2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew email: NBC News/WSJ Poll shows Democrats winning both houses of Congress 45% to 43%
Friends -- we just got a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showing Democrats leading the race for Congress, 45% to 43%.That means were in range of replacing Boehner and Cantors Tea Party majority with a Democratic House for President Obama!
Now we have to close the spending gap. Right now, Republican Super PACs are launching a $40 million dollar ad campaign against our candidates in the tightest races across the country. Weve come too far to let these dishonest ads cost us the election.
We have 9 hours left until our next ad buy deadline: Donate $3 or more to help us fight back against Republican attacks.
We're getting calls from campaigns that are being outspent by nearly 2-to-1 in races we have to win. When the polls close on November 6th, we dont want to have that sinking feeling that we didnt do everything we could to close the spending gap when it mattered.
Please chip in what you can to help us fight back:
http://dccc.org/Close-The-Gap
Thanks,
Democrats 2012
longship
(40,416 posts)R&
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)I don't care if you aren't sure who someone is, if they have (D) vote for them. I want to send a clear message to the Billionaire's Club that America is not for sale.
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)But we'll hold the senate.
Hyper_Eye
(675 posts)The generic ballot means almost nothing right now. 95% of House seats are what would be called "safe seats" created through gerrymandering. Both sides are guilty of doing this. District maps need to be drawn by bipartisan panels. Then people might get real representation.
catbyte
(34,472 posts)good chance at being flipped. Actually, my district has been redrawn to slightly favor Democrats and the GOP incumbent is running behind the Democratic challenger. I think the GOP may have overplayed its hand last election.
cyclezealot
(4,802 posts)We'd have had far fewer Gobber Congress' in the 90's.. thanks to Gerrymandering , there is little chance the National Popular vote totals will have much meaning..
FBaggins
(26,773 posts)Long odds against winning back the House at this point. I think the median forecase is picking up 5-10 seats.
But the Senate is looking MUCH better than just a few months ago.
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)Next to getting our President a second term, hopefully with a solid enough margin to make it ring more more hollow when the republicans try to say it did not count, the fact that the Ds look to actually maybe pickup a senate seat or two after everyone had just handed the senate to the the Rs is pretty darn sweet.
The House was always a tough run this go around - 25 seat margin is not massive, but the energy for this election is all at the presidential and senatorial level, which means the norm will be just keeping the current congressman/women.
I think the 5 to 10 might be a bit short selling the way the media does, like just giving the Rs the senate for the last two years. IF BO can uptick a bit, I think it can be in the low teens ...
FBaggins
(26,773 posts)And it's certainly within reach if the president wins by a few percent...
... but it means winning essentially every tossup House race.
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)IF we can get a solid win for the President and get a few seats in the senate, and cut the margin down in the House, maybe that takes A LITTLE steam out of those jerkoffs sails ...
brooklynite
(94,757 posts)...and I say this as someone who's given DCCC $6,000. This is a "generic" candidate preference poll. Focus on head to head match-ups, and I'm still not seeing net + 25.
Hutzpa
(11,461 posts)an insider polling news.
FORWARD!
budkin
(6,721 posts)But that would be epic if it happened.
liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)And then we can get something done to put America back to work.
sheshe2
(83,940 posts)Let's at least leave Eric Cantor back in Virginia.
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elleng
(131,176 posts)For those who would like to contribute to the campaign directly, we have had a special link set up just for DU. 100% of your contribution goes to Wayne Powells campaign and using this link gives DU the credit. If you send a check via snail mail, just add DU to the memo.
http://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=nnH5UqlGXVdFqwQYSNfMTv5XA6vMNUWV
More than DCCC has done!!!
Thanks for the link...will do.
elleng
(131,176 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)FSogol
(45,532 posts)ailsagirl
(22,899 posts)That would be heaven.
onenote
(42,778 posts)The poll asked whether the respondents wanted to see the Democrats control both Houses or Republicans. (The exact question: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections -- (ROTATE a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?" The answer to that poll in no way supports the statement that the poll shows Democrats leading "the race for Congress." Its really a very pointless question, imo. And for what its worth, the results of the mid-October poll on this question are actually worse for Democrats than the results for this question in August and September.
To illustrate how silly it is to draw conclusions about which party will control the House based on this poll, consider that the poll surveyed 1000 voters. There are 435 Congressional districts and there is no indication that any effort was made to ensure that each congressional district was represented in the poll. Even if such an effort had been made, it would mean 2, or at most 3, voters per distrct were polled. You don't have to be a statistician to figure out that a poll of two people isn't going to give you a reliable result in determining the outcome of a particular House race.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Ignoring the fact that the guy fixing his white tie to go to the opera is voting for the same guy as someone who has a silo in his yard.
BainsBane
(53,074 posts)and highly unlikely given the tight polling at the national level. This would have to be wave election for the Dems to control the House, and there is no sign of that. We should retain the Senate though.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Here's what happened when they tried that before:
Next election:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/
Keep in mind when Republican ran on "jobs, job, jobs" after the crash the public panicked and was stupid enough to believe Republicans would deliver on their campaign promise. This resulted in a shift of 63 seats which decimated the Blue Dog DINOs to the point where the Clinton Era DLC closed up shop. The Democrats became Obama's property at that point. They need only 25 seats to take back the House.
progressoid
(49,999 posts)elleng
(131,176 posts)and STILL would, if they WILL help Wayne Powell. On THIS subject, I'm a one-issue spender.
Smilo
(1,944 posts)Javaman
(62,534 posts)courseofhistory
(801 posts)notadmblnd
(23,720 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)-LOKI -BAD FOR YA
(308 posts)you can vote with your wallet ,i vote every mitt open his mouth i give down ballot ex:camona,bob kerry,tammy duckworth we have so many great people running .