2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMissouri hasn't flipped and can't flip. The primary result is binding.
From the Missouri Democratic delegate selection plan:
Accordingly, delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated so
as to fairly reflect the expressed presidential (or uncommitted)
preference of the primary voters in each district. The National
Convention delegates and alternates selected at the district level
shall be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the primary
vote won in that district by each preference, except that
preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any
delegates or alternates.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bw8qd8A8ZSVLY0RGWFNtMlJkdXc/view
Delegates participating in the remaining multi-tier caucus system will not be voting on how many delegates Bernie and Hillary each get. Rather, they will be voting on which of the Bernie delegates are selected to fill the Bernie slots and which of the Hillary delegates will fill the Hillary slots. The number of Bernie delegates and Hillary delegates is already fixed based on the primary voting results.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)w4rma
(31,700 posts)KPN
(15,647 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)KPN
(15,647 posts)He and his campaign played by the rules -- just like Hillary did in Iowa, Nevada the day of the caucus, and Massachusetts to name a few.
But the fact that you are worried about this says a lot. It says you are worried.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)The Superdelegates are playing by the rules as well.
KPN
(15,647 posts)He's been very frank about being aggressive in flipping them. Playing by the rules. BTW, I'm not complaining either.
Seems to me you are the complainer.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Don't think so. Projection is a fascinating behavior.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)Because that is what you said.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)No it isn't ... but I'm used to people like you putting words in my mouth by reading what you want to read, not what was actually written.
"Then you need to quit crying about how Superdelegates don't vote with the "will of the people""
He said no, then you doubled down. I was just wondering if you had a link to where he was. Now you are saying you didn't say that?
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)After KPH asked "who's crying" ... I replied
Who's crying? It's been all over here at DU in thread after thread by Sanders supporters
You'll notice I didn't say KPH. You should probably go troll somebody else.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)To have anyone actually believe bullshit like that, it has to be something not already comprehensively refuted in multiple places.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Hillary's delegates not bothering to show up is Princess Weathervane's problem, not Bernie's.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)That seems to be ok with Sanders supporters on a selective basis, when it benefits Sanders.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)For the record, I prefer direct voting (in both primaries and the GE) for that exact reason: it best reflects the will of the people. I'm not okay with what seems to have happened in Nevada. That's not democracy.
But nevertheless, Hillary's people were the ones to fuck up, and describing what happened as Bernie "sealing" anything is a flat-out lie.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Sanders cheerleaders cry about how Superdelegates are going against the "will of the voters" in their home states when they've come out in support of Clinton, if their state voted for Sanders.
Here, changing the number of delegates from what the percentage was in the caucuses also goes against the "will of the voters".
But you Sanders cheerleaders feel that it's ok in Nevada because "those are the rules". Well, the Superdelegates can vote for whichever candidate they choose, because those are the rules.
You can't pick and choose which rules you're in favor of. Well, you can .. but that is called hypocrisy.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)When it was pointed out that that's a lie, you pivoted onto a broad-brush assumption that Sanders supporters are okay with what happened in Nevada.
Now, instead of FUCKING READING WHAT I WROTE, you double down with the same broad-brush horseshit To wit:
That, despite this statement in the very post you responded to:
Feel free to offer a retraction any time...
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)but it's quite clear that the Sanders supporters here at DU were quite pleased with it. And yes, I'm speaking in a broad brush. I was then, I am still now. You won't be getting a retraction any time soon, because what I stated in the general sense is still quite true.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)You lived down to them.
Bye, now...
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)They never seem to be able to stoop low enough.
Buh bye.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)We aren't going to hold them back lol?
2pooped2pop
(5,420 posts)they did not show. Probably because they either changed their minds when the understood what a clusterfuck a Clinton presidency would be, or because they had already been paid.
eomer
(3,845 posts)Here's the Nevada delegate selection plan:
https://nvdems.3cdn.net/728ffa1321e41a0452_9ym6idkbz.pdf
The delegates in later steps are not bound by the results of the first step (the "non-binding presidential preference caucus" . The rules provide for a specific time period during the second and third steps in the multi-tier caucus process for delegates to realign with a different candidate.
So this means that the delegate counts could change (and they did) during the April 2nd county conventions and they could also do so during the June 4th and 5th state convention.
Clearly a system by which the delegate counts can change during later steps is an intentional feature designed into the Nevada caucus system. And obviously, therefore, each candidate should continue to make their case in Nevada throughout the multi-tier process. Doing so is not "stealing" delegates, it is persuading them, as per the design of the system, that you are the best candidate. This system would seem to give Nevada (and other states that use a similar process) more influence than if they had a single binding step like Missouri does (and most states do).
LiberalFighter
(51,020 posts)They are only electing delegates to fill the positions allotted to a candidate.
Each presidential candidate also have the right to approve the delegates allotted to them that will go to the National Convention.
When I go to our state convention as a state delegate I attend a district caucus meeting in which we decide the national delegates. I can only vote for delegates of either Clinton or for Sanders. We have to declare which ballot and only delegates of one candidate are on the ballot.
After district level delegates are elected at the state convention they all meet as a whole to elect the at-large delegates.
Throughout that process the number of delegates each candidate won during the primary or caucus election does not change after that.
eomer
(3,845 posts)Are you talking about the process in Indiana?
Autumn
(45,120 posts)They were replaced with the delegates who showed up, Bernie's delegates. If you can't be bothered to come back to vote you don't count. As delegates they knew they had to return. T hey must have had better things to do. That's how it works
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)But so many Sanders cheerleaders feel that Superdelegates should have to vote the way their state did in the primary. It seems that they only like the rules that benefit Sanders.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)as Hilary's supporters have been saying it is Bernie's delegates would have stayed home and Hillary would have won them. Hilary's delegates didn't bother to show up.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)to do with what happened in Nevada? Nothing, Hillary's delegates didn't bother to show up.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Sanders cheerleaders don't like the rules about Superdelegates, but they love the rules about Nevada.
You can't have it both ways.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Like I said, Sanders cheerleaders only like the rules that benefit Sanders ... it's called hypocrisy.
LiberalFighter
(51,020 posts)The rules don't allow it.
eomer
(3,845 posts)Not sure where you're getting your information from - maybe you can post a link because the Nevada official delegate selection plan says different:
http://nvdems.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/NSDP_DelegateSelectionPlan_2016.pdf
eomer
(3,845 posts)My corrected understanding is that the allocation of the 23 district-level delegates is based on the original caucus results and won't change. But the allocation of the 7 at-large delegates and the 5 PLEO delegates occurs at the state convention and will change. So Bernie will pick up 2 delegates and the total count will be 18 for Hillary and 17 for Bernie.
eomer
(3,845 posts)In the specific case of Missouri the number of national delegates for each candidate is already fixed due to it having a binding primary. So the fact that more Bernie delegates than Hillary delegates showed up at one of the middle tiers in the multi-tier process doesn't have the effect of flipping Missouri from Hillary to Bernie. There hasn't been and can't be any flipping of Missouri.
On the other hand, there are other states where the number of final national delegates *do* depend on how many delegates for each candidate show up at each caucus tier. I believe that Washington State is one example.
The larger point is that there is some variation in the process from state to state and people should refrain from claiming how the caucus/primary process works unless they look into each state specifically.
Gothmog
(145,479 posts)Under the Missouri Delegate Selection plan, the results of the primary are binding and can not be changes. See rule 6A of the Delegate Selection plan https://drive.google.com/a/chriskoster.com/file/d/0Bw8qd8A8ZSVLY0RGWFNtMlJkdXc/view?pref=2&pli=1 In addition each Candidate has approval rights over their delegates under rule 5 of the Delegation Selection Plan. In Texas, I have been asked to help vet the delegates to the national convention for my Senate district for the Clinton campaign. The campaign takes this vetting process seriously.
I am not sure what the Sanders people think that they are doing. The primary is binding and they can not change the results fo the primary under Missouri Democratic party rules.
BTW, the Nevada delegate selection plan is also clear and the Sanders people will not be able to steal Nevada http://nvdems.3cdn.net/728ffa1321e41a0452_9ym6idkbz.pdf
alternate positions shall be allocated so as to fairly reflect the
expressed presidential preference or uncommitted status of the
caucus participants in each district. Therefore, the national
convention delegates elected at the district level shall be allocated
in proportion to the percentage of the caucus vote won in that
district by each preference, except that preferences falling below a
15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates or alternates.
(Rule 13.B)
eomer
(3,845 posts)Both the second and third tiers specifically allow for delegates to switch from one candidate to another (to realign). Here are those rules for the second tier:
aligned with a preference group when they are registered for the
convention. A delegate shall be required to designate his or her
preference group at the time of registration. A delegate who
refuses to designate a preference group shall be registered by the
Credentials Committee as uncommitted.
The Credentials Committee of each county convention shall have
the responsibility of determining the number of delegates within
each preference group, and shall, upon completion of registration
(at 12:00 p.m.), present a report to inform the convention of the size
of each preference group.
Following the report of the Credentials Committee, all delegates
shall be afforded a one (1) hour period to realign with other groups
if they so desire. A delegate choosing not to realign shall continue
to be counted a part of his or her initial alignment as
aforementioned.
Any preference group failing to obtain fifteen percent (15%) of the
total number of registered delegates at the county convention shall
be declared non-viable.
Upon completion of the one (1) hour period for initial alignment of
all delegates, the Credentials Committee shall report to the
convention the viable and non-viable groups. In the event there are
non-viable groups, members of non-viable groups shall have a
reasonable amount of time not less than one-half hour in which to
realign in second alignment with or into other viable groups if they
so choose. Members of viable groups will not be allowed to realign
the second alignment. If there are no non-viable groups, no second
alignment will be conducted.
g) Election of delegates and alternates to the state convention will
occur at the county conventions after the completion of alignment,
and shall be conducted by non-secret signed ballot (Rule 2.F,
Charter of the Democratic Party of the United States Article 9,
Section 12). Nevada state statute provides for the election of one
(1) delegate per 150 registered Democratic voters in each county
(Rule 8.B, NRS 293.145). Should the number of delegates and
alternates to a county convention not exceed that countys
maximum delegate allocation to the state convention, all delegates
and alternates shall become automatic delegates to the state
convention.
The rules for the third tier are similar.
So in both the second and third tiers the alignment of delegates can change and the result of that alignment (including how many delegates showed up to participate) is what determines the number of national delegates for each candidate.
But we do agree about Missouri.
Gothmog
(145,479 posts)The reallocation provision you cite are inconsistent with rule I found. Conflicts like this will be resolved by the credentials committee
eomer
(3,845 posts)The provisions I cited are the specific and detailed steps for each tier. Clearly those steps have to be followed, including the realignment period. It would make no sense to not do the realignment step - it is clear and specific in the rules.
The paragraph you cited is ambiguous but can be interpreted so as to not conflict with the specific steps laid out for each tier. That interpretation would be that that paragraph requires the allocation in each tier to reflect the expressed preference of the participants in that tier. To interpret it as saying that all allocations have to reflect the preferences of the first tier would make the specific steps for the second and third tiers completely inoperable.
So I don't think there will be any dispute about this - the steps laid out in detail for each tier will be followed and those steps include the choice by each participant in each tier to realign to a different candidate at their sole discretion.
eomer
(3,845 posts)Of the 35 national pledged delegates, 23 of them (the district-level delegates) are apportioned based on the original caucus votes. That's what the paragraph cited by Gothmog is saying. So those delegates came out 13 for Hillary and 10 for Bernie based on the original caucus results and will not change.
The other 12 delegates (7 at-large delegates and 5 PLEO delegates) are apportined at the state convention and will be affected by the increase in Bernie numbers. So the 7 at-large delegates will now be Bernie 4 to Hillary 3 instead of Bernie 3 to Hillary 4. And the PLEO delegates will not be Bernie 3 to Hillary 2 instead of Bernie 2 to Hillary 3.
Gothmog
(145,479 posts)This is interesting http://www.politifact.com/nevada/statements/2016/apr/07/blog-posting/no-bernie-sanders-didnt-retroactively-win-nevada/
Hillary Clinton was declared the winner of Nevadas presidential caucuses back in February, but some supporters of Bernie Sanders are claiming the Vermont senator might have won the state after all.
The pronouncement came after Sanders delegates ended up outnumbering Clintons during the hectic Clark County Democratic Convention on April 2, leading many media outlets and supporters to declare that Sanders retroactively "won" the state by outmaneuvering Clinton.
So, did Sanders add another state to his column as many have claimed?
The answer is no, and it likely will remain that way.
Well tell you why.....
Our ruling
Several reports claimed that Bernie Sanders retroactively won Nevadas presidential caucuses, based on higher-than-expected turnout at a major county convention.
Sanders likely swung two delegates his way after the county convention, but we wont know for sure until the state convention selects the delegates in May. Either way, Clinton still holds a narrow delegate lead, projections show. That lead is larger if you include the support of Nevadas so-called "super-delegates."
We rate this claim False.
LiberalFighter
(51,020 posts)They will elect a bunch of delegates that starts out large and reduces at each level until the last stage (state convention) where they elect the actual national delegates.
In the case of Nevada, they elected delegates from their respective precincts. Each precinct could have 1 or more delegates elected.
Those delegates go to the next step to elect delegates that represent them at the next level.
It continues until they elect delegates from the congressional district based on caucus voters from the first level.
The original voters at the first stage don't all show up. Only the delegates elected from the previous stage get to vote.
eomer
(3,845 posts)Did you see that delegates in the second and third caucus steps have the option of realigning with a different candidate?
Or if you weren't interested in discussing that question that is okay too - just not sure whether your post was meant to refute mine, agree with it, or to just add other information.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)First of all
Is a very biased way of putting it. The HRC camp printed bad info, sent it around, Bernie folks found out and showed up in full force. This may have been added by the attempts to depose a party leader the day before, and the fact that the main caucus had several cheap issues like Delores calling racist, people letting people vote with out any forms, casinos letting their people vote on the clock, etc...So come the actual next level and less HRC delegates showed up from district. It is that simple, less delegates=less votes. The HRC crew even called the cops on some of the people that day...they were trying their best to do something and messed up.
23 delegates are assigned based on the district level, they can not change, but 11 more are assigned at the state level, they are reflective of the delegates that show. As of this moment in Nevada Bernie is either 1 under or over, that is a fact. How do I know well I called the actual office and asked. I talked for 10 minutes. The only unknowns are the break down of the 23, no site shows it, and how many will show at the final level...which at this moment give Bernie the upper hand...if less HRC show up again, he will win because of the margin.
As for Missouri, it may have the same break down of district and upper level, that is how they work in most of the caucus systems. That is why Washington is still only showing 20 some delegates assigned to Bernie even though he has over 70 in theory.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)change during the multi-tier caucus. They will certify the numbers after all the caucuses have been held. Primaries have fixed numbers. Caucuses do not. Nice try though.
Ino
(3,366 posts)liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Ino
(3,366 posts)I was born in, lived in, voted in Missouri my whole life. I think I know.
I'd love it if Bernie got more delegates here, but it won't happen.
eomer
(3,845 posts)In the OP I linked to and excerpted from the official Missouri Delegate Selection Plan. Missouri bases the number of delegates to the national convention on the results of the primary:
In Washington, based on a quick review of their delegate selection plan, the allocation of delegates between candidates is based on the number of delegates for each candidate that show up at the third-tier congressional district caucuses on May 21. So you're right that the number of delegates for each candidate in Washington state is not known yet.
But, again, the rules in Missouri are different. In Missouri the allocation of delegates between candidates is based on the proportion of primary votes in each congressional district for each candidate, and that proportion is known already.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)The primary is the "first determining step" in the delegate selection process.
eomer
(3,845 posts)The multiple steps (after the primary vote) are only about which delegates within each candidate's camp move up from tier to tier and become the national delegates. But the number of delegates for each candidate is already fixed based on the binding primary vote results, as per the provision that I excerpted before:
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)be determined until that state holds its Democratic Party state convention. It's not very difficult to estimate the number each candidate will get, since the rules require that they be proportional to primary or caucus results, but the actual delegate number come from the congressional distict conventions for almost all delegates. A few in each state are at large delegates, allocated according to caucus or primary votes as well.
This is a matter of much concern and deliberation at each convention level, and making the delegate count as proportional as possible, even with rounding that is necessary, is taken very seriously by the Democratic Party organization in each state.
At this point, I don't believe any state conventions have yet been held. Until they are, all delegate counts are only estimates. Those estimates will be fairly accurate and won't change dramatically in any state, but there will be shifts of a delegate or two by the end of the state conventions, where the actual delegates are selected.
eomer
(3,845 posts)Missouri has a binding primary, unlike some other states.
Not sure where you got your information. Maybe it's wrong or maybe you misinterpreted it (one or the other). Do you have a link?
RandySF
(59,079 posts)In 1992 in Michigan, The Clinton and Briwn delegates were allocated proportionally by result. It was left to congressional district conventions to decide WHO will represent the candidates at the national convention and they were ratified at the state convention.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Missouri was basicly tied.they tied the pledged delegates.
If you complam about that it's ridculous bernie won wisconsin and clinton only won 1 county and bernie only gets 10 more delegates
from wisconsin she did.
Gothmog
(145,479 posts)Read the plan. It is on the state party's website.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Joob
(1,065 posts)eomer
(3,845 posts)From the discussion in this and another thread I have a different understanding of the rules in Nevada and Washington than I started with.
Originally I thought that the allocation between candidates could change for all pledged delegates during the later convention steps.
Now my understanding is that the district-level delegates (the largest group) is based only on the results of the original caucus vote. And that only the PLEO and at-large delegates are allocated later and potentially affected by changes in the proportion of delegates in the later steps. Again, that's for Nevada and Washington, which use very similar language in their respective delegate selection plans.
After reviewing Missouri one more time I still believe that all of its delegates (district-level, PLEO, and at-large) are allocated based on the original binding primary results.
So for these three states here are the numbers that can change due to shifts in the relative strength of preference in the later steps:
Missouri: 0 out of the total 71 can change in later stages
Nevada: 12 out of the total 35 can change in later stages
Washington: 34 out of the total 101 can change in later stages
Nevada has completed the second of three tiers and as a result it appears the 12 delegates will shift from 7 to 5 in favor of Hillary and become 7 to 5 in favor of Bernie. The overall total would shift from 20 to 15 in favor of Hillary and become 18 to 17 in favor of Hillary.
Washington has had only the first of three tiers so it's not known yet whether any of Washington's 34 delegates will change sides.
Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)eomer
(3,845 posts)Democratic Socialism, on the other hand, is still running.
And some of us are working on defeating undemocratic fascism. Not sure from your comment whether you are or not.
jcgoldie
(11,636 posts)It doesn't seem very democratic but it also doesn't seem very important. Her lead is 200+ delegates. The odds of these minutiae effecting the outcome are astronomical.