Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

wyldwolf

(43,870 posts)
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:12 AM Mar 2016

Why did Bernie Sanders dominate Saturday? Caucuses in states with smaller black populations.

Sen. Bernie Sanders had the best night of his presidential campaign on Saturday, dominating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the Washington, Hawaii and Alaska state caucuses by wide margins. He cut into Clinton's pledged-delegate lead by at least one-sixth and potentially more. It was the sort of night that he needs more of.

But which he's almost certainly not going to get.

The reason it was such a big night for Sanders was that he dominated in Washington state, beating Clinton by more than 40 points. Washington has a big delegate total, so splitting up the delegates gave Sanders a big margin. His giant wins in Alaska and Hawaii were icing on that cake.

But Alaska and Washington had two characteristics that made them very friendly terrain for Sanders: They were caucuses in predominantly non-black states. And there aren't many more of those on the calendar.

As we've noted before, there's also a clear link between the number of black voters in a contest and the result. Alaska is four percent black; Washington, about the same.

Here, Hawaii is an outlier, at 13 percent black. But Sanders's night wasn't big because of Hawaii. It was big because of his margin in Washington.

There are still three more caucuses on the Democratic calendar, all of them very small contests: Wyoming, Guam and the Virgin Islands. Also left on the calendar? A lot of big, diverse states holding primaries. Washington and Alaska were caucus states with small black populations. That's as good as it gets for Bernie Sanders.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/27/why-did-bernie-sanders-dominate-saturday-caucuses-in-whiter-states/

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Why did Bernie Sanders dominate Saturday? Caucuses in states with smaller black populations. (Original Post) wyldwolf Mar 2016 OP
We've seen this same anomaly a number of times in this cycle. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #1
so it isn't a real win if it isn't a state with a large black population? How about people voted for roguevalley Mar 2016 #41
Sizeable numbers of Asians, Native Americans, and Pacific Islanders. HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #2
Increasing numbers of Latinos in WA, too suffragette Mar 2016 #37
Thats what the news outlets are pointing out Iliyah Mar 2016 #3
Any way you look at it, her lead took a huge dent yesterday. /nt Marr Mar 2016 #30
A bunch of racial shit-stirring reportage based on faulty logic. Wilms Mar 2016 #4
Sanders doesn't good in states with sizable black populations. Marr Mar 2016 #29
The whining today is both laughable and pitiful. libtodeath Mar 2016 #5
there is even a thread where they say he elbowed his wife away when she told him about the roguevalley Mar 2016 #42
And if Bernie were the nominee I'm sure all AAs will vote for Trump Armstead Mar 2016 #6
lol....not only vote but canvas their community to get Segami Mar 2016 #19
"That's as good as it gets for Sanders" Docreed2003 Mar 2016 #7
This is disgusting. Barack_America Mar 2016 #8
And what really hurts Clinton is that floriduck Mar 2016 #9
Electoral College format elects the President and Vice President of the Iliyah Mar 2016 #11
Let's see how well that works out floriduck Mar 2016 #14
Early electoral wins of course lucky number 365 Iliyah Mar 2016 #21
She has no further path to the nomination Live Bait Mar 2016 #40
Stop with the racial division marions ghost Mar 2016 #10
"Stop with the racial division ... Leave it to tRump." +1000! nt slipslidingaway Mar 2016 #23
If he stays viable his support among AAs will probably grow.. speaktruthtopower Mar 2016 #12
Right marions ghost Mar 2016 #24
Your post has put bernie supporters on an emotional rollercoaster. dubyadiprecession Mar 2016 #13
If Bernie is the nominee PoC will vote for him. Avalux Mar 2016 #15
He carried my neighborhood and it's very black NWCorona Mar 2016 #16
DU rec for all kinds of reasons...nt SidDithers Mar 2016 #17
how do republicans do in caucus states? do they turn out in lessor or greater numbers then Ds? Sunlei Mar 2016 #18
Alaska is 33% nonwhite XemaSab Mar 2016 #20
Aw sour grapes for Easter breakfast. morningfog Mar 2016 #22
Hawaii is the least white State in the Union, but it does not have 13% black people 2.5% is the Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #25
Might want to be careful with racial politics and the implications HassleCat Mar 2016 #26
This strained twisting of reality to fit the narrative is getting pretty funny. /nt Marr Mar 2016 #27
"They were caucuses in predominantly non-black states." Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #28
stop with this divisive racial politics, especially since it's based on falsehoods amborin Mar 2016 #31
What can I say? LostOne4Ever Mar 2016 #32
why are you making this a racism thing. Perogie Mar 2016 #33
Closet conservatives. HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #39
Sounds like you're saying Hillary is not very popular with whites, native Americans, Doctor_J Mar 2016 #34
You know a state with a small percent of black voters? California paulthompson Mar 2016 #35
Because the Democrats who voted yesterday were more progressive and race was not an issue (Hawaii Vote2016 Mar 2016 #36
The caucus format has been his better environment KingFlorez Mar 2016 #38
More race baiting. When will it stop? ThePhilosopher04 Mar 2016 #43

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
41. so it isn't a real win if it isn't a state with a large black population? How about people voted for
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:50 PM
Mar 2016

the candidate that they trusted and believed in? How about they voted for the candidate that actually really cares about them?

suffragette

(12,232 posts)
37. Increasing numbers of Latinos in WA, too
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 01:35 PM
Mar 2016

Guess that doesn't count as diversity to WAPO since they write this as a contrast?

"A lot of big, diverse states holding primaries."

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
3. Thats what the news outlets are pointing out
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:16 AM
Mar 2016

And that HRC is still commanding on the delegates and popular votes.

 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
4. A bunch of racial shit-stirring reportage based on faulty logic.
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:21 AM
Mar 2016
Here, Hawaii is an outlier, at 13 percent black. But Sanders's night wasn't big because of Hawaii. It was big because of his margin in Washington.




OK. Sure. Whatever you say, WAPO.
 

Marr

(20,317 posts)
29. Sanders doesn't good in states with sizable black populations.
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 12:20 PM
Mar 2016

Except when he does. Then those states don't count.

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
42. there is even a thread where they say he elbowed his wife away when she told him about the
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:51 PM
Mar 2016

washington win. There is no low deep enough for them.l

Docreed2003

(16,875 posts)
7. "That's as good as it gets for Sanders"
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:24 AM
Mar 2016

Pundits have been saying that phrase and moving the goalposts on what that means since last summer. Instead of crapping on the win and insulting people of color in those three states, why not give credit to the Sanders campaign and celebrate the fact that the Sanders campaign is forcing the Dem party to look left and hopefully move left, something they've not done in a long time.

 

floriduck

(2,262 posts)
9. And what really hurts Clinton is that
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:26 AM
Mar 2016

at least Hawaii and Washington have a long history of voting Democratic in the GE. Can't say that about states like South Carolina, Florida, Georgia and her firewallers. Ouch, that has to still sting.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
11. Electoral College format elects the President and Vice President of the
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:58 AM
Mar 2016

United States of America. Each states have number of electors. Ohio and Florida, Iowa, Nevada (which HRC won) are part of that early format in winning.

 

floriduck

(2,262 posts)
14. Let's see how well that works out
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 10:29 AM
Mar 2016

in states like Washington versus Alabama. Would you, as a Clinton supporter, rather run against a Republican in the southern states or the pacific northwes states?

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
21. Early electoral wins of course lucky number 365
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 10:51 AM
Mar 2016

Plus Penn, WI, NC, Missouri, Indiana to name a few. The west most likely go with the Democratic Party's nominee, which will be HRC.

 

Live Bait

(93 posts)
40. She has no further path to the nomination
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:18 PM
Mar 2016

Her firewall ended three weeks ago, and Bernie did better than expected.

Now Bernie's on a roll, and he'll be the Democratic nominee at the end. Count on that.

New York and PA are not Clinton's firewall. They are, in fact, her downfall.

speaktruthtopower

(800 posts)
12. If he stays viable his support among AAs will probably grow..
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 10:03 AM
Mar 2016

as he becomes better know outside the Northeast. But can he stay viable and is it too late?

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
24. Right
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 11:59 AM
Mar 2016

no question about it.

Can he stay viable? Only with a lot of work and support from everyone who can possibly lend any.

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
15. If Bernie is the nominee PoC will vote for him.
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 10:40 AM
Mar 2016

All the teeth-gnashing about yesterday from Hillary's camp....I guess you have to spin those landslides however you can.

Sunlei

(22,651 posts)
18. how do republicans do in caucus states? do they turn out in lessor or greater numbers then Ds?
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 10:44 AM
Mar 2016

I think turnout number percentage will be closer to percentage of voters who turn out in the general election.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
25. Hawaii is the least white State in the Union, but it does not have 13% black people 2.5% is the
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 12:08 PM
Mar 2016

US census number. Native peoples and Asians and others are also minorities and PoC, denial of their existence is not helping Hillary one bit.

 

HassleCat

(6,409 posts)
26. Might want to be careful with racial politics and the implications
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 12:14 PM
Mar 2016

1. White people don't matter. People who live in flyover America don't matter. Etc.

2. Diversity means black people. Latinos, Pacific Islanders, Native Americans, etc. do not contribute to diversity.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
28. "They were caucuses in predominantly non-black states."
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 12:19 PM
Mar 2016

This is a new alternative phrasing replacing "overwhelmingly white" to describe states that Sanders won. Why the change from the standard pro-Hilary mantra of the last two months? Because Bernie is now wining enough significantly "diverse" states - like Colorado, Washington, and Alaska that describing them as"overwhelmingly white" starts to sound laughable. And then of course there is Hawaii, which is by far the least white state in the nation, where Sanders won over 70% of the vote. And then there was Michigan which had a primary with a significant black population that Sanders won also.

Somehow I don't think the phrase "non-black states" carries the same rhetoric punch as "overwhelmingly white states" for political spin purposes.

Perogie

(687 posts)
33. why are you making this a racism thing.
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 12:57 PM
Mar 2016

Something is wrong with people that turn everything into racism.

 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
34. Sounds like you're saying Hillary is not very popular with whites, native Americans,
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 01:01 PM
Mar 2016

Hawaiians of all cultures, and liberals. That's pretty harsh IMO.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
35. You know a state with a small percent of black voters? California
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 01:22 PM
Mar 2016

It's true that Sanders has done especially poorly with Black voters. However, only 6.7% of California's population is Black.

I think it's all going to come down to California. Anything is possible if Sanders has a big win there.

It's true that Sanders has done less well with Latino voters, and California has a lot of Latino voters. But there are states where he's gotten about 50% of the Latino vote, like Nevada and Illinois. In the latest California poll, he's losing the Latino vote by about 55% to 35%, which already is not that bad. He also has been doing very well with Asian American voters (as Hawaii showed last night), and there are a lot of those in California.

If he can improve his numbers with Latinos and win White and Asian Americans by big amounts, he could easily have a landslide win in California without improving his numbers with the relatively small percentage of Black voters in that state at all.

Surprisingly, Sanders isn't doing that well with White voters in California, only winning them by about 5% in the latest poll. Judging by other states, those numbers are likely to shift massively in his favor. He's won 90% of the White vote in some states.

 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
36. Because the Democrats who voted yesterday were more progressive and race was not an issue (Hawaii
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 01:31 PM
Mar 2016

and Washington are fairly diverse racially).

Regardless of race, Sanders does less well among conservative Democrats who look back on Bill Clinton's welfare "reform," enhanced criminal imprisonment rates, Wall Street deregulation, anti-domestic-labor "free" trade agreements, DOMA, and nation building foreign intervention as the "good old days."

Those who would rather move forward rather than accepting the status quo as the new normal prefer Sanders regardless of race.

What is your motive in dragging race into a contest that is about ideology?

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
38. The caucus format has been his better environment
Sun Mar 27, 2016, 01:38 PM
Mar 2016

And the demographic trends of the race have been fairly clear. The big problem for Sanders is that the caucuses are mostly over and there is a big block of closed primaries coming up.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Why did Bernie Sanders do...