2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
Instant-reaction polls following Monday nights debate in Boca Raton, Fla., judged President Obama to be the winner.
A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 53 percent giving it to Mr. Obama, 23 percent to Mitt Romney and 24 percent declaring it a tie.
Mr. Obamas margin of victory in the poll was slightly wider than Mr. Romneys following the first presidential debate in Denver, which a similar CBS News poll gave to Mr. Romney at 46 percent to 22 percent.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/obama-unlikely-to-get-big-debate-bounce-but-a-small-one-could-matter/
I guess we got to wait a few days to see if we get a bounce.
skeewee08
(1,983 posts)swing states poll........
Cosmocat
(14,574 posts)that can have any significant impact on the race.
Short of something catastrophic with the stock market, economy or security.
It SEEMED that the President's campaign has stopped the bleeding after debate one, and had showed some halting momentum in his direction. It is good that he had a strong performance, and I agree, even a small, but tangible nudge of momentum in his direction would open up the margins JUST enough to give him a small, but clear lead as the races winds down, and the romney folks will sense it and be a bit dispirited, and they mushy undecideds are likely to break in the Presidents favor, cause late deciders tend to go where the momentum is.
VERY anxious to see polling roll out for the next week.
That will pretty much tell us where it is going into the election.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)changes in attitudes. It may take as long as a week to see the full effect, especially in the state polls. The national polls will probably show moment earlier I'd guess, but then again the national polls really don't mean much since we don't vote by popular vote.
qanda
(10,422 posts)But the Republicans all act like Mitt did what he had to do even though he flat out lost. Perception is reality......
Democat
(11,617 posts)But if Romney's up by 2 it's a blowout.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)watching the undecided meter line. Women were consistently approving of what the president said throughout the debate.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)I call that HORSE SHIT!!!!
onenote
(42,767 posts)There aren't that many undecided voters left to give a big bounce to either candidate at this point. On the other hand, the number of undecided voters that could be influenced by the debate performance was at its maximum at the time of the first debate.
TexasCPA
(527 posts)Hopefully, we get a lasting effect of debate 3. Debate 2 seemed to be a bounce that fizzled after about 3 days.