they want, regardless of who they have or haven't previously supported publicly. Basically, what a SD gives you is an endorsement, and an indication of which way someone is likely to vote at the convention, depending on the circumstances of the time.
rateyes
(17,438 posts)recruits decommit from one team to another all the time.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I think a major thing Bernie fans never take into account is that Bernie is running as a Dem because he had no chance at the nomination running as an independent. He said as much. As a Dem he gets to tap into all the DNC supplied data bases and voter lists.
But he is not a Dem. As a matter of fact he has a history of bashing Dems. The super delegates are Dem party leaders. They are not going to switch allegiance to an Independent. They are invested in electing Hillary.
rateyes
(17,438 posts)Vote against Bernie when the majority of the people they represent voted for him, it might just sway their votes. How my rep votes at convention will determine whether he gets my vote this fall.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)talking about.
So many here talk about issues and then say they won't vote. You may as well say you are casting your lot with the other side.
rateyes
(17,438 posts)for real progressives. Nobody else gets my vote. I will not have my vote taken for granted ever again.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)But they keep stumbling blindly along thinking things like "He's not a Dem" and "She has experience" are what constitutes an issue.
rateyes
(17,438 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)The super-delegates will follow the popular vote.
Logical
(22,457 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)ljm2002
(10,751 posts)...not 67 percent. That is, if the superdelegates follow what they have done in the past, which is that once the people's choice is clear, they vote for that candidate at the convention.
If he does manage to do better than 58% and comes to the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates, and then the superdelegates throw a monkey-wrench into the works by voting for Hillary anyway, there will be pandemonium, guaranteed.
With that said, it is of course still most likely that Hillary will come to the convention with the most pledged delegates. But today of all days, we Bernie bros and Bernie gals will keep our hopes alive!
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)Why isn't that question asked? If they decide to vote Bernie, they can.
How about a neutral question? What percent of the remaining delegates does each need to lock this up no matter which way the superDs vote?