538: Bernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He’s About To Run Out Of Them
Sanderss strength in caucuses may also be, in part, coincidental. Every state that has held or will hold a Democratic caucus this year has a black population at or below 10 percent of the states total population, and black voters have been among Clintons strongest demographic groups. Without those black voters, Clinton just cant match the enthusiasm of Sanderss backers. (In Southern states, where Clinton romped, her voters were far more enthusiastic than Sanderss supporters were.)
Now, I know what some of you are thinking: How do we know that Sanderss big wins this week arent a sign that something more fundamental about the Democratic race has changed? We dont, necessarily. But look at the calendar: Sanders also outperformed his delegate targets in Colorado, Kansas and Maine earlier this month, and he still went on to suffer big losses on March 15. And that was after his shocking Michigan victory. Moreover, Sanders greatly underperformed his delegate targets last Tuesday in Arizona, which held a primary and has a more diverse electorate.
Most likely, Sanders will need to find another way to make up ground on Clinton in the delegate race. Wyoming (April 9) and North Dakota (June 7) are the only remaining stateside caucuses. The rest of the stateside races are primaries. Sanders has exceeded his delegate targets in just three stateside primaries. Hes matched them in three and underperformed in 15. Given that Sanders is still so far behind in the delegate count, he needs to outperform his delegate targets by a lot.
How likely is that? Well, hes behind by about 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEights weighted polling average. Thats not a huge deficit, and it wouldnt shock me if Sanders won Wisconsin given that the black population there is below 10 percent. (To match his delegate target in Wisconsin, he needs a net gain of 10 delegates there.) Sanders, though, will likely have more difficulty in later primaries in April, such as Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania, where African Americans make up more than 10 percent of the states population.
Sanders had a strong week, and this has been a crazy year in politics. But theres nothing in the recent results to suggest that the overall trajectory of the Democratic race has changed. Clinton was and is a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/