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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:01 AM Apr 2016

Fact Checker- Is Hillary Clinton really ahead of Bernie Sanders by 2.5 million votes?






“He’s won some, we’ve won some, but I have 2.5 million more votes than he does.”

— Hillary Clinton, in an interview on ABC’s “The View,” April 5, 2016


The Pinocchio Test

Despite the suspicions of the Sanders supporter, the fact that caucus results are not included in the popular vote tally does not appear to make much of a difference in the final result. Despite overwhelming victories in caucus states such as Washington and Maine, Sanders gains only about 130,000 votes. That means Clinton is ahead by 2.4 million votes, rather than 2.5 million votes. Given rounding — and the fact that caucus numbers are only estimates — the difference is slight enough that Clinton’s claim, made before the Wisconsin vote, earns a rare Geppetto Checkmark.





https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/06/is-hillary-clinton-really-ahead-of-bernie-sanders-by-2-5-million-votes/



DSB's Synopsis - The factchecker painstakingly estimated the number of caucus voters, allocated the votes proportionally, and added them to the popular vote.



27 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Fact Checker- Is Hillary Clinton really ahead of Bernie Sanders by 2.5 million votes? (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 OP
Not when you make allowance for caucus vs primary Red Oak Apr 2016 #1
My response. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #3
I'm sure he did his best but it doesn't account for districts voter turnout - just allocated delegat floppyboo Apr 2016 #11
Such analyses are not uncommon DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #13
You read too much into my motives floppyboo Apr 2016 #19
I regret reading too much into your motives... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #26
Beats the Three Pinocchios that a certain candidate got the other day~~~~~!!!!! MADem Apr 2016 #2
yeah, sure... HumanityExperiment Apr 2016 #4
LOL@The Intercept! GG's gig! MADem Apr 2016 #12
She beat Obama in the popular vote too and still lost. n/t Loudestlib Apr 2016 #5
Because President Obama had more pledged delegates. n/t DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #6
Obama had more pledged delegates at the convention. Loudestlib Apr 2016 #8
He had more pledged delegates at the end of the primary season. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #9
Let's put this talking point to bed. Loudestlib Apr 2016 #15
This is a Democratic primary and she has a healthy lead. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #18
She has a healthy lead among democrats and it doesn't matter. Loudestlib Apr 2016 #20
since I keep hearing it ibegurpard Apr 2016 #7
That's the 5th inning score when the other team's best player was on the bench kristopher Apr 2016 #14
Enormous K & R. Thanks for posting. Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #10
Except by their own estimate, it's now just mhatrw Apr 2016 #16
That's a lot. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #21
He will catch her in both. mhatrw Apr 2016 #22
Bookmark this post. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #23
Bookmarked. frylock Apr 2016 #24
Feelthemath! Iliyah Apr 2016 #17
Not comparable CobaltBlue Apr 2016 #25
Votes don't matter! scscholar Apr 2016 #27

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
3. My response.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:08 AM
Apr 2016
Not when you make allowance for caucus vs primary

Some caucuses don't even report votes.

Your meme is a lie.


The factchecker painstakingly estimated the number of caucus voters, allocated the votes proportionally, and added them to the popular vote.

In light of that fact I call on you to peer into your conscience, call on your better angels, and apologize to the factchecker and me for the aspersions you have cast on his and my character.

Thank you in advance.

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
11. I'm sure he did his best but it doesn't account for districts voter turnout - just allocated delegat
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:38 AM
Apr 2016

delegates. And then, there's more obfuscation with districts turning into congressional districts, and then... So confusing. But to keep harping about a popular vote that is not real only adds to Clinton's un-trustworthy count.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
13. Such analyses are not uncommon
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:42 AM
Apr 2016

Such analyses are not uncommon and for you to assign some ulterior motive to the person or persons performing them betrays impurity of motives on your behalf that you so self righteously assign to others.


Since "truthiness" is a hill I would die on the VT senator decreased the Secretary's lead by approximately 150,00 votes last night. But by any reckoning she is leading him by well over 2,000,000 votes.



floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
19. You read too much into my motives
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:02 AM
Apr 2016

I am simply seeking a truthier answer. I have no doubt she is leading in popular vote, what, with 40 some % of states reporting so far. My issue is simply with the truth.

Hillary can, and should claim to hold the popular vote to date. She should just be careful in using spurious numbers. It could come back to bite her. She seems all too prone to that kind of attack. Why, do you suppose, is that? It only leads to people concluding that she lives a bubble that really doesn't do anything but pay lip service to their needs and desires.

I have on many occasions applauded Clinton, especially on her international work with women's rights. She used that power well. I just don't understand why someone isn't telling her that some untruthiness may really really hurt her.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
26. I regret reading too much into your motives...
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 12:47 PM
Apr 2016

When anybody discusses HRC's pop vote lead the usual demurral is her pop vote lead excluded caucuses. The author performed a painstaking analysis which includes making reasonable estimations of caucus voters and allocating them proportionally. Such analyses are performed all the time. His conclusion is that including caucus votes doesn't fundamentally change the numbers.

Caveat, those numbers exclude WI

MADem

(135,425 posts)
2. Beats the Three Pinocchios that a certain candidate got the other day~~~~~!!!!!
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:08 AM
Apr 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/02/fact-checking-the-clinton-sanders-spat-over-big-oil-contributions/


The Pinocchio Test

The Sanders campaign is exaggerating the contributions that Clinton has received from the oil and gas industry. In the context of her overall campaign, the contributions are hardly significant. It’s especially misleading to count all of the funds raised by lobbyists with multiple clients as money “given” by the fossil-fuel industry.

Three Pinocchios

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
9. He had more pledged delegates at the end of the primary season.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:29 AM
Apr 2016

"n/t"




P.S. Thanx for kicking my thread, though.


Loudestlib

(980 posts)
15. Let's put this talking point to bed.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:52 AM
Apr 2016

This way you don't have to keep being disingenuous and I don't have to entertain this as some serious matter. Independents make up the largest voting block in the US. A lot of states have closed primaries. That means that only democrats can vote for the nominee. Just like in 2008 Hillary is more popular with democrats. That means that she gets more democratic votes. If Obama had only relied on democrats to get elected we would have had a president Romney.

If you want to run around saying that Hillary is more popular with democrats, that fine, that's true but Sanders is much more popular with independents just like Obama. Trying to spin the popular vote in a primary with closed primary votes into some kind of affirmation or likability is disingenuous at best.

In national polls they are about even but Hillary's overall trend is down and Sanders overall trend is up.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
18. This is a Democratic primary and she has a healthy lead.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:00 AM
Apr 2016

There is nothing inherently disingenuous about my claim no matter how much you want it to be.

Loudestlib

(980 posts)
20. She has a healthy lead among democrats and it doesn't matter.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:06 AM
Apr 2016

Not for the primary and not for the general election.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
14. That's the 5th inning score when the other team's best player was on the bench
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:42 AM
Apr 2016

The liberals are up to bat now.

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
16. Except by their own estimate, it's now just
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 10:53 AM
Apr 2016

RCP's tally: Clinton +2,405,170
WaPo's own flawed caucus adjustment: -132,646
Wisconsin adjustment: -134,000

That puts Clinton ahead by just 2,138,524 votes.

Sanders just keeps on diminishing down that slim margin, and Clinton has no more Deep South states left on the primary calendar.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
21. That's a lot.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:06 AM
Apr 2016

That puts Clinton ahead by 2,138,524 votes, out of less than 18,000,000 total votes cast. That's a lot...

Let this sink in...The Vermont independent will never catch Hillary Clinton in popular votes and pledged delegates, all the obscurantism in the world, notwithstanding.

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
22. He will catch her in both.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:10 AM
Apr 2016

She is the worst candidate ever.

Clinton has every advantage in name recognition, national primary campaign experience, establishment Democratic party support, and corporate media propaganda as well as the almost total support of the entire superwealthy, superpowerful elite class,

Has a single major news story highlighted WHY or HOW the Sanders' campaign has managed to successfully challenge the Clinton campaign despite all of Clinton's profound advantages? Yes, the corporate media reports on the horse race because they have to, but have you seen a single in depth report on WHY or HOW the Sanders' campaign has managed to change a recent 10% point deficit in Wisconsin into a 10% point advantage with the every single member of the corporate media united in declaring the nomination already decided for Clinton? Wouldn't this count as interesting national news were the media themselves not 100% rigged in Clinton's favor?

Look at the Republican vs. Democratic candidate polls in battleground state after battleground state. Does Clinton fare better than Sanders against any putative Republican candidate in any putative battleground state in any recent poll? I have yet to see one. I know you will say that none of these polls matter because Sanders has not been "vetted" by the RW hate machine, but what do you think David Brock is doing right now other than digging around for any mud he can throw at Sanders? The fact of the matter is that Sanders is cleaner than any other Presidential candidate in modern history, and Hillary is dirtier than melting NYC slush.

In addition, what Sanders has already done to date in terms of fund raising AND awareness raising is completely unprecedented in US Presidential election history. But where is the media coverage? And since when does the overwhelming preference of independent voters not matter in a US Presidential election? Only in the bizarro world of our 24/7 every outlet Hillashill corporate media.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
23. Bookmark this post.
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 11:13 AM
Apr 2016

He will not catch her in either pledged delegates or popular vote, the latter by any reasonable reckoning.

 

CobaltBlue

(1,122 posts)
25. Not comparable
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 12:44 PM
Apr 2016

Due to the mix of states with primaries and caucuses, the popular vote isn’t represented because they would need to all be caucuses or primaries.

 

scscholar

(2,902 posts)
27. Votes don't matter!
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 12:48 PM
Apr 2016

Delegates do just like in 2008 when the person with more votes didn't get the nomination. It's like popular votes in the general. The electoral college destroys our voice.

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