2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders Is Even Less Competitive Than He Appears
Bernie Sanderss supporters are fond of the hypothesis that Democratic superdelegates, the elected leaders and party officials who currently support Hillary Clinton by a lopsided-doesnt-even-begin-to-describe-it 469 to 31, are going to bow to the will of the people if Sanders ends up winning more pledged delegates than Clinton by June.
Theres just one hiccup in this logic: Sanders fans seem to be conflating the pledged delegate count and the will of the voters, when in fact the two are far from interchangeable.
Sanderss reliance on extremely low-turnout caucus states has meant the pledged delegate count overstates his share of votes. To date, Sanders has captured 46 percent of Democrats pledged delegates but just 42 percent of raw votes. So even if Sanders were to draw even in pledged delegates by June which is extremely unlikely Clinton could be able to persuade superdelegates to stick with her by pointing to her popular vote lead.
Sanders already has a nearly impossible task ahead of him in trying to erase Clintons pledged delegate lead. Hes down by 212 delegates, meaning hed need to win 56 percent of those remaining to nose in front. He has dominated caucus states such as Idaho and Washington, but only two caucus states Wyoming and North Dakota remain on the calendar. Whats more, the biggest states left New York and California favor Clinton demographically.
Including caucus results, Clinton leads Sanders by almost 2.4 million raw votes, 9.4 million to just more than 7 million, according to The Green Papers. So then, what would it take for Sanders to overtake Clinton in the popular vote by the end of the primaries in June?
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-is-even-further-behind-in-votes-than-he-is-in-delegates/
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)The hives outbreak at the camp is perfectly understandable.
wyldwolf
(43,868 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)We need to take a long hard look at our policies and whether they reflect our country's values. I would like to posit that the policies we've been pushing do not in fact they in some specific cases are the antithesis of what our country stands for and as such they should be revisited and be changed.
We could start by changing the definition of the scope of new (and ideally, existing) trade in services agreements to not use the GATS Article I:3 (b) and (c) text.
Why is the US trying to force OTHER countries to privatize essential public services like health care and education? We should stop doing that. We need to stop doing that right now.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Your transparency page is showing!
wyldwolf
(43,868 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Almost every OP attacking Sanders is put up with someone with their transparence page showing.
Whats up with that? Orders from above to go full negative? Turn what has been ruining Hillary's campaign all the way up to 11?
wyldwolf
(43,868 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)It's pretty obvious Full Negative is the new Clinton campaign strategy
Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)I smell the fear in your confidence.