2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFact Checker- Is Hillary Clinton really ahead of Bernie Sanders by 2.5 million votes?
Hillary Clinton, in an interview on ABCs The View, April 5, 2016
The Pinocchio Test
Despite the suspicions of the Sanders supporter, the fact that caucus results are not included in the popular vote tally does not appear to make much of a difference in the final result. Despite overwhelming victories in caucus states such as Washington and Maine, Sanders gains only about 130,000 votes. That means Clinton is ahead by 2.4 million votes, rather than 2.5 million votes. Given rounding and the fact that caucus numbers are only estimates the difference is slight enough that Clintons claim, made before the Wisconsin vote, earns a rare Geppetto Checkmark.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/06/is-hillary-clinton-really-ahead-of-bernie-sanders-by-2-5-million-votes/
DSB's Synopsis - The factchecker painstakingly estimated the number of caucus voters, allocated the votes proportionally, and added them to the popular vote.
Red Oak
(697 posts)Some caucuses don't even report votes.
Your meme is a lie.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Some caucuses don't even report votes.
Your meme is a lie.
The factchecker painstakingly estimated the number of caucus voters, allocated the votes proportionally, and added them to the popular vote.
In light of that fact I call on you to peer into your conscience, call on your better angels, and apologize to the factchecker and me for the aspersions you have cast on his and my character.
Thank you in advance.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)delegates. And then, there's more obfuscation with districts turning into congressional districts, and then... So confusing. But to keep harping about a popular vote that is not real only adds to Clinton's un-trustworthy count.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Such analyses are not uncommon and for you to assign some ulterior motive to the person or persons performing them betrays impurity of motives on your behalf that you so self righteously assign to others.
Since "truthiness" is a hill I would die on the VT senator decreased the Secretary's lead by approximately 150,00 votes last night. But by any reckoning she is leading him by well over 2,000,000 votes.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)I am simply seeking a truthier answer. I have no doubt she is leading in popular vote, what, with 40 some % of states reporting so far. My issue is simply with the truth.
Hillary can, and should claim to hold the popular vote to date. She should just be careful in using spurious numbers. It could come back to bite her. She seems all too prone to that kind of attack. Why, do you suppose, is that? It only leads to people concluding that she lives a bubble that really doesn't do anything but pay lip service to their needs and desires.
I have on many occasions applauded Clinton, especially on her international work with women's rights. She used that power well. I just don't understand why someone isn't telling her that some untruthiness may really really hurt her.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)When anybody discusses HRC's pop vote lead the usual demurral is her pop vote lead excluded caucuses. The author performed a painstaking analysis which includes making reasonable estimations of caucus voters and allocating them proportionally. Such analyses are performed all the time. His conclusion is that including caucus votes doesn't fundamentally change the numbers.
Caveat, those numbers exclude WI
MADem
(135,425 posts)The Pinocchio Test
The Sanders campaign is exaggerating the contributions that Clinton has received from the oil and gas industry. In the context of her overall campaign, the contributions are hardly significant. Its especially misleading to count all of the funds raised by lobbyists with multiple clients as money given by the fossil-fuel industry.
Three Pinocchios
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)When you ignore this...
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/hillary-clinton-fracking-shale-state-department-chevron
https://theintercept.com/2016/03/09/hillary-clinton-wants-to-regulate-fracking-but-still-accepts-a-lot-of-fracking-money/
but you go ahead and try to continue to the push that HRC isn't in the pocket of fossil fuel special interests
with NY in the cross hairs... HRC will have a tough time...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/nyregion/cuomo-to-ban-fracking-in-new-york-state-citing-health-risks.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/us/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-climate-change.html?_r=0
You hammer HRC on this and she's toast
MADem
(135,425 posts)You gotta go back two years with MJ? NYT?
Get real!
Loudestlib
(980 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Thanx for kicking my thread, though.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)I'm glad you agree that it doesn't matter No rec. n/t
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)"n/t"
P.S. Thanx for kicking my thread, though.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)This way you don't have to keep being disingenuous and I don't have to entertain this as some serious matter. Independents make up the largest voting block in the US. A lot of states have closed primaries. That means that only democrats can vote for the nominee. Just like in 2008 Hillary is more popular with democrats. That means that she gets more democratic votes. If Obama had only relied on democrats to get elected we would have had a president Romney.
If you want to run around saying that Hillary is more popular with democrats, that fine, that's true but Sanders is much more popular with independents just like Obama. Trying to spin the popular vote in a primary with closed primary votes into some kind of affirmation or likability is disingenuous at best.
In national polls they are about even but Hillary's overall trend is down and Sanders overall trend is up.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)There is nothing inherently disingenuous about my claim no matter how much you want it to be.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)Not for the primary and not for the general election.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)From the usual suspect Hillary mouthpieces I'm starting to doubt it.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)The liberals are up to bat now.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)RCP's tally: Clinton +2,405,170
WaPo's own flawed caucus adjustment: -132,646
Wisconsin adjustment: -134,000
That puts Clinton ahead by just 2,138,524 votes.
Sanders just keeps on diminishing down that slim margin, and Clinton has no more Deep South states left on the primary calendar.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)That puts Clinton ahead by 2,138,524 votes, out of less than 18,000,000 total votes cast. That's a lot...
Let this sink in...The Vermont independent will never catch Hillary Clinton in popular votes and pledged delegates, all the obscurantism in the world, notwithstanding.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)She is the worst candidate ever.
Clinton has every advantage in name recognition, national primary campaign experience, establishment Democratic party support, and corporate media propaganda as well as the almost total support of the entire superwealthy, superpowerful elite class,
Has a single major news story highlighted WHY or HOW the Sanders' campaign has managed to successfully challenge the Clinton campaign despite all of Clinton's profound advantages? Yes, the corporate media reports on the horse race because they have to, but have you seen a single in depth report on WHY or HOW the Sanders' campaign has managed to change a recent 10% point deficit in Wisconsin into a 10% point advantage with the every single member of the corporate media united in declaring the nomination already decided for Clinton? Wouldn't this count as interesting national news were the media themselves not 100% rigged in Clinton's favor?
Look at the Republican vs. Democratic candidate polls in battleground state after battleground state. Does Clinton fare better than Sanders against any putative Republican candidate in any putative battleground state in any recent poll? I have yet to see one. I know you will say that none of these polls matter because Sanders has not been "vetted" by the RW hate machine, but what do you think David Brock is doing right now other than digging around for any mud he can throw at Sanders? The fact of the matter is that Sanders is cleaner than any other Presidential candidate in modern history, and Hillary is dirtier than melting NYC slush.
In addition, what Sanders has already done to date in terms of fund raising AND awareness raising is completely unprecedented in US Presidential election history. But where is the media coverage? And since when does the overwhelming preference of independent voters not matter in a US Presidential election? Only in the bizarro world of our 24/7 every outlet Hillashill corporate media.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)He will not catch her in either pledged delegates or popular vote, the latter by any reasonable reckoning.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Due to the mix of states with primaries and caucuses, the popular vote isnt represented because they would need to all be caucuses or primaries.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)Delegates do just like in 2008 when the person with more votes didn't get the nomination. It's like popular votes in the general. The electoral college destroys our voice.