He has no credibility with me.

They were the delegates he needed to win in each state to win. He is still well behind where he needs to be because he seldom meets his targets.

the caucuses showed that yesterday. Nate Silver is not reliable

Last edited Sun Mar 27, 2016, 09:09 PM - Edit history (2)

all he did several months ago was lay out the most likely path for Bernie to win and assign targets for each state.

The only take away from all this is that Bernie is underperforming by about 15% and is missing more targets than he is making.

Of course he's got a long way to go. But he has a better shot with numbers that are getting better than he would have with numbers that were getting worse!

yesterday was not some transformational event - it is merely the typical back and forth of a hard fought primary.

But, then like every kid with a new model, he started fidgeting with it, and wound up with a wrong projection for that election just 2 days before Michigan voted.

He picked up:
13 in AK
18 in HI
74 in WA

Bernie earned 105 delegates

We cannot blindly trust what the PTB and media says.

eta: here: http://demrace.com/

A: Because they love the Bern in Hawaii!!!

Someday, I am going to move to Hawaii.

There is nothing to get wrong

The OP uses 538's reporting of Sanders earning 98 delegates - go back up and look, you'll see it. Then click on the link and look at how many delegates 538 is reporting as going to Sanders. This is known as reporting on an event that has already transpired, not a prediction.

It may be difficult to understand but there is a difference between saying what will happen and being wrong about it, and saying what did happen and being wrong about. One is an opinion and one is a lie. Usually one easily deals with a mistaken opinion, we all have them. Others choose to deny that they are wrong and are called liars.

something Bernie has not been very successful at when you look at every state that has voted. That is why he is losing by such a large margin. My only point.

That would make the OP specific to a particular target and nothing more. But anyway, we're here to have fun, not to discuss politics. (?)

Not good.

That's why meeting his target last week, and substantially exceeding it this week, are encouraging moves in the right direction. But of course, the odds are still way against him. The point is, they're getting slightly better. A couple of days ago, predictwise gave him only a 5% chance of winning the nomination, now it's almost doubled to a 9% chance. It's not going to turn around overnight, this was about the best and Sanders supporter could have hoped for out of this weekend.

Given the makeup of the democratic electorate in different states, and assuming a 50-50 national split, the targets say what we would expect each candidate to do in each state, e.g., in New Hampshire, the demographics favor Bernie so Hillary's target was 9, Bernie's was 15. Both met their target exactly. In other states she has a higher target than 50% or he does.

In southern states, she tended to exceed her targets. In a lot of his states Bernie has exceeded his targets. I think the targets tend to understate the victor's advantage in each state.

There is a difference between 538's predictions and the results. Not everyone is an idiot. When the referenced site

13 Alaska
17 Hawaii
25 Washington state

= 55

Numbers based on NY Times http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0

The number currently shown there is 104.

The NYT page you cited is obviously not final, as it shows 55 for Sanders and 20 for Clinton, which only totals 75, despite 142 delegates available.

And Clinton picked up 31, or 75 if you include Arizona as well which was on the same day as Utah and Idaho.

Which is why even with Sanders wins yesterday, he is still almost 270 delegates behind. It appears that he only netted about 25 delegates over Clinton yesterday.

As I said in the OP, for yesterday's date, it states:

"142 delegates were at stake in 3 contests. "

And the highlighted states are shown, as expected: Washington, Hawaii, Alaska.

The 538 link shows Sanders with 74 delegates in Washington. NY Times shows him with only 25