2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum58% of remaining delegates?
so far tonight, Bernie has claimed 84% of the delegates:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results
27/32= .844 or 84%, in states as politically different as WA and AK. Can't wait to see HI's results
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)That percentage will go up to about 59 or 60% tomorrow.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)by sliding farther behimd. Let them be happy right now. These votes for Sanders are as real as any others.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)show your work.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)by a huge landslide in Washington State and Alaska? In case you missed that information, reread the previous sentence.
My math indicates that Bernie probably has won at least his target (which various sources place at 81 delegates for him to catch up) with just those two states. And he'll win delegates in Hawaii.
So if he closes the gap with Hillary, how in the world would is percentage still needed go up?
I'm guessing you weren't very good at math in high school.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)If Bernie wins more than 58% of the delegates tonight, as he almost certainly will, the percent he needs going forward will go down, not up.
This could be called obvious: if you get a higher proportion than you need tonight, than you can afford to get a bit lower proportion after tonight, and still have gotten the proportion you needed overall. I worked it out formally using algebra, but perhaps an example is easier to understand:
RCP this afternoon had Bernie with 920 pledged delegates and Hillary with 1223. That gives 4051 - (920 + 1223) = 1908 still to be chosen. So Bernie needed 2026 - 920 = 1106 to win or 1106/1908 = 57.97% (about 58%, as you said). And Hillary needed 2026 - 1223 = 803 to win or 803/1908 = 42.09% to win.
Now assume tonight's 142 delegates go 99 to Bernie and 43 to Hillary (i.e. 70% to Bernie).
New situation: Bernie will have 920 + 99 = 1019 and Hillary will have 1223 + 43 = 1266. That will give 4051 - (1019 +1266) = 1766 delegates still to be chosen. So Bernie will need 2026 - 1019 = 1007 to win or 1007/1766 = 57.02% (less than 58%, as I said). And Hillary will need 2026 - 1266 = 760 to win or 760/1766 = 43.04% (more than 42%).
Thank you for giving me a chance to work out the math!
(For what it's worth, by algebra, if he gets any percentage over 58% tonight, his percent needed going forward will be less than it was before tonight.)
jfern
(5,204 posts)eomer
(3,845 posts)karynnj
(59,504 posts)Given that he exceeded that percent today, it actually will go DOWN slightly for the remainder. Still very daunting.
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)Oh well.
Maybe they went to a Hillary rally.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)eomer
(3,845 posts)As of this morning the percentage of remaining pledged delegates that Bernie needs went down to about 56.5%.
Needed to have a majority: 2,026
Current Bernie count: 1,032
Bernie needs: 2,026 - 1,032 = 994
Remaining total: 1,759
Percent of remaining: 994 / 1,759 = 56.5%
This is based on the following current results from yesterday:
Washington: Bernie 68, Hillary 21
Alaska: Bernie 13, Hillary 3
Hawaii: Bernie 17, Hillary 8
There are 12 pledged delegates for Washington not yet allocated.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)Of the 117 from the link (101 WA and 15 AK), what is the 32?
demwing
(16,916 posts)27+5 =32
27/32 = 84%
As I said in my OP, these are the numbers so far...
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)I must have visually skipped right over that part
edgineered
(2,101 posts)not the totals. We all know how bad the election results are with incomplete information. For now they are showing 9/0 out of 15 in AK, and 18/5 (eta: out of 101) in WA. At least that's how it looks at this point.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)(Rhetorical)
edgineered
(2,101 posts)I find it frustrating that at the end of the day they don't update, the numbers stay the same and yet the 30 second count-down clock continues to run. Select Minnesota for example: https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/minnesota/ WTF?
LiberalFighter
(51,085 posts)I use Green Papers as my source.
edgineered
(2,101 posts)The WP has UT at 26+6 out of 33 (one short), and ID at 17+5 out of 23 (also one short). There are probably many other discrepancies if one were to look for them, but why bother when there is no confidence in their reporting.
Most people are not as critical of numbers that don't add up or votes that don't get counted.
LiberalFighter
(51,085 posts)Green Papers updates regularly. From what I can tell they have it automatically calculate the delegates when they just input the actual votes. On their front page they identify recent changes.
edgineered
(2,101 posts)Response to edgineered (Reply #13)
Ruby the Liberal This message was self-deleted by its author.
Jenny_92808
(1,342 posts)thread "Why Hillary Needs Sanders to Drop Out of the Race (and Sanders Has No Need for Hillary to Drop Out)"
I can't help but disagree with your position, so buh bye.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)Did you bother to read that thread?
Lorien
(31,935 posts)we also need to insist on a re-vote in AZ, or cast out ALL of their delegates!
demwing
(16,916 posts)eases the challenge for the remaining states.
edgineered
(2,101 posts)Alaska went 13/3 to Sanders
Washington went 73/28 also to Sanders.
That's 86/31 for a net gain/loss of 55 pledged delegates. As we know, HI has to report on its 25.
demwing
(16,916 posts)but only by 15 points instead of 25.
I'll definitely take that!
edgineered
(2,101 posts)86/117 = 73.5%
What bothers me is how the news will play out for the next few weeks. There's only WI and WY before NY on April 19th. They have only 100 delegates combined, so for the next 3 weeks Clinton is going to coast, preparing for the big win in NY. What the pundits and the press will do then is express how shocked they are that Bernie has flat-lined, etc. Don't fall for the bull that will be served up.
Zira
(1,054 posts)NY is not South Carolina. Just saying. I'm not writing off NY. Even though I'm the only person in America who is not. I think they're very informed about what is going on, Wall Street jobs in the state or not.
BTW, my brother who was supporting Trump, switched to Bernie today. So did his wife. I do not understand how that happend but he told me Bernie is the only one with good ideas and Trump was okay until he turned so racist.
Autumn Colors
(2,379 posts)Do NOT write off NY!!!
A) People in way upstate NY are familiar with Bernie .... Vermont is right next door
B) HRC may get the rich people's votes in NYC ... but Bernie's a native Brooklynite! I bet he wins Brooklyn precincts at least -- probably not Manhattan, though.
C) HRC will probably win Westchester County and Long Island with near ties in Putnam, Rockland, and Dutchess (NYC commuter counties)
D) I bet the rest of upstate ... a YUUUUGE area ... goes for Bernie big time. Don't forget that whole swath of NY State that sits just above Pennsylvania. They've seen what fracking has done to PA, so that's a big issue for them.
She might have been elected Senator but she is NOT a NY native. A lot of people consider her a carpetbagger.
DO NOT GIVE UP ON NEW YORK STATE. It isn't all New York CITY and rich bankers.
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)Go Bernie Go!
morningfog
(18,115 posts)It's gonna be a fun one.
edgineered
(2,101 posts)in rural upstate, my city cousins would visit. It is doubtful that they support reptilian throwbacks either.
Autumn Colors
(2,379 posts)edgineered
(2,101 posts)The importance of NY cannot be understated. With 247 delegates, each 1% swing in the vote amounts to either a 2 or 3 delegate change for both candidates, eg, 51% is a difference of 5 delegates (126/121). Because it doesn't divide out equally for each percentage of change, a rule of thumb is that 5% of the vote means a difference of roughly 12 delegates. An outcome of 55/45 would end up as 136/111 (12+12+one more).
See this link: http://demrace.com/ It's fretful trying to get the totals you want to see from the numbers you want to play. Have fun.