2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton Machine on the Ropes as Sanders Takes Momentum to NY
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/04/06/clinton-machine-ropes-sanders-takes-momentum-nyNew York primary has become 'the war to settle the score' after Sanders sweeps seven out of eight recent match-ups
Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton is on her heels having now lost seven of the past eight presidential nominating contests, thrusting the upcoming primary in New York front and center.
"This is the war to settle the score," declared Van Jones, CNN correspondent and former green jobs adviser to President Barack Obama, on Democracy Now! Wednesday. "New York City is the capital of the world and two titanic forces in the Democratic Party are clashing on the world stage in New York City."
A Brooklyn native, Sen. Bernie Sanders is no stranger to New York and after securing yet another double-digit win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, he has set his sights on a real showdown in the Empire State. Jones cautioned against "assuming" a Clinton win there, which he pointed out is her "third declared home state" after Arkansas and Illinois.
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"Clinton now faces the unavoidable fact that she must win New York by a convincing margin or face a barrage of questions about whether her campaign is faltering," Politico's Gabriel Debenedetti reported Wednesday.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Sanders then becomes the favorite to win in Pennsylvania and California.
Clinton would go into the convention with a long losing streak is the core Blue states. She's already a wounded duck. She'd then be a dead duck.
Do the super delegates throw in with a candidate who cannot even win primaries in Blue states?
Avalux
(35,015 posts)What everyone said was impossible for Bernie has happened more than once during this campaign. I fully expect him to win NY.
bbrady42
(175 posts)She could still run out the clock. She could lose every remaining state and if the margins are close enough she'll still have more delegates than he does. But she'd be a seriously weakened candidate at that point.
Bernie, however, *really* needs NY. If he doesn't win there the whole "momentum" conversation stops and his path to a delegate lead becomes almost impossible.
All that being said, I really don't think she'll lose NY. I don't think it'll be a double digit win, but I think she'll win.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)A primary loss in the state where she was once the Senator shows a campaign and candidate that isn't viable. Running out the clock while your opponent racks up wins isn't going to impress anyone.
So far, NY is looking like all the states Sanders has recently won. Hillary, up to a week before the election holds a lead in the polls, sometimes in double digits, and by election day she is behind. I expect Sanders to close fast in NY as well.
In the end, it depends on voter turnout. The more people that vote, the better Bernie's chances.
Is a a win for Clinton, demographics favor her greatly, she is widely popular in NY and of course a closed primary no indie spoilers.
spinbaby
(15,090 posts)Hillary's supporters are always crowing about closed primaries. In other words, they're counting on fewer people voting to win. Now where have we heard of that strategy before?
bbrady42
(175 posts)But that's just "how the rules have been set up." Is that telling too?
bigtree
(86,005 posts)...but this is delusional.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)up the margin?
Because if we're talking about Hillary needing to run up the score, then we're not in the same universe where he's looking at a win.