Many of us rely on polls and pundits when it comes to presidential prognostication. But your best bet for accurate and reliable political predictions, it turns out, is actually the marketplace.

Political prediction markets like PredictIt incorporate all available information — including polling data and political analysis. “The markets have really been ahead of the polling and ahead of the pundits,” says David Rothschild, who studies them for Microsoft Research. Rothschild told PBS NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman that evidence clearly shows that markets where you can bet on — or “invest in” — political outcomes are “more accurate than any collection of pundits or statistical polling averages — and extremely well calibrated.”
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