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Anatomy of a bounce--Princeton Election Consortium
Anatomy of a bounce
O
ctober 21st, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang
In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obama’s recovery is now apparent.
It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin – the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie – has moved by over 1.0%. Today, the President’s effective lead, using Electoral College mechanisms, is Obama +1.8%. A rapid move like this can continue for a few days as polls catch up with the nation’s mental state.
But why do national polls continue to look so close, and in about half of cases good for Mitt Romney? To answer that, let’s take a look back at the effects of all three debates so far. [Read more ?]
In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obama’s recovery is now apparent.
It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin – the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie – has moved by over 1.0%. Today, the President’s effective lead, using Electoral College mechanisms, is Obama +1.8%. A rapid move like this can continue for a few days as polls catch up with the nation’s mental state.
But why do national polls continue to look so close, and in about half of cases good for Mitt Romney? To answer that, let’s take a look back at the effects of all three debates so far. [Read more ?]
http://election.princeton.edu/
4 replies
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K & R 
"I will be interested to see if on Election Day, the national vote and the electoral vote count still show this discrepancy. If both are accurate, President Obama’s re-elect probability is about 90% – but his probability of winning the popular vote is lower, about 70%."
