2016 Postmortem

UrbScotty

(23,980 posts) Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:45 PM Oct 2012

Republican Aide Thinks Romney Will Lose Nevada

A top adviser to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) said Mitt Romney will lose Nevada this year, the Las Vegas Sun reports.

Said Pete Ernaut: "I think Obama will carry the state somewhere (between 1-3 percentage points), something like that."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/23/gop_aide_thinks_romney_will_lose_nevada.html

9 replies

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Republican Aide Thinks Romney Will Lose Nevada (Original Post) UrbScotty Oct 2012 OP

If that's true... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #1

Actually... boingboinh Oct 2012 #3

Right on the Math, But . . . DarthDem Oct 2012 #8

No . . . DarthDem Oct 2012 #6

We need BOTH WI and OH BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #9

Hispanic/Latino voters are very under-represented in polling Coyotl Oct 2012 #2

There another path involving VA, but I agree let's focus on basics. WI and OH and it's in the bag. DMacTX Oct 2012 #4

Absolutely. OH and WI will do it BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #7

ANyone who has been paying attention knows Obama is winning NV. morningfog Oct 2012 #5

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)

1. If that's true...

Reply to UrbScotty (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:50 PM

Oct 2012

...all we need is Wisconsin OR Ohio.

GOTV!!!

boingboinh

(290 posts)

3. Actually...

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:58 PM

Oct 2012

in your scenario we we need Wisconsin AND Ohio. Otherwise to exclude Ohio you would need to carry Colorado, Iowa, and NH (assuming we get Nevada too). That's a long shot. So when u look at the math the easiest path (of the many) that O has is thru Ohio. You get Ohio and this thing is on course to being over.

DarthDem

(5,256 posts)

8. Right on the Math, But . . .

Reply to boingboinh (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:22 PM

Oct 2012

Obama carrying NH, IA and CO together is hardly a "long shot." The only true tossup of the three is Colorado, and I suspect that polls there are undersampling Hispanics, just as they are in NV.

DarthDem

(5,256 posts)

6. No . . .

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:20 PM

Oct 2012

The Kerry-Gore combo states plus NV = 263, but that group already includes WI. So we need exactly one of Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, or North Carolina. Mittens needs all five.

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

9. We need BOTH WI and OH

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:23 PM

Oct 2012

Add in Nevada and we'll have 271 electoral votes. But we do need to win both Ohio and Wisconsin.

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

2. Hispanic/Latino voters are very under-represented in polling

Reply to UrbScotty (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:55 PM

Oct 2012

Same goes in Florida, Colorado, Arizona

DMacTX

(301 posts)

4. There another path involving VA, but I agree let's focus on basics. WI and OH and it's in the bag.

Reply to UrbScotty (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:09 PM

Oct 2012

assuming as we are doing in this scenario that NV is ours, which I definitely think it will be. There's massive early voting lead in Clark County (biggest county in state-Vegas), and we are ahead in the Washo County (2nd biggest voting county in state - Reno) which Romney MUST win to offset Clark County deficit and have a chance with his rural voting base.

Dang, I rambled. Sorry

BlueDemKev

(3,003 posts)

7. Absolutely. OH and WI will do it

Reply to DMacTX (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:21 PM

Oct 2012

We MUST win both of those states. No ifs, ands, or buts.

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

5. ANyone who has been paying attention knows Obama is winning NV.

Reply to UrbScotty (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:10 PM

Oct 2012

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