2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe 4 Things You Need to Know About Bernie Sanders’ Historic Comeback
The author presents an outstanding support for the significance of these points.
03/29/2016 09:38 am ET | Updated 21 hours ago
Seth Abramson
Assistant Professor of English at University of New Hampshire; Series Co-Editor, Best American Experimental Writing
<snip>
...everything thats happening now in the Clinton-Sanders race was predicted, long ago, by either Sanders himself or the hard data of this election season. Moreover, none of whats happening is a surprise to the politicos on the Clinton side, either; thats one reason theyre working overtime to control and then shift the narrative from the inevitability of a major Sanders comeback. While its still up in the air whether that comeback will be total or near-total, only by manipulating the narrative can the Clinton campaign keep Sanders at bay.
And thats why understanding that whats happening now is no more or less than what was readily predictable a year ago is crucial to understanding the current state of the Democratic primary race. This means unpacking not just the Clinton camps transparent attempts to skew the media narrative, but also, and more importantly, the hard data behind a comeback that could end up being every bit as historic as Sanders supporters are now suggesting it will be.
So here are the four items every voter needs to have a handle on as we enter the vortex of nonsense the Clinton campaign sent spinning into the election season as soon as Sanders eliminated 22.5% of her delegate lead in just twelve hours of voting in three states.
1. Hillary Clintons reversal of her position on super-delegates.
<snip>
2. The certainty that Sanders would fall way behind in the first half of the nominating season, only to come roaring back in its latter half.
<snip>
3. The Clinton camps use of the media to spin its chances of clinching the nomination via pledged delegates.
<snip>
4. Sanders growing ability to meet or exceed his delegate targets almost everywhere.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/the-4-things-you-need-to-know-about-bernie-sanders-historic-comeback_b_9557952.html
Cue Camp Hillary's Immediate Dismissive Execution of the Messenger
5
4
3
2
...
bigtree
(85,998 posts)...I like fan fiction as much as the next person, but this is just sophistry.
Experimental Writing Fail.
Logical
(22,457 posts)reddread
(6,896 posts)Timber!
morningfog
(18,115 posts)bigtree
(85,998 posts)...this is wishful thinking on your part.
None of the anecdotal, empirical, or any other evidence supports the claim that Sanders is 'roaring back.'
morningfog
(18,115 posts)I gave you empirical numbers. He has cut her lead by 100. And he will cut it by more in upcoming contests.
I have never said he will win the nomination or it is anything but damn difficult. It is also not impossible.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Darb
(2,807 posts)I think he is still way behind, am I wrong?
Avalux
(35,015 posts)I wouldn't call that way behind.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton - 1266
Bernie Sanders -1038
1266-1038=228
228 divided by 1266 =18%
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Assuming these delegate counts to be accurate, in order to determine percentage lead . . .
Pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton - 1266
Bernie Sanders -1038
1266-1038=228
1266+1038=2304 (the total number of delegates)
228 divided by 2304=.099=9.9%
Not 6%, but not 18% either
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)Assigned delegates 1266+1038=2304
Clinton 1266/2304*100 -> 55% of delegates
Sanders 1038/2304*100 -> 45% of delegates
Alternatively 228/2304*100 -> 10% of delegates
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)which bears only a passing resemblance to the math used by everyone else in the world.
Sid
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Darb
(2,807 posts)No big. Keep on doing whatever it is that you are doing. A close loss, if you can call it close, is still a loss.
artyteacher
(598 posts)Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)Darb
(2,807 posts)they are more enthusiastic, ya know. So they should win because they are enthusiastic. That and Hillary voters know she has it in the bag and don't want to have to go to a ridiculous caucus event in order to cast a simple vote.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)If he wins New York by 10% then he's back in the game.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)fun to watch HRC supporters avoid this point, 56%...
All Bernie needs to achieve from the remaining primaries is 56% or better and he beats HRC
Simple truth...
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)are using the bougus sd's to pad Hillarys lead, that's how we know they are in deep doodoo right now
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)If you've listened to Thom, you know how even keeled he is but he was really shocked last weekend when Cokie Roberts used the superdelegates and the 74% numbers on NPR. He was disgusted.
He says he doesn't watch any of the cable any more, but he does watch CNN because he said none of the others have any liberals but CNN must be noticing this because they are starting to have Katrina vanden Heuvel, Van Jones and someone else on more frequently lately.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts)It wont be anything positive about Bernies appeal and accomplishment, it will be like "Why can't Hillary seal the deal".
Because our Press Sucks.
Darb
(2,807 posts)they all cry foul at the media too. So with you guys it is not the "liberal" media, it is the "corporate" media? Simple fact is that most people don't watch that shit.
salinsky
(1,065 posts)A+ for creativity!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid