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Watch out, New York! The Sanders late surge trend strikes again!
Sanders always improves his numbers in the week before the election, usually by a lot. I call it the "Sanders late surge trend." Sure enough, it happened again tonight in Wisconsin. It looks like he's going to win by about 13 points. The Real Clear Politics final poll average gave him a 2.5 point lead, so he beat that by 10 points.
This happens in state after state after state (outside the South, and the South is done voting). Look at the list of past state results I have here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511617438
Even the Clinton campagn can't deny it! This was on MSNBC a couple of days ago:
John Heilemann, managing editor, Bloomberg Politics.
I will say, and this is something the Clinton campaign will admit privately, is that if Bernie Sanders gets to spend time in a state, on the ground, for sustained periods of time, on the air with advertising, on the ground with rallies, he is consistently proving that he is moving votes. And that she has benefitted to a large extent from these multi-state primaries where he doesn't have enough time to go there and spend time there. Here in Wisconsin, he's had time, he's moving votes. And her worry is that, with two weeks between Wisconsin and New York, the same thing will happen there. And if he were to win in New York, the symbolic, even by one vote, the symbolic blow to her campaign would be huge.
What that means is that in order for Clinton to win a state, she needs to be way up in the polls a couple of weeks in advance, and sometimes even that isn't enough. For instance, in Illinois, she was up by 40 POINTS in the polls a week before the primary, and she ended up only losing by one point! Or Michigan, where Sanders beat the final poll average by 22 points!
The two latest New York polls have Sanders down 12 points and 10 points, with two weeks to go. If the trend of virtually every state outside the South holds true, he will narrow that gap, and it's just a question of by how much. I can't say for sure he'll win, because a lot can happen in two weeks, but at a minimum I think it's going to be close.
(And yeah, New York is a closed primary - advantage Clinton. But it's also a rare state with no early voting - advantage Sanders, due to the mentioned Sanders late surge trend.)
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