2016 Postmortem

DLnyc

(2,479 posts) Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:43 PM Oct 2012

Nice Map at Electoral-Vote.com (leaving out Rasmussen): O 303 and Senate 54 Dem

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct23-noras.html

I believe Electoral-Vote.com has a pretty simplistic algorithm: they just seem to average latest polls. But it is nice that they have a separate page that shows the results of excluding Rasmussen polls (adds Virginia and Colorado to Obama, for example).

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Nice Map at Electoral-Vote.com (leaving out Rasmussen): O 303 and Senate 54 Dem (Original Post) DLnyc Oct 2012 OP

I actually agree with the 303 EV Projection AaronMayorga Oct 2012 #1

I'm kind of thinking 347 DLnyc Oct 2012 #2

It's certainly not out of the question. AaronMayorga Oct 2012 #4

My feeling is many polls are underestimating GOTV effects DLnyc Oct 2012 #5

Why do they exclude the Raz poll? demosincebirth Oct 2012 #3

Go to the site; he has a link that explains why jmowreader Oct 2012 #6

In the past, Rasmussen has been an obvious, consistent outlier (much more Repub than other polls) DLnyc Oct 2012 #7

On the website GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #8

Maybe it is because there model is screwed up. nt Hutzpa Oct 2012 #9

AaronMayorga

(128 posts)

1. I actually agree with the 303 EV Projection

Reply to DLnyc (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:46 PM

Oct 2012

DLnyc

(2,479 posts)

2. I'm kind of thinking 347

Reply to AaronMayorga (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:51 PM

Oct 2012

Including Florida and North Carolina.

Just the way I think.

AaronMayorga

(128 posts)

4. It's certainly not out of the question.

Reply to DLnyc (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:31 PM

Oct 2012

Nate Silver from 538 has a 14% probability of Obama winning 330 EVs.

DLnyc

(2,479 posts)

5. My feeling is many polls are underestimating GOTV effects

Reply to AaronMayorga (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:01 PM

Oct 2012

When voting by young people is way up, that says Dems can do much better than most pollers' 'likely voter' models predict.

Just a gut feeling really. We'll see.

demosincebirth

(12,543 posts)

3. Why do they exclude the Raz poll?

Reply to DLnyc (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:27 PM

Oct 2012

jmowreader

(50,566 posts)

6. Go to the site; he has a link that explains why

Reply to demosincebirth (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:05 PM

Oct 2012

DLnyc

(2,479 posts)

7. In the past, Rasmussen has been an obvious, consistent outlier (much more Repub than other polls)

Reply to demosincebirth (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:05 PM

Oct 2012

Now it seems that:

a) there are other Repub-leaning outliers (Gravis Marketing comes to mind)

b) Rasmussen seems to be a little less blatant in this cycle.

All IMO, of course, but even Nate Silver points out that they (Ras) lean Repub, I think.

I guess the people at Electoral-Vote.com got tired of complaints that Ras polls were skewing their results.

On edit: Oh yeah, see post 6 above, there is a link on the page to an explanation (which is better than mine).
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)

8. On the website

Reply to demosincebirth (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:05 PM

Oct 2012

he says he gives an alternative Ras-free map because it is so right-leaning.

Hutzpa

(11,461 posts)

9. Maybe it is because there model is screwed up. nt

Reply to demosincebirth (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:08 PM

Oct 2012

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