2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew poll--Clinton +22 in Pennsylvania (55-33)
http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-democratic-primary-poll--4-2-3Pollster has done two earlier polls--all have shown Clinton in the 53-57% range, so MOE.
Sanders showing modest improvement--from 27% to 33%.
The 538 path to victory for Sanders shows that he needs to win Pennsylvania by 7 points to stay on track for the nomination (pending New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
Response to geek tragedy (Original post)
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geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Maybe he can dispatch Cornel West and Tim Robbins to help out.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)There will be time to campaign in PA, although both candidates will campaign there before the NY election, too.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)The amazing polls I saw before showed Hillary with double digit leads in so many states.
And yet Bernie won with yuge margins in those same states.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)and the polling there was crap due to bad turnout models.
Primary polling hasn't shown a bias towards either candidate.
Pennsylvania is not a close race right now.
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)My memory was that polls were being shoved down our throats showing Hillary with leads in Idaho, Utah, Hawaii, Alaska etc. in weeks past.
I'll dig them up if I have some time later.
You do realize that sometimes polls are about creating reality and not actually showing reality.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)unless it's a place where there's been a lot of polling done--Iowa for example.
The one big case was Michigan. But, they were using a really bad turnout model there--basing it off the very low turnout 2008 race.
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)Sure it may end up this way too but I wouldn't bet on it. I expect a competitive race.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)was such a fustercluck.
IL started closing magically after the MI polls were shown to be horrible. A cynical person might infer that there was poll herding going on and that they tweaked their turnout models after Michigan.
Closed primary in Pennsylvania, so there's less of an X factor for dithering independents trying to decide between voting Sanders or against Trump.
bigtree
(86,005 posts)hollowdweller
(4,229 posts)I would have thought with so many in PA fucked by free trade and so many gun owners Sanders would be way ahead.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Obama had weeks to register new voters, didn't work.