A Bernie Jernie, as it were.

That's what I suspect the Sadners campaign whiteboard looks like.

doesn't sound very confident, does he?

that's all he really needs

Phonebanking for dummies.

I think we can win NY state.

Similarly Hillary stands out as what she is and she won't do a single thing for you.

Cheers.

HillaryHags is rude and over the top. 'hags' is a nasty term and this poster is calling fellow members including women 'hags' Please consider a hide.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon Apr 11, 2016, 01:53 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: This is a rude comments. Show it so everyone can identify the person who make such poor comments. I don't believe in censoring.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Don't dish it out if you can't take it. Bernie Bros is sexist and if that is allowed then it's only fair Hillary Hags is also allowed!
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Sorry, I agree with alert, this is over-the-top rude.
"Bro" is generally a positive term.
The one used in this post is not.
Hide.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Close vote. The HillaryHags was in response to the BernieBros comment. I hate the "hags" comment but do not find it was rude or over the top, given the context, nor do i find it directed at a "fellow member."

On a separate note, I cannot wait for the election to be over as I hate this in-fighting. I'd vote for any democrat over trump any day, no matter who it is...
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: tit for tat. The whole series of comments should be dumped.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

It's the Great Bernie Rush of 2016

For math purposes, just keep in mind, if he rolls into June 7 needing 60% of the pledged delegates, that is mathematically attainable and even plausible if CA is breaking for him.

Yeah, no

Math. Hillary will not mathematically eliminate Bernie through the entirety of the voting primary. She will not secure 2,383 pledged delegates.

Political possibility and likelihood are separate questions.

He has no obligation to admit defeat before the convention, but at what point do you owe it to your supporters to be honest?

get what we're about.

We know damn well that it is next to none that he surpasses her in the pledged delegate count.

That is his only viable path, to secure the pledged delegate majority. I support him staying until one of them secure 2,026 pledged delegates.

at some point this becomes "so you're telling me there's a chance"

Hillary will not eliminate Bernie through the pledged delegate process.

as soon as Clinton clinches a majority of pledged delegates (assuming that happens), she declares victory, the media declares her the winner, Obama endorses her, Elizabeth Warren endorses her, Al Gore endorses her, etc etc.

That's exactly what happened in 2008 when Obama had clinched both the pledged delegate majority and the overall majority including pledged and super delegates.

to get his voters to the polls. If he admits he can't get the majority of pledged delegates, the race is over. Is there a theoretical way he could win without New York? Yes. Is there a practical way? No.

It's a campaign. He needs his voters to show up. He will keep claiming he can win until it becomes impossible for him to win, even theoretically.

We will know for certain by the end of April, for all practical purposes.

I know this, though: The superdelegates will not vote to make the person with fewer pledged delegates the nominee. That absolutely will not happen. Bernie has to go to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates if he hopes to get the nomination.

So, he has to keep claiming that there is a path to that outcome. If he cannot, he's done and will have to admit it.

need a reality check

What some people believe does not add up to pledged delegates. There are more primary elections in April. He needs good wins in those. It doesn't look like he'll get them, as far as I can see.

His path to the nomination is getting narrower and narrower, and now is on the edge of a steep cliff. Any misstep along the route will end in disaster for him.

New York is next. I'll be watching on the morning of the 20th for the results. Then, a week later, I"ll be watching for more results. It is the actual results in those primary elections that matter. Nothing else really does.

Candidates say all sorts of things. Some of those things are true. Others are more questionable. They're candidates and need voters to turn out and vote.

It's all about the donation faucet.

Enough, at least, to get him through April. What he needs is votes, and confidence is important in getting those. So, he's trying to promote confidence in his chances. That's Campaign Strategy 101.

I wouldn't expect anything else from any candidate. When he can no longer instill confidence in his supporters and recruit new ones, the race is over. As long as there is a theoretical way for him to go to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates, I think he'll keep trying.

As observers, we may see things differently, though. I don't have a primary or caucus coming up. Mine's over. I'm an observer at this point.

support to erode faster than ice during climate change.

Hang onto your hats folks.

Inquiring minds want to know. . .

Let's give Hillary a 56% in NY. Sanders has to carry the rest at 59%...

http://DemRace.com/?share=TeP7Tsak

Super delegates are not going to be supporting Sanders in the numbers needed for Sanders to be the nominee without winning New York by double digits

You can't keep losing and remain viable.

... either close wins or close losses (1 or 2%) in the Apr 26 primaries (CT, DE, MD, PA, RI). If he gets out of April down by less than 150 delegates, he'll need huge wins in IN, WV, MT, NM, and ND; significant wins (~5%) in KY, OR. If he splits CA and NJ with Clinton, he stands a chance.

All of that must play out -- ALL OF IT -- or he's done.

60+ swings are not that easy to come by

Starting in MAY, he'd need:

80% in IN
50% in Guam
75% in WV
55% in KY, OR, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
50% in CA
80% in MT
50% in NJ
65 % in NM
75% in SD

Then, if the takes 100% of Washington DC, he still loses by about 5 delegates. (If HRC wins NY with 55%, he needs yet another 50 delegates)

This ain't gonna be easy for him.

He needs wins and more specifically wins that resulted in net pledged delegate gains.

All of them. He then emerges about 153 delegates behind. Then, the rest of my post is correct.

See also my response to Post #50.

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