NYT: Hillary Clinton favored to grow her delegate lead over the final half of the primary season

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Clinton favored to grow her delegate lead over the final half of the primary season http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/upshot/bernie-sanders-faces-tougher-terrain-after-a-big-week.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 …


Clinton Favored the Rest of the Way

Hillary Clinton could win about 54 percent of the remaining delegates, according to estimates for coming primaries based on demographic trends. She needs 44 percent to win a majority of pledged delegates.

Bernie Sanders had a great week. He won big in five Western caucuses: Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Utah and Hawaii. It was enough to whittle Hillary Clinton’s pledged-delegate lead to around 230, despite her own solid win in Arizona.

To get to a majority, not counting superdelegates, Mr. Sanders now needs more than 56 percent of the remaining pledged delegates.

It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for him. Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink. The remaining states force Mr. Sanders to confront his big weaknesses: affluence, diversity, establishment-friendly areas and closed primary contests...

Mr. Sanders has the potential to win several states with more than 56 percent of the vote, like North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana — and even Oregon, South Dakota and Wisconsin. But these states are worth just 13 percent of the remaining delegates.

Mrs. Clinton could easily win many of the contests along the more diverse and affluent East Coast in primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and the District of Columbia.

Even if Mrs. Clinton doesn’t fare as well as the projections suggest, Mr. Sanders is very unlikely to win by a double-digit margin. He will have to make up for those delegates elsewhere.

Mr. Sanders has better opportunities to win in California, Indiana, Kentucky, New Mexico and Rhode Island. But he is not a clear favorite in these states, and may be considered an underdog in the biggest prize: California.

But Mr. Sanders needs more than merely a win in California. He needs to win there by at least 20 percentage points, considering that he is unlikely to win at least 56 percent of the vote along the Acela Corridor.

So far, Mr. Sanders has won only two of the 21 primaries by more than 16 points: Vermont, his home state, and neighboring New Hampshire.



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