If I read it right, even switching to "Strong Republican" Rmoney loses by a considerable EV margin.

Although even if I play with the bars and select strong Democrat, the House doesn't change much at all.

Pretty good

All forecasts are for the day on which the polls were taken. They represent the outcome if the election was held on that day, not the projected outcome on November 6.

In other words, it predicts nothing. The entire scenario could change with new polling data tomorrow. All it shows is that, even if there was a strong shift to the Republicans today, if the election were held now, Obama would still get a narrow win. But that is subject to change without notice once you move past today.

but it is not a narrow win. It is electorally, but it rates it as a 99% chance.

Shit.

I must be to the freak out please more.
I am only the freak out to do more soon.
This is not a good anlayitsc to the freak out.

between strong Dem, strong Rep, etc. is that this only includes undecideds. For whatever reason, this model is really bullish on several states, so the undecideds just don't matter.

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