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Spitfire of ATJ

(32,723 posts)
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 01:45 PM Oct 2012

New email: NBC News/WSJ Poll shows Democrats winning both houses of Congress 45% to 43%

Friends -- we just got a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showing Democrats leading the race for Congress, 45% to 43%.

That means we’re in range of replacing Boehner and Cantor’s Tea Party majority with a Democratic House for President Obama!

Now we have to close the spending gap. Right now, Republican Super PACs are launching a $40 million dollar ad campaign against our candidates in the tightest races across the country. We’ve come too far to let these dishonest ads cost us the election.

We have 9 hours left until our next ad buy deadline: Donate $3 or more to help us fight back against Republican attacks.

We're getting calls from campaigns that are being outspent by nearly 2-to-1 in races we have to win. When the polls close on November 6th, we don’t want to have that sinking feeling that we didn’t do everything we could to close the spending gap when it mattered.

Please chip in what you can to help us fight back:

http://dccc.org/Close-The-Gap

Thanks,

Democrats 2012


34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New email: NBC News/WSJ Poll shows Democrats winning both houses of Congress 45% to 43% (Original Post) Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 OP
Woot! longship Oct 2012 #1
I've been reminding all my younger voter friends, PLEASE Vote downticket!! progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #2
GOP gerrymandering after the 2010 census leaves us with almost zero chance to take House scheming daemons Oct 2012 #3
Exactly. Gerrymandering has made it impossible. Hyper_Eye Oct 2012 #12
I don't know. The 2010 Teabagger Freshmen are so bad that even a gerrymandered district has a catbyte Oct 2012 #19
If the Congress were elected by a National Proportional Representative Vote cyclezealot Oct 2012 #21
45-43 doesn't win back the House. FBaggins Oct 2012 #4
This is my take Cosmocat Oct 2012 #11
That would be great FBaggins Oct 2012 #14
Even cutting into their margin Cosmocat Oct 2012 #17
Don't get too worked up... brooklynite Oct 2012 #5
Hallelujah Hutzpa Oct 2012 #6
I still don't think we have much chance at the House budkin Oct 2012 #7
That would be sweet liberal N proud Oct 2012 #8
If we can't take back the House sheshe2 Oct 2012 #9
HEY she!!! elleng Oct 2012 #20
elleng sheshe2 Oct 2012 #22
GREAT! Thanks to YOU, sheshe2!!! elleng Oct 2012 #28
If we don't take back the House the Republicans will waste time with Impeachment. Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #29
True... freshwest Oct 2012 #33
Make it so, fellow DUers. FSogol Oct 2012 #10
We can dream, can't we??? ailsagirl Oct 2012 #25
Misleading description of the poll question. onenote Oct 2012 #13
The ones that really get me is where they poll half rural and half urban... Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #15
Exactly. The number of House seats that would need to change are significant BainsBane Oct 2012 #16
The Republicans pushed anti-abortion laws the whole time.... Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #30
Yeah, looks like they are just using this as a plea for cash. progressoid Oct 2012 #32
WOULD HAVE sent dccc $ if they HAD helped Wayne Powell, elleng Oct 2012 #18
From these polls to the voting polls and voters n/t Smilo Oct 2012 #23
Now wouldn't that be wonderful. :) nt Javaman Oct 2012 #24
I hope dems win Congress & Exec!! n/t courseofhistory Oct 2012 #26
Yeah but we need a bigger majority in the Senate else the Pukes will block Dems there notadmblnd Oct 2012 #27
Harry Reed stated FINALLY that Republicans have abused the filibuster and could change the rules. Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #31
you can vote more than once i will tell you the secret -LOKI -BAD FOR YA Oct 2012 #34

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)
2. I've been reminding all my younger voter friends, PLEASE Vote downticket!!
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 01:50 PM
Oct 2012

I don't care if you aren't sure who someone is, if they have (D) vote for them. I want to send a clear message to the Billionaire's Club that America is not for sale.

 

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)
3. GOP gerrymandering after the 2010 census leaves us with almost zero chance to take House
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 01:51 PM
Oct 2012

But we'll hold the senate.

Hyper_Eye

(675 posts)
12. Exactly. Gerrymandering has made it impossible.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:12 PM
Oct 2012

The generic ballot means almost nothing right now. 95% of House seats are what would be called "safe seats" created through gerrymandering. Both sides are guilty of doing this. District maps need to be drawn by bipartisan panels. Then people might get real representation.

catbyte

(34,472 posts)
19. I don't know. The 2010 Teabagger Freshmen are so bad that even a gerrymandered district has a
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 04:07 PM
Oct 2012

good chance at being flipped. Actually, my district has been redrawn to slightly favor Democrats and the GOP incumbent is running behind the Democratic challenger. I think the GOP may have overplayed its hand last election.

cyclezealot

(4,802 posts)
21. If the Congress were elected by a National Proportional Representative Vote
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 04:28 PM
Oct 2012

We'd have had far fewer Gobber Congress' in the 90's.. thanks to Gerrymandering , there is little chance the National Popular vote totals will have much meaning..

FBaggins

(26,773 posts)
4. 45-43 doesn't win back the House.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 01:51 PM
Oct 2012

Long odds against winning back the House at this point. I think the median forecase is picking up 5-10 seats.

But the Senate is looking MUCH better than just a few months ago.

Cosmocat

(14,575 posts)
11. This is my take
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:11 PM
Oct 2012

Next to getting our President a second term, hopefully with a solid enough margin to make it ring more more hollow when the republicans try to say it did not count, the fact that the Ds look to actually maybe pickup a senate seat or two after everyone had just handed the senate to the the Rs is pretty darn sweet.

The House was always a tough run this go around - 25 seat margin is not massive, but the energy for this election is all at the presidential and senatorial level, which means the norm will be just keeping the current congressman/women.

I think the 5 to 10 might be a bit short selling the way the media does, like just giving the Rs the senate for the last two years. IF BO can uptick a bit, I think it can be in the low teens ...

FBaggins

(26,773 posts)
14. That would be great
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:15 PM
Oct 2012

And it's certainly within reach if the president wins by a few percent...

... but it means winning essentially every tossup House race.

Cosmocat

(14,575 posts)
17. Even cutting into their margin
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 03:36 PM
Oct 2012

IF we can get a solid win for the President and get a few seats in the senate, and cut the margin down in the House, maybe that takes A LITTLE steam out of those jerkoffs sails ...

brooklynite

(94,757 posts)
5. Don't get too worked up...
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 01:52 PM
Oct 2012

...and I say this as someone who's given DCCC $6,000. This is a "generic" candidate preference poll. Focus on head to head match-ups, and I'm still not seeing net + 25.

elleng

(131,176 posts)
20. HEY she!!!
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 04:12 PM
Oct 2012

For those who would like to contribute to the campaign directly, we have had a special link set up just for DU. 100% of your contribution goes to Wayne Powell’s campaign and using this link gives DU the credit. If you send a check via snail mail, just add DU to the memo.

http://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=nnH5UqlGXVdFqwQYSNfMTv5XA6vMNUWV


More than DCCC has done!!!

onenote

(42,778 posts)
13. Misleading description of the poll question.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:14 PM
Oct 2012

The poll asked whether the respondents wanted to see the Democrats control both Houses or Republicans. (The exact question: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections -- (ROTATE a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?&quot The answer to that poll in no way supports the statement that the poll shows Democrats leading "the race for Congress." Its really a very pointless question, imo. And for what its worth, the results of the mid-October poll on this question are actually worse for Democrats than the results for this question in August and September.

To illustrate how silly it is to draw conclusions about which party will control the House based on this poll, consider that the poll surveyed 1000 voters. There are 435 Congressional districts and there is no indication that any effort was made to ensure that each congressional district was represented in the poll. Even if such an effort had been made, it would mean 2, or at most 3, voters per distrct were polled. You don't have to be a statistician to figure out that a poll of two people isn't going to give you a reliable result in determining the outcome of a particular House race.

 

Spitfire of ATJ

(32,723 posts)
15. The ones that really get me is where they poll half rural and half urban...
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:33 PM
Oct 2012

Ignoring the fact that the guy fixing his white tie to go to the opera is voting for the same guy as someone who has a silo in his yard.

BainsBane

(53,074 posts)
16. Exactly. The number of House seats that would need to change are significant
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:56 PM
Oct 2012

and highly unlikely given the tight polling at the national level. This would have to be wave election for the Dems to control the House, and there is no sign of that. We should retain the Senate though.

 

Spitfire of ATJ

(32,723 posts)
30. The Republicans pushed anti-abortion laws the whole time....
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 06:47 PM
Oct 2012

Here's what happened when they tried that before:



Next election:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/

Keep in mind when Republican ran on "jobs, job, jobs" after the crash the public panicked and was stupid enough to believe Republicans would deliver on their campaign promise. This resulted in a shift of 63 seats which decimated the Blue Dog DINOs to the point where the Clinton Era DLC closed up shop. The Democrats became Obama's property at that point. They need only 25 seats to take back the House.

elleng

(131,176 posts)
18. WOULD HAVE sent dccc $ if they HAD helped Wayne Powell,
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 04:05 PM
Oct 2012

and STILL would, if they WILL help Wayne Powell. On THIS subject, I'm a one-issue spender.

-LOKI -BAD FOR YA

(308 posts)
34. you can vote more than once i will tell you the secret
Tue Oct 23, 2012, 02:06 PM
Oct 2012

you can vote with your wallet ,i vote every mitt open his mouth i give down ballot ex:camona,bob kerry,tammy duckworth we have so many great people running .

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