2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFormer Clinton Adviser Predicts Bernie Sanders Will Beat Hillary Clinton
Bill Curry, a former counselor to Bill Clinton, predicts that,Hillary Clinton is going to lose: She doesnt even see the frustrated progressive wave that will nominate Bernie Sanders. He initially looked at how Clinton avoided answering questions about her position on TPP, but then looked at her overall campaign. Besides economics, Curry discussed another major weakness for Clinton: Shes weakest on the sleeper issue of 2016: public corruption and the general debasement of politics and government.
I dont think she can enlist Wall Street oligarchs and recruit an army of dewy-eyed volunteers. Above all, I dont think she can spout populist rhetoric without any policy specifics to back it up. Clinton insiders also ingratiate themselves to reporters by dishing about her need to seem more authentic. Someone should tell them its hard to seem real when you wont tell people what you really think.
A bigger problem for Clinton may be that we know what she thinks. Her platform is like Obamas trade deal; she wont say whats in it, but we can easily guess. It isnt populism and it isnt reform. The TPP? She never met a trade deal she didnt like. The minimum wage? She and Obama let McDonalds get the drop on them. The surveillance state? Her handling of her emails told us all we need to know of her views on transparency. More war in Iraq? For 12 years as a senator and secretary of state she was John McCains best friend. If she gets to be commander in chief, get ready to rumble.
Shes weakest on the sleeper issue of 2016: public corruption and the general debasement of politics and government. Voter disgust is so deep even consultants who make their real livings off corporate clients tell their political clients to talk about it. In her speech Clinton vowed to wage and win four fights for you. The first three were jobs, families and national security. The fourth was reforming our government and revitalizing our democracy. She vowed to overturn Citizens United and fight GOP efforts to disenfranchise the young, the poor and people of color, but then drifted off onto technology and cutting waste. Unlike nearly every Republican announcing for president, she never mentioned ethics or corruption.
Democratic elites dont want to hear it but Hillary Clintons in trouble. It .... <snip>
Link: http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2015/06/22/former-clinton-adviser-predicts-bernie-sanders-will-beat-hillary-clinton/
I'm sure this will probably get howls from the Hillary crowd for linking to a Liberal site on Democratic Underground but, oh well. For those of you that exist outside of the establishment bubble, you may find this article interesting.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)See: Math
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)The only ones making a stink about Super Delegates are the straw graspers.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)We need to get the corruption of Big Money out of our government.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Hillary doesn't run the DNC, but she will be head of our party starting in January.
Make a suggestion then.
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)Avalon Sparks
(2,566 posts)No matter what mess the Repibs are in, there is one thing above all others that appears to unite them.
A raw hatred of the Clintons.
Two Clintons in power will make their heads explode.
Have you listened to talk radio, checked out repub message boards, or even general coo nets on articles about the election from various news sites?
They are ecstatic at the thought of Hillary winning the primary. The can't wait to vote agaisnt her.
Any for anyone that just reads DU comments that think the Bernies will vote gor her...
Wrong again, most on DU won't say that, it could result in a ban.
For the general public that comments on other sites, like articles on Facebook, Bernies fb page and general comment like on huff post and cnn.....id say it's about 1 out of 10 Bernies that say they will vote for her.
I think you under estimate as well, how many average folks distrust and do not like the Clintons.
It's my opinion her supporters on DU might be a bit isolated.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)more than Sanders and ahead in delegates and super delegates.
How is that isolated?
She is not a fringe candidate.
She is the front runner.
Avalon Sparks
(2,566 posts)Most votes does not by any means confirm the best candidate.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Have they ever contradicted the pledged delegate total?
No. Since they were established beginning in the 1984 presidential cycle as a way to give party leaders more say in the process, superdelegates have never changed the outcome of the primary season. "The superdelgates are politicians, and politicians generally try to agree with voters and follow the will of the voters," said Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution, who was on the 1980s commission creating the superdelegates. But Kamarck - who happens to be a superdelegate supporting Clinton - says they view that voter will with more of a national than state-by-state focus.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/how-do-superdelegates-work-here-s-what-you-need-know-n554136
Yup. Should Sanders overtake HRC I wonder how many have the balls to overturn the nation's desire to see positive change.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)the Establishment candidate is by itself an influence on voters. And if it's true that Super-Delegates have yet to vote against the people's choice, why have them. The purpose as stated in you quote is "to give party leaders more say in the process." That's not democratic. The hell with the "Party Leaders".
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)They started it rigged, refused to change, when ever someone complained they would say will we have not voted yet, it does not count yet, we will support the winner, but then they still stay pledged and let the press run with the narrative.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)We have GOT to stop the incestuous relationship with what used to be the news industry, but has been managed as the entertainment and ratings industry.
THAT'S SICK, and it's a double whammy that the press is given a cookie and runs with it like little delivery boys and girls.
Mad as hell about that, too.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)They want to be on the winning team.
That was the problem with all of those Super Delegates saying they backed Hillary before the first vote was even cast in this primary.
Perception is reality.
Nevertheless, Hillary's campaign is almost a mirror-image of Bernie's campaign . . where he is on the left on all of the issues, she is on the right of nearly all of those issues.
Since the Super Delegates view the race from a national viewpoint, rather than from a state viewpoint, I have no doubt that they will shift their support to Bernie at the convention.
And he is going to the convention.
You can count on that.
LuvLoogie
(7,011 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)The people are speaking and Clinton is their choice on the democrats side.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Clinton is winning because more people voted for her. I know Sandernistas don't like to hear that, but there ya go.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)you can't ignore those among us struggling. Your support of the statu quo guarantees that the numbers of lost jobs, numbers in poverty will continue to increase. I know you don't think Goldman-Sachs gives a crap about those struggling.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)But those of you who think Bernie is going to be your savior are fooling yourselves. Bernie's plans are simply not going to be estimated...
But.... that's the crux of our argument, really. I think Bernie fans are dazzled by unrealistic promises.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)a President that is beholden to the Wealthy will insist that they, the Wealthy pay their fair share. If you've noticed Clinton doesnt even campaign on making the Wealthy pay their fair share. All of her plans require the 99% to help those among us that are struggling. She is a part of the Wealthy 1% (in fact her and Bill are in the more exclusive 0.1% club) and she has amassed her wealth from gifts from those that expect quid pro quo.
No one expects miracles from a Sanders' presidency. Electing him is just a start. I hope that he might at least stop the bleeding. Clinton won't help the health care problem, the continuous war problem, the NSA/CIA domestic spying problem, the fracking for oil profits problem, the Prison For Profits problem, the Social Security problem. I can't see how 4 years of Clinton won't see less jobs, less college students, less safety nets, etc. She favors Goldman-Sachs and that's what she told them in her speeches.
Bernie's fans are fighting the corrupt culture of Big Money in government that you apparently revere.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)n/t
morningfog
(18,115 posts)floppyboo
(2,461 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)If you repeat a lie often enough you are a Republican.
He's behind by around 213 delegates, not 250.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Stinks to high heaven.
DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)I wonder what his more recent articles are saying?
We must smash the Clinton machine: Democratic elites and the media sold out to Hillary this time, but change is coming
Oh dear me, he is pissed!
GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)It is the only explanation for the near constant MSM attacks on Sanders. They always happen when he is posing a threat.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Oh she sees it alright, but her response isn't all that credible.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)I'll play tit-for-tat with you
Let me look into this ...
JI7
(89,252 posts)You should delete this
Thanks, that was fucked up, I feel dirty now.
JI7
(89,252 posts)I felt a little sick to my stomach when I realized...
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Last edited Mon Apr 11, 2016, 03:58 PM - Edit history (1)
The only reason someone picks now to be on the dark horse candidate is extreme sour grapes.
JanetLovesObama
(548 posts)just started being vetted a month ago. His true colors are being shown. And if he ever releases his taxes no telling what we'll see.
Why is he going to Rome when he "doesn't have time to do his taxes"??????? Stinks to high heaven.
CentralCoaster
(1,163 posts)OH MY GOT THAT'S FUNNY!
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Panama Papers.
And speaking of releasing, when will Clinton-Sachs release her transcripts? Although Anonymus leaked them. Really not exciting.
Simply, "I Hillary Rodham C. will never support any legislation that would regulate or otherwise bring displeasure to my good friends, the bankers. Please make my check out to Clinton Cash Fund, and have my car brought around."
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)libtodeath
(2,888 posts)desmiller
(747 posts)To the naughty list with you.
LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)10 months ago that statement was made. If that was true Sanders would have a very commanding lead.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Last edited Mon May 2, 2016, 07:13 PM - Edit history (1)
Liberals don't support:
The corruption of Big Money in government via Citizens United.
Job killing "Free Trade" agreements
Fracking for oil company profits over people's water quality.
Unregulated domestic spying and no oversight for the NSA/CIA Security State.
Drone killing of terrorist "suspects" in foreign lands (100 innocents killed for each suspect)
Prisons for Profits
American Exceptionalism as an excuse for neocon imperialism.
The use of cluster bombs near civilian areas.
Liberals do support:
Strengthening Social Security (e.g., raising the cap)
Helping college students afford college (telling them to get a job doesn't cut it).
Making major corps pay their fair share of taxes
Reducing the defense budget
Taking a hard stand against torture and indefinite detention.
The end of the militarization of our local police forces.
The legalization of marijuana especially for medical use. Denying medical marijuana to those that are suffering is cruel.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)And how I would characterize the poster's commentary.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)Sort of like being a Dennis Kucinich, or Rand Paul.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)that honest Democrats are fighting. Those that revere wealth over humans are not liberals and not Democrats.
LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)when he has trouble working with others?
eridani
(51,907 posts)Marr
(20,317 posts)Yes, Hillary will 'work with Republicans'. She'll do it to pass pro-Wall Street/anti-labor/pro-war legislation.
Hooray?
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)when she was a Senator, and that is ALL that she did. (besides voting on the wrong side on major issues)
Bernie worked with John McCain (and that would be "across the isle" to pass a very important major VA bill for Veterans. And McCain complemented him for it.
Not quite as earth shaking as renaming a post office, but you have to do what little you can.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)parties?
.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)and claiming he might win ONE state.
My, how times have changed, and at that rate of change....well you should be smart enough to figure that out.
The Clinton Establishment was WAY WRONG 10 months ago,
and now they are STILL wrong, but at least smart enough to panic.
JI7
(89,252 posts)yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)the governor's race in Connecticut in 1994 to John Rowland. Curry left after the 1996 reelection of Bill Clinton, not a particularly good indication of a valued adviser. Curry ran against Rowland again in 2002 and lost by 12 points, even though Rowland was involved up to his neck in a contract bidding scandal which caused him to resign in 2004 and landed him in Federal prison. Not sure we should put a lot of stock in Curry's national political bona fides based on 2 years in the Bill Clinton administration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Curry_%28politician%29
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)Believe me, Bill Curry has written a LOT dumber stuff for Salon since then.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Mike Nelson
(9,959 posts)...if he wins NY by a landslide - say 80% to 20%. Wisconsin and Wyoming were losses, in reality; he needed huge margins in those states and did not get them.
artislife
(9,497 posts)and it being exposed will help crash the Democratic party.
Both parties have forgotten that they were about their voters, not their special interests.
Good riddance.
Mike Nelson
(9,959 posts)..but this has been the way they do it for years and people tend to forget - until the next election. I has, over the years become more Democratic. Each state has different rules, too, which is a sure sign of inequality. Decades ago, the party elders always picked the nominees at the conventions.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Wyoming only has 14 delegates, each one is worth a certain percentage. Sanders would have to have hit I believe 58% in order to hit the next "tier" and get that 8th delegate.
Math isn't corruption, kids.
artislife
(9,497 posts)That sounds more like your side.
gawd, hillarians are insufferable
eridani
(51,907 posts)That means that Sanders will get from 8 to 12 delegates.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Unfortunately, most state election laws compel the delegate to vote for the person who actually won.
You aren't going to win an election by theft, bro.
artislife
(9,497 posts)I mean if there is a check of the physical person at the primary why not the mailed in forms?
But i get you and your supporters.
And I saw first hand at my caucus when the lead ( a h supporter) whispered to the secretary (a h supporter) that one of the h supporters flipped. We were watching...and as we should have. That one flip changed the delegate count.
Scummy and slimy and dirty tricks have been playing out and I really think this is also the death knell for the Democratic Party.
eridani
(51,907 posts)--at that level. WY will turn out like NV and MO.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Camp Sanders is pretty poor with election fine print.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Clinton won 36 of Missouri's pledged delegates, Sanders won 35. Once we'r at the convention, 36 will cast their vote for Hillary, 35 for Sanders (if he is still in it by then).
eridani
(51,907 posts)On March 15, Hillary Clinton narrowly won the Missouri primary with 49.6% of the vote, compared to Bernie Sanders 49.4% share of the vote. Since delegates are allocated proportionally, it was projected that Hillary Clinton would win 36 of the 71 pledged delegates, and Sanders would walk away with the other 35 delegates.
But the delegate selection process is not that simple. The voters in the primary do not directly elect the 71 national convention delegates as one might think. Instead, delegates from each candidate who are selected proportionally attend Mass Meetings on April 7 at the different wards, townships and counties across the state. The purpose of these meetings is to select District-Level delegates who would later elect the 71 pledged delegates to represent the candidates in the Democratic National Convention.
This process made sense more than half a century ago when communications were limited and technology nonexistent.
However, just like in Nevada, many Hillary Clinton delegates didnt show up to these meetings and Bernie Sanders was able to snatch more District-Level delegates than what he was supposed to have. Reported delegate allocation by the Missouri Democratic Party shows that 681 delegates (51.4%) were allocated to Bernie Sanders and 644 delegates (48.6%) allocated for Hillary Clinton.
http://progressivearmy.com/2016/04/10/bernie-sanders-wins-missouri-after-all/
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Sanders is not getting any more delegates than what he earned by the popular vote. There's nothing else to the story, bro.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)There is no possibility of Sanders earning more delegate votes tan he won from the election.
eridani
(51,907 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)It's ending and people are leaving.
snooper2
(30,151 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)Then again, I see that this is dated June 22, 2015.
How is it relevant today?
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)Both IMO.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)So that said, she's not alone!
http://www.liberalamerica.org/2015/12/05/they-havent-been-wrong-our-next-president-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/
Beacool
(30,250 posts)A lot has happened since last December.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)People are pissed and he sounded ticked about fracking today, naming names like Chevron and Halliburton.
krawhitham
(4,644 posts)Henhouse
(646 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)just because it predicts a Sanders victory??!
Beacool
(30,250 posts)Post after post that are not reality based. It's embarrassing how disconnected some people are from what is happening in this election. One thing is to be enthusiastic and hope that one's preferred candidate wins. Another thing totally different is to seem to live in an alternate world where Sanders is ahead, and like some OP stated, "Clinton's campaign is collapsing".
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Califonz
(465 posts)... how few POC would vote for an old Jewish white guy who spent much of his adult life fighting for their interests.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)PATRICK
(12,228 posts)those are ideas. How this is actually playing out is more brutally simple than voter perception mood or even fervor. Simply the organization is churning out the Made Deal like sausage based on past loyalties, favors, fear of all sorts, reacting against the "Revolution" like French aristocrats. I know the complaints about rigging and fraud, but compared to the GOP they are still laughably childlike. In fact the whole power play aspect to substitute both for platform AND charisma is totally embarrassing.
Still, his point could be real if only the media would let the people get a fair picture of Sanders, the alternative. it seems without Sanders there was already a seeming slide away when Biden seemed even a misty distant option. As it is I make the same points which might look smart if we win or you can blame the people being outsmarted, asleep, etc.
The problem though extends to the fall and beyond, something way way beyond magical delegate counts and primary power plays. That actually is another issue, one the party is falling on its sword not to address- as with many other crying to heaven issues.
Response to NorthCarolina (Original post)
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brooklynite
(94,598 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Or what the Hillary supporters refer to as "personal, sexist attacks."
But simple facts and reasoning are refreshing to the mind.
Thanks
DrDan
(20,411 posts)RandySF
(58,911 posts)DebDoo
(319 posts)Politics and government".
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Response to NorthCarolina (Original post)
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