2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHundreds of Thousands of Sander's Backers May Demonstrate At The Democratic Party Convention In July
Clintons Crumbling, Bernies Surging and a Political Revolution Could Be in the Offing
By Dave Lindorff -
April 7, 2016
Perhaps a Clintonian scorched-earth campaign of lies, tricks and media manipulation could succeed in derailing the Sanders campaign though I doubt it. But if it did succeed, there would be no unifying possible later. The evident passion for Sanders himself among his followers is so great at this point that if Clintons establishment backers and her Super PAC funders were to tear him down and deny him the nomination there would be no forgiving and forgetting possible.
This offers an interesting set of possible scenarios going forward.
The first would be that the polls continue to move Sanders way as they have been showing a consistent pattern of doing in state after state primary and caucus. Already Clintons lead in New York, where the primary is set for April 19, has been whittled down from over 40% to single digits. In Pennsylvania, which votes on April 26, a similar large margin for Clinton is down now to just a 4% spread, and that was before last nights yuge rally in the states largest city. If Sanders were to win in New York, the state where Clinton served a term and a half as senator, and then in Pennsylvania, he would be on a march that would probably take him right through California on June 7. Even if he wound up a bit short of a majority of pledged delegates at that point, the superdelegates, mostly Democratic politicians, either in office or formerly in office and perhaps considering running again, would be hard pressed to continue supporting Clinton, who would be seen as badly damaged goods and as a bad bet for the general election.
Add to that the prospect of hundreds of thousands of Sanders backers who will almost certainly be in the streets of Philadelphiaa city of just 1 millionfor the Democratic Convention in mid-July.
Images of the disastrous 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago will surely be in anxious party leaders heads. Chicago was where police brutally attacked anti-war backers of Sen. Eugene McCarthy, whose candidacy was stolen away by the establishments candidate, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, a man who became badly damaged goods and went on to lose to Richard Nixon. Philadelphias police department today is every bit as capable of brutality and thuggishness as was Mayor Richard Daleys Chicago PD almost half a century ago, but the Sanders backers in the street in Philly will not be a bunch of widely reviled long-haired hippies, yippies and pinko anti-war activists. They are, in large part, Americas kids and young adults. Many of Philadelphias cops may even have kids who will be part of the group in the streets backing Sanders, which might make a Chicago-style police riot less likely.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)~~be sure to wear a flower in your hair~~~~~~~~
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)I was in Washington, DC in 68 and 69, too. One was some folks laying back and living a dream. The other was politically aware people protesting an unjust war. I got stoned in San Francisco and got laid a couple of times. I got arrested at the Pentagon in the other place.
Hundreds of thousands of protesters are damned hard to come by. Maybe if they can book the Rolling Stones for a free concert. That might do it. Or maybe Justin Bieber. I can't keep up with all of this, really.
I'll be watching the Democratic Convention, though, for sure, so I'll be looking for those hundreds of thousands of protesters.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)100s of thousands? ... in Philadelphia? ... in July? It'll be too hot!
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)Whoa...that's too far. Where would I stay. Is that even in this country? My 1996 Crown Vic would never make it.
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)Let me check my change jar. I don't think I have that much, really...you wanna kick in?
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)You seem to be totally unfamiliar with what happened at the Chicago convention. Bernie supporters don't want a repeat of that in Philadelphia. To suggest that Bernie's supporters are drug crazed rioters is pathetic.
To suggest otherwise is nothing more than a mean and nasty smear of Bernie Sanders and his supporters.
Are you going to continue spreading that kind of garbage on DU?
Is that what Hillary's campaign has been reduced to on public discussion boards?
I guess so.
Are you working full-time on her campaign and is this the kind of b.s. you are being encouraged to spread?
I hope not.
mythology
(9,527 posts)But beyond that, in a scenario where the pledged delegate leader is not the nominee is something the Sanders supporters were adamantly opposed to to one they are now not only arguing for, but in this case threatening to throw a temper tantrum if it doesn't happen.
If that happens fuck them. Losing an election sucks. But you don't threaten to riot if it happens.
RashaMZak
(32 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Where did that come from?
blm
(113,082 posts)I think you may have tipped to show the REAL cards you have been playing here all along.
Only RWers believe that war protestors in 1968 were 'drug-crazed rioters' as you called them.
I'm not so sure you're here to support Sanders as you'd like for us to believe. Perhaps you could explain how you came to believe the war protestors were 'drug-crazed rioters'?
frylock
(34,825 posts)Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)is promising.
Got it.
Jesus, these people simply cant be liberals.
dr60omg
(283 posts)Try to understand there is a difference between progressive and leftist from liberal. Liberal and conservative are the flip sides of the same coin (tied to one another). Progressives and leftists want the US to move from the centrist liberal stuff to a progressive form of politics which is neither tied to neoliberalism (privatization and Wall Street) or neoconservatism
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)risks a GOP government.
Unless they simply dont know enough to know better.
handmade34
(22,756 posts)Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)Look at what not voting in November if Hillary is the nominee means.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)When Obama won the primary, it was a close contest but there was a clear winner. This primary started off with the DNC fixing the debate schedule to benefit Hillary. That made the entire processes suspect. Like it or not, if Hillary is the nominee, many voters will write in Sanders, vote for the Green Party, just stay home or even vote for Dumpf.
revbones
(3,660 posts)Especially the centrist liberal fallacy you create.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)You will be proud of that, eh!
Response to Jackie Wilson Said (Reply #11)
Post removed
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)Bernie does and vote for Hillary.
You will tell Bernie to go fuck himself at that point.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)I will be returning the favor of her thirty years of fuck you's she gave America.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)Especially after he pleads with you, explains to you he needs a Democratic White House so he can accomplish what he wants to accomplish.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)He did not become my spiritual advisor, he did not become the person who tells me what to do. He is a candidate. Nope. He doesn't have the power to tell me, but can suggest it. .
Thank you ... You are correct about what you say. He does not have the power to tell me what to do. I will vote for the candidate who best represents my political goals and ideology. I will never vote for a centrist. I will write in someone and I am serious about that.
Merryland
(1,134 posts)There is this idea among the authoritarian types who back Hillary that we take orders from Bernie. Bernie can do what he wishes, vote for whom he wishes - I will not be swayed by his opinion one way or the other. I make up my own mind.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Senators in Congress. That smear does not work. Sorry
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Most voters don't trust her. She has a ton of baggage. It would be hard for the Democratic Party to find a more compromised and discredited candidate than Hillary.
Now if you really don't care about what happens in the general election you can continue to be an apologist for her or just live in a fantasy world where she'll be elected President.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)maybe stop the obnoxious inflammatory posts. Yes, you.
jillan
(39,451 posts)So help me if Hillary wins the election because of superdelegates, I will be there.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1143894.1345850645!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/gallery_1200/democratic-national-convention-1968.jpg
MUST SEE VIDEO:
I was there. Never again should such police violence and brutality be accepted. Convention delegates who supported Eugene McCarthy were not spared. In fact cops attacked them inside the hotels they stayed at!
RashaMZak
(32 posts)It'll probably be more likely federal level police cracking skulls this time, they seemed more up to the task when I was at Occupy NatGat. Mayor Kenney is many shades milder than Daley, but we do have a special level of brutality and corruption here in our local force, so maybe some will try to join or spark a fray. In 2000 they raided a warehouse and arrested a bunch of folks who were making *gasp* big puppets for the marches on the RNC.
That said, there's already a protest concert scheduled right across the street from Wells Fargo at FDR skatepark. Bernie aside, I know anti-war, economic justice, etc. marches being planned too. This goes way beyond who wins this race - people forget the delegates vote on the party platform as well, and there are many who want a change the current triangulation/"centrism".
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Shoving an unpopular candidate down the people's throat is a recipe for epic loss.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)than they want peace at the convention? There are two things they can do if they want peace. First make damned good and sure that the police are not the violent bullies that were in Chicago in 68.
Secondly, right now stop the dirty tricks and make sure this convention is honest. Are you listening 33 State Democratic Parties?
We will not have this one stolen out from under us like we did in Chicago. Remember you lost the election back then.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)It is not a time for their tantrums, it is time for a celebration of the candidate the Dems put up.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)because people live's matter to me.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Merryland
(1,134 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)dad convinced me. I am glad I did - at least I did not help Nixon in. But forcing a candidate down our throats is NOT a good thing.
Avalon Sparks
(2,566 posts)MineralMan
(146,324 posts)Too cool. Oh...wait...maybe. I guess this hasn't been organized yet and there's no list of attendees who are planning the trip.
"Almost certainly" is not convincing. Show me the website with the sign-up information. I'll wait here.
RashaMZak
(32 posts)There is a group with 1100+ so far
https://www.facebook.com/groups/MarchOnTheDNC/
and at least some of the events I'm attending on there so far have 1k+ listed attending 2k+ interested, we're in only April still. This past weekend planning began with groups coordinating and meeting with the legal team. The republican convention here got thousands of protestors in 2000 in less heated times. I'm sure the turnout this year might not be "hundreds of thousands", but it'll at least match Chicago in 1968, if not surpass, I think. We're at the direct center of the Northeast corridor, Occupy events in this region were some of the biggest of the country. That said, I hope all is peaceful and protestors are allowed their right to express grievances - there are a good plenty who care not who wins, but who have other reasons to protest beyond the election.
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)Sillliness. Another 1,000,000 Man March or any of the other "mass demonstrations" that needed only a couple of porta-potties.
You get back to me when there are 100,000 attendees who have confirmed. Thanks.
handmade34
(22,756 posts)COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)8 people in 16 days. They are flocking to the cause!
RashaMZak
(32 posts)But read ahead where I said
" I'm sure the turnout this year might not be "hundreds of thousands", but it'll at least match Chicago in 1968, if not surpass, I think."
Which is to say, that huge, no, but when the Occupy eviction attracted 10k-30k people on 2 day's notice, I think you'd be foolishly underestimating a cause even more mainstream not getting at least enough protestors for media coverage. My generation also grew up with two previous ones, Boomers and Xers, who don't carry the same disdain towards street protest that the older adults of my Boomer parents' time had.
greatauntoftriplets
(175,748 posts)newblewtoo
(667 posts)First I remember hearing about going to Chicago was in April of '68 around spring break. Can't start to soon but have to get something going before school is out. Of course now with this thing called the internet that may not be such an important date.
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)Even if there are only 5,000 or 15,000 it will be enough
to cause a repeat.
I watched in 68 and was shocked.
Naturally now there would be heavy use of teargas
and pepper spray.
Yes, I see a split in the party coming, and I also
remember, who won that election.
BainsBane
(53,041 posts)That would be a fitting ending to Bernie's campaign. And if it has the result that the 1968 demonstrations did by turning the election over to the GOP, all the better. They accomplish through Cruz or Trump what they couldn't through Bernie. It's a win/win for a self-entitled minority.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Mayor Daley machine and party deal makers that made it possible for Richard Nixon to win in 1968.
Don't blame the anti-war movement and Eugene McCarthy supporters for that.
Now you spreading the latest line of attack against Bernie's supporters claiming they will support Cruz and Trump because they will
implement Bernie's program and platform!!!???
Boy, desperate people and panicking and making up a ton of bull shit to toss at Bernie and his supporters.
Do you think your pitch will stick?
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)You are always so negative.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)The east coast can alone mobilize hundreds of thousands of people on short notice.
RashaMZak
(32 posts)I'm sure 3+ months is plenty of time, as well.
handmade34
(22,756 posts)just my opinion
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)It is exciting to protest!
Late July, I can probably swing a week off in late July.
Hmmm.....
Capn Sunshine
(14,378 posts)The race will be over by then despite the "Baghdad Bob" pronouncements of imminent victory coming out of the Sanders Camp.
Senator Sanders has promised that he will support Hillary, and his campaign at this point is hoping they can get the genie back in the bottle. Just the posters here give you an idea of what you're going to deal with. While I remember those halcyon days of the Chicago convention, I learned my lesson about how violence appears to the electorate. Those left of left have never been good at going along with the flow.
By the way, we lost that election 31,783,783 to 31,271,839, so the aversion factor could have been what put Nixon over the top.
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)Yeah, no.
/ignore.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)I will never side with the likes of Hillary or you.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)OTOH, so are his supporters.
Unlike Hillary, Bernie is NOT an authoritarian, nor does he attract people who support authoritarian leadership to his campaign.
This campaign has never been about Bernie.
It HAS been about The Movement for Equal Opportunity, Equal Protections, Equal Rights, Equal Justice, Equal Access, Environmental Protections, a just distribution of Wealth,....for EVERYBODY, not just Billionaires. (Once a goal of the Democratic Party, but sadly, no longer true.)
SEE: FDR's 2nd Bill of Rights if you need further clarification.
If Bernie disappeared tonight, The Movement he has tapped into would continue,
maybe in Philadelphia, maybe not,
but continue it will, and I will be supporting them.
The Movement will be ever vigilant and loudly outspoken whether Hillary or another Republican is elected.
We aren't going away.
We WILL be heard.
Our Issues and Grievances WILL be addressed.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)Bernie does not have some hold over all of us. We really want him to be President and we will work hard for him, but he cannot and I do not think he will dictate to us how to behave.
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)... The Democratic Party needs to be put on notice, and Bernie, should he lose, must extract from the party real change, not only in it's platform, but in its leadership and structure, as well as in the Hillary campaign itself. I think he'll be able to do that if the people turn out. If Hillary is the nominee, he should say, "Look, you want a few million more votes, then you have to be the person you claim to be, not the person you have been." Let's remember, that Hillary went to a really progressive liberal college and studied Alinsky. She's is not conservative, and with Bernie's help she can find her liberal backbone. If Bernie loses, he must get some really good concessions, and a peaceful demonstration of hundreds of thousands will help him get that.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)with 8 years of republican hell plus a hardcore reich wing SCOTUS.
Sarandon says Trump will bring the revolution. They are all in for the devastation of a republican win.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)LuvLoogie
(7,020 posts)brooklynite
(94,679 posts)Did they ever come up with a final headcount?
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)brooklynite
(94,679 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Do you have more information?
bvar22
(39,909 posts)They want rain without thunder and lightening.
They want the ocean without the awful roar of its many waters.
This struggle may be a moral one;
or it may be a physical one; or it may be both moral and physical;
but it must be a struggle. Power concedes nothing without a demand.
It never did and it never will.
---Frederick Douglass
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)If Bernie is denied the DWS-DNC nomination by non-democratic means, I will be right outside to persuade him to run to November as an Independent.
Imagine for a moment... 1,000,000 Berniecrats show up at the DWS-DNC convention to urge Bernie to continue running to November as an Independent should the convention deny Bernie the nomination. Just imagine...
Bernie said, "I will do EVERYTHING I CAN to ensure a republicon does not win the White House". For my money, EVERYTHING includes running as an Independent if by non-democratic means the DWS-DNC deny him.
That's just some of what I've seen on the interwebs regarding "BRING THE PEACEFUL REVOLUTION TO PHILADELPHIA, JULY 23-25."