I am sure they have some methodology, but at least to me, when they throw in leaners, it should be 50-46.

Total
Democrat Barack Obama ................................................... 48
Lean Democrat Barack Obama ........................................... 2
Republican Mitt Romney .................................................... 45
Lean Republican Mitt Romney ............................................ 1
(Other candidate) ................................................................ 2
Lean (Other candidate) ........................................................ -
(Undecided) ........................................................................ 1
(Refused) ............................................................................ 2
(Will not vote in 2012) .......................................................... -
Total Democrat Barack Obama ....................................... 49
Total Republican Mitt Romney ........................................ 46
Total (Other candidate) ..................................................... 2

That would produce 49.2.

good point...likely just rounding.

how reliable this pollster is?

A larger proportion of Romney's current support expresses some willingness to switch their vote, compared to Obama supporters. (12% of Romney's support is soft, compared to 8% for Obama).

African American participation in 08 was 13%. They have it at 11%.

and any time I see one that looks bad for us, my stomach fills with acid. I console myself with Princeton Election Consortium and 538, but these guys (Democracy Corps) appear to have a serious agenda for our side, if you go to their home page. Doesn't mean they're not accurate, but I'll take it with a grain of salt.

Disclaimer: No, I'm not a troll. No, I'm not threadcrapping. I have even been donating money to MoveOn.org's efforts to counteract the voter intimidation billboards in Ohio (and they're being taken down!) because there's precious little I can do here from TN.

I just don't want to be lulled to sleep by agenda-driven polls. Please prove me wrong, I'd love to be wrong on this one.

run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg.

Now, whether their polling is skewed, I don't know.

My favorite line from Boyz In The Hood was when Trey's dad is telling him the importance of math in the SAT. You can argue that the verbal portion is culturally biased but math is math.

Nate's methodology is somewhat opaque. All Sam Wang does is take the median poll number for every state and averages them. Hard to see or introduce a bias there.

When I said "these guys" I meant Democracy Corps," not Silver and Wang. I'll go correct that now.