2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSurvey USA CT: Obama +13; Murphy +4 in Senate Race
In an election for United States Senator from Connecticut today, 10/22/12, Democrat Chris Murphy is at 47% to Linda McMahon's 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York City. The seat is open, and one that Republicans need to pick-up in order to take control of the U.S. Senate.
* Murphy's advantage comes entirely from CT minorities: the contest is tied among white voters.
* Murphy's advantage comes entirely from high school educated voters. The contest is tied among those with at least some college education.
* Murphy leads among voters earning less than $80,000 a year; McMahon leads among voters earning more than $80,000.
* Murphy leads in Fairfield and Hartford counties, McMahon leads in New Haven County.
* Independents break 5:4 Republican, but that is offset by Moderates, who break 5:4 Democrat.
* Murphy benefits from a 25-point gender gap: he leads by 16 points among women, which offsets McMahon's 9-point lead among men.
* Murphy leads among the youngest and oldest voters. McMahon leads among middle-aged voters.
* Both candidates are disliked. Murphy has a Minus 9 Net Favorability. McMahon has a Minus 10 Net Favorability.
In an election for President of the United States today, Connecticut's 7 electoral votes remain safely blue: Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 53% to 40%. Obama leads in every age group and has a 25-point advantage among CT women. 18% of CT's few Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic in the contest for President.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of CT adults 10/19/12 through 10/21/12. Of the adults, 637 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 575 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fded7065-4b8e-4e70-b960-a4bedb974516
Some people don't think cell phones matter in polling? In this poll, Obama leads 70-22 among cell phone users vs. 49-44 landline.
Cosmocat
(14,574 posts)nm
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Survey USA is automated but is rated as a good pollster.
I have gotten tons of robocalls, tons of calls to support either candidate from live people (one from a really nice union guy) and taken two polls. Never been this crazy before in Connecticut (no one usually cares about us) but McMahon really wants to buy this seat and the importance of Dems keeping the Senate is huge.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I have not seen one TV ad of his.
sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)one during the beautiful destruction of the Cardinals at the hands of the Giants and another during the snoozefest of a football game.
NYC Liberal
(20,136 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)With McMahon, Murphy, and Roraback and Esty (running for Murphy's seat in the House). McMahon has more ads but Murphy has a lot now.
Actually, it is overkill. I can't watch tv at night without all the ads. I am glad Murphy is not overdoing it. It gets extremely annoying.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Maybe because she has so many that I do notice his ads.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)She thinks they may be more favorable to her considering many of them work on Wall St.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)for Murphy - but we can't find the location or more info
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)"President Bill Clinton will be come to Waterbury Sunday for a campaign rally with Chris Murphy Sunday at 3 p.m. in Library Park.
The event will be free and open to the public. Information about tickets is expected to be available at www.chrismurphy.com this week."
http://www.rep-am.com/articles/2012/10/23/news/connecticut/doc5086b5c9737fd199863464.txt
Are you from Connecticut? Waterbury is an older city. My husband works there for Yankee Gas.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)now in Texas (ugh)
My two sisters are going, just waiting for the location.
Thanks !
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)If the undecideds break for Murphy the way they did for Blumenthal, Chris wins 54-45, 3 points less than Blumenthal. It is still a sizable win.
flamingdem
(39,328 posts)abbyg8r
(66 posts)Hi, long time lurker and fired up recent transplant to CT! Murphy and Obama will be getting two votes from our household.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)After a shaky start, he has been ahead in all the recent polls, and Nate Silver projects Murphy to win with a very good chance (80% I think last time I checked).
The DSCC sent in more staff & resources last month to help Murphy when they saw McMahon was gaining.
Looks like Obama's numbers have also stabilized in Connecticut.