Ahead.

And the schedule tells me Wisconsin is a tossup, Bernie wins Wyoming by similar margins as Idaho, Utah.

He then loses New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, and possibly Rhode Island.

You're entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to my vote. If you think everyone will change from Bernie to her. Good luck with that. She will NEVER be POTUS because 67% of the country think she's a liar. Those #'s don't elect presidents.

Same for those who don't support him if he wins.

I have 16 primaries/caucuses to 6 for Hillary vs Bern left.

Good stuff.

the embedded assumption that 'truth' will come from the mainstream media general consensus....

You can wait for general consensus in the mainstream media to recognize that Sanders has a chance until hell freezes over and it will never happen.

in 2008 after he won the popular vote.

Bernie can do the same if his momentum continues, such as winning California by a large margin and some other states. He is only behind by around 250 delegates or so if you discount the superdelegates.

No wonder Hillary is ducking a debate in New York. Bernie has his sparrow, Trump his eagle, and Hillary has shown what her "bird" symbol must be:

...are you prepared to acknowledge that Sanders is over 2 million votes behind, and that victories in small caucus states don't positively affect the popular vote total for him?

The Superdelegates should switch.

I also agree that if Clinton holds onto leads in those categories, the Superdelegates should support her.

At least this should be the case in each superdelegate's specific state, reflecting the will of the voters, not themselves.

Most of which are closed Democratic primaries that Hillary leads up to 30% or more.

No path.

Weirder things have happened. He has momentum. We'll know before too much longer.

Over performance reopened the map.

any state below that raises that target - any state he wins by more than that lowers his target.

So that means he has to average winning by a minimum of 14.6 points per state as of now.

When the committed supers are figured in, that grows to 67.3% - or average winning by over 34 points!

A real mountain to climb.

Thank you for your nicely detailed reply.

On how many people he is able to get to the polls and whether opinion polls are accurately reflecting actual voter sentiment. In other words...it's not math.

states and by solid margins.


He is not going to carry NY.

He needs to fight her to a deadlock in all of the following states:

New York (closed primary)
Pennsylvania (closed primary)
Maryland (closed primary)
Delaware (closed primary)
Connecticut (closed primary)
New Jersey (closed primary)
New Mexico (closed primary)
Kentucky (closed primary)

and then win 75% of the vote in California.

Although a simple majority of pledged delegates will not clinch the nomination, it will make it very difficult for the super-delegates to deny him the nomination.

Path # 2:
Currently Bernie has won 45% of the pledged delegates. If he maintains this rate he will not win a majority but he will prevent Clinton from reaching the 2383 pledged delegates necessary for clinching the nomination without super-delegates.

The super-delegates are politicians, their first and overriding concern is winning. The GOP has its convention first. If after the GOP convention the polls show that Bernie is a significantly stronger candidate against the GOP nominee then is Hillary (as most polls now indicate), The super-delegates may decide to go with the best candidate.

per Path #2.

If Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates, that's the end of the conversation. Superdelegates won't even return Tad Devine's calls.

If Sanders wins a majority of pledged delegates, you would see a bunch cross over to him.

polls show Hillary with a 5 point lead over Trump and Sanders with a 15 point lead (along with being the only candidate whose favorability rating is over 50%).

The primaries will be ancient history by then. Politicians are loyal when its convenient, and fairness doesn't win elections. And since winning is the only thing that matters, super-delegates would likely place their bet on the horse with the best odds.

The superdelegates are not going to steal the nomination for a guy to whom they owe absolutely nothing, who isn't even a Democrat.

So superdelegates are unacceptable if they go for Clinton but acceptable if they go for Bernie?

Do Bernie supporters not realize how biased they are, and how obvious this is to anyone who is not similarly biased?

Clinton does much better in large, diverse states. And in closed primaries. Unless those patterns suddenly get flipped upside down, Sanders has no chance.

A month from now, I expect Clinton to lead by about 350 pledged delegates. The final pledged delegate count will likely be in the ballpark of 2200-1850.

He needs to win the second half of the primary season by roughly as much as Clinton won the first half of the primary season (WA/AK/HI was the start of the second half, delegate-wise). That will take posting the kinds of wins he got in WA in states like WV, KY, and IN, and slogging to narrow victories in places like NY and PA.

So, yes, that's "realistic" for some value of the term, but it's a long shot.

gonna say?