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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 11:59 AM Apr 2016

New poll--Clinton +22 in Pennsylvania (55-33)

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-democratic-primary-poll--4-2-3

Pollster has done two earlier polls--all have shown Clinton in the 53-57% range, so MOE.

Sanders showing modest improvement--from 27% to 33%.

The 538 path to victory for Sanders shows that he needs to win Pennsylvania by 7 points to stay on track for the nomination (pending New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).

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New poll--Clinton +22 in Pennsylvania (55-33) (Original Post) geek tragedy Apr 2016 OP
Post removed Post removed Apr 2016 #1
He's gonna have a tough time trying to barnstorm New York while competing in Pennsylvania. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #2
PA's primary is a week after NY's. MineralMan Apr 2016 #3
Same time frame he had for Ohio and Florida. nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #5
I've seen a lot of this polling before and well it was wrong. DemocracyDirect Apr 2016 #4
Michigan poll was the only one where Bernie got severely undercounted, geek tragedy Apr 2016 #7
I hope you are right for your sake. DemocracyDirect Apr 2016 #9
I don't trust polls for caucus states, there's no way to develop an accurate turnout model geek tragedy Apr 2016 #11
Okay good luck to you. DemocracyDirect Apr 2016 #12
you too geek tragedy Apr 2016 #13
You do know that it always starts out like this several weeks out Tom Rinaldo Apr 2016 #6
The two races that really closed were IL and MI. MI had bad turnout models because 2008 geek tragedy Apr 2016 #10
k&r bigtree Apr 2016 #8
Not good news for Sanders hollowdweller Apr 2016 #14
closed primary, Clinton did very well here in a tough fight against Obama. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #15

Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
2. He's gonna have a tough time trying to barnstorm New York while competing in Pennsylvania.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:01 PM
Apr 2016

Maybe he can dispatch Cornel West and Tim Robbins to help out.

MineralMan

(146,325 posts)
3. PA's primary is a week after NY's.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:04 PM
Apr 2016

There will be time to campaign in PA, although both candidates will campaign there before the NY election, too.

 

DemocracyDirect

(708 posts)
4. I've seen a lot of this polling before and well it was wrong.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:05 PM
Apr 2016

The amazing polls I saw before showed Hillary with double digit leads in so many states.

And yet Bernie won with yuge margins in those same states.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
7. Michigan poll was the only one where Bernie got severely undercounted,
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:08 PM
Apr 2016

and the polling there was crap due to bad turnout models.

Primary polling hasn't shown a bias towards either candidate.

Pennsylvania is not a close race right now.

 

DemocracyDirect

(708 posts)
9. I hope you are right for your sake.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:11 PM
Apr 2016

My memory was that polls were being shoved down our throats showing Hillary with leads in Idaho, Utah, Hawaii, Alaska etc. in weeks past.

I'll dig them up if I have some time later.

You do realize that sometimes polls are about creating reality and not actually showing reality.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
11. I don't trust polls for caucus states, there's no way to develop an accurate turnout model
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:13 PM
Apr 2016

unless it's a place where there's been a lot of polling done--Iowa for example.

The one big case was Michigan. But, they were using a really bad turnout model there--basing it off the very low turnout 2008 race.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
6. You do know that it always starts out like this several weeks out
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:08 PM
Apr 2016

Sure it may end up this way too but I wouldn't bet on it. I expect a competitive race.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
10. The two races that really closed were IL and MI. MI had bad turnout models because 2008
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:12 PM
Apr 2016

was such a fustercluck.

IL started closing magically after the MI polls were shown to be horrible. A cynical person might infer that there was poll herding going on and that they tweaked their turnout models after Michigan.

Closed primary in Pennsylvania, so there's less of an X factor for dithering independents trying to decide between voting Sanders or against Trump.

 

hollowdweller

(4,229 posts)
14. Not good news for Sanders
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:18 PM
Apr 2016

I would have thought with so many in PA fucked by free trade and so many gun owners Sanders would be way ahead.
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
15. closed primary, Clinton did very well here in a tough fight against Obama.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 12:21 PM
Apr 2016

Obama had weeks to register new voters, didn't work.

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