2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd" Why Obama is winning AND will win this race.
Here is some video of today's "The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd."
Day after day there has been analysis of a "Romney surge" and President back on his heels against a Romney campaign in full command of the election.
But notice what happens when the political pundits sit down and calmly asses how each candidate is fairing in the battleground states and the race to 270. As you watch this, remember there are only 2 weeks left, and the early voting in many of these states is looking great for the President.
Question?
How is Romney in the lead with regard to anything associated with 270?
Tarheel_Dem
(31,241 posts)BigDemVoter
(4,157 posts)Just LOATHE him
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)All 4 political guests give Iowa to Obama. You can tell Chuck Todd was very upset by this.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,241 posts)nsd
(2,406 posts)That means Ohio and Wisconsin are the ball game. Win those two and we're done.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Iowa is nice. But not necessary. Wisconsin and Ohio are all that is needed. Obama can actually lose Iowa, NH, VA, NC, FL and CO and still win the Presidency.
Of course I want all of the EV we can get. But lets have some objectivity. EVEN IF Romney has a good night, just about everything on Earth has to break his way in order to win. The Math is really against him.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)about the Romney surge on election night when all the swing states turn blue.
Bake
(21,977 posts)But it will be fun to watch.
Bake
RedSpartan
(1,693 posts)Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)Including Colo.
pwb
(11,291 posts)He is as bad as gregory.
fugop
(1,828 posts)It suddenly feels like the media is admitting the true state of the race. Hope ut continues.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)It is all NV, OH, and WI. That is it. This election comes down to three states. Anyone else talking about this momentum or that momentum or national polls (that are practically tied with average polling) has no idea what they are talking about.
They are "electorally challenged". That is my new name for people that don't understand the electoral map. Obama knows it well. He got a lesson in the primaries on how to use turnout in certain states to his advantage. This is the type of election that he and his team know what works in.
Moostache
(9,897 posts)It is clearly a cover-story being put out to cover the theft of the election.
In 2008, the Republican's could not possibly steal an election that showed the polls breaking 4-7 points for Obama the 2 weeks before the election...the disparity was too large and they could cont get the race narrow enough to steal enough states to matter.
In 2012, this should not even be close at this point. Wars ending. Economy starting to show signs of life. Gas prices dropping. A bungling fool of a candidate and an ideologue as opponents. Obama should be up by 6-8 points nationally and was trending there until the media started creating the Romney surge after the first debate. The fact that Ryan and Romney have been trounced in the three subsequent debates does not move the needle at all? But ONE deb ate "win" is enough to erase a national lead for the president? No sale...it reeks of collusion and feed the troll type nonsense, the horse-race writ large...providing the narrative needed to either a) steal the election outright or b) provide a new air of illegitimacy for the president's second term to replace the birthers and death panels and other nonsense from the first term.
The electoral college is proving harder for them to cover up though.
If you over sample the south and make sure to exclude cell phones, you can easily produce polls to show whatever you want in overall votes...hell, I bet you can poll Romney winning by double digits if you want...but when you break it down by state and then by the so-called "battleground states" a totally different picture is in focus. Romney has no paths to victory without stealing just about everything if he can't grab OH AND FL.
On election night, if you see VA, NC and NH all called for Romney early, then watch out....WI may end up being the real surprise...I thought for sure that the recall of Walker would succeed there and when it didn't I started to worry about 06Nov12....
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)MSMITH33156
(879 posts)it was quite hilarious. Chuck Todd had the 4 of them pick each state.
Colorado: All 4 pick Romney. So the new total is Obama 243, Romney 215.
New Hampshire: 2-2, so he doesn't move it.
Wisconsin: All 4 pick Obama. Obama 253, Romney 215.
Virginia: 2-2, so he doesn't move it.
Iowa: All 4 pick Obama. Obama 259, Romney 215.
Ohio: All 4 pick Obama. Obama 277, Romney 215.
And Chuck Toad gets visibly upset. "If that's what you guys think, it's over. So you guys think the Midwestern firewall is going to hold. I'm not sure, I'm not sure."
Then, as an afterthought, he has them throw Florida to Romney to make it look closer.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)when all 4 gave it to Obama.
What was Chuck talking about? His OWN POLL showed Obama with a big lead there!
brooklynite
(94,737 posts)It's very hard to keep up
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)He spends most of his show describing how Romney can win, and then we get 2 minutes in which his panel says "well, Obama will win".
I believe all non southern battleground states will go to Obama.
This means Obama wins the kerry states plus Gore states of NM(which Isn't a battleground) and Iowa plus Nevada,Colorado,and
Ohio.Obama wins election.Hell he could lose Ohio and still win.He's win Ohio.
Romney could win Florida,NC,and Virginia and lose election.That doesn't mean I think he will win all 3.If voting Is looking good In NC
Obama will win both virginia and florida.Sorry but If Obama wins NC he keeps his 3 southern states.
If Obama preveils the MSM will forget all the proRomney attitude It had.It will be like people felt better about ecoomy and just
liked Obama more than Romney personally.They forget they keep trying to tell us Mccain was surging.He could still win.
Sometimes I have gotten nevouas on polling for romney because I know a lot of people would be screwed over by Romney Including
me as disabled american on SSI and Medicaid and Food stamps.But tday we are seeing a mini surge for obama after final debate.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)I am sorry but that is a joke.
LiberalFighter
(51,094 posts)To make himself look smart.