Looks like Hillary will be taking NY pretty solidly. Onward!

Need a day off today.

hrmjustin was the most mellow poster on this board prior to the primaries. I don't think he ever had a hide.

I also go out almost everyday and canvass for Hillary. That is why he complimented me.

As goes Wyoming so goes the nation said no New Yorker ever.

would unfortunately not be a game changer for Sanders. He has to win on average something like 68% of all delegates from here on in. Winning less than 65% of the very large NY haul (tremendously unlikely as it is) would be a probably insurmountable loss for someone facing almost insurmountable odds as it is.

Neither is likely.

It is expected that she would win NY.

I was beginning to think you folks were even more around the bend than previously known.

We shall see re: NY.

Gotta feeling you're gonna be disappointed though.

This primary is pretty unique.....not only is it diverse, densely populated, and closed, Bernie and Hillary have plenty of time to make their case.

I have no idea what will happen.

... and take in some touristy activities and do some sightseeing. When he's all recharged and refreshed, he can come back and try to do something about how bad his poll numbers are.

Mantenere il Bern!

I wonder if Bernie will pull out of NY like he did Texas and just concede the election?

... I think he has other plans.

Landline ONLY.
62 / 38 (Female / Male) Split (08 in NY was 45/55)

Among registered voters its 51-44 Clinton. No demographics breakdown either.

I suspect the race is 5-10% lead for Clinton at this point.

Could you please unskew the other NY polls as well:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html


Thank you in advance.


BTW, Nate Silver gives Monmouth an A - and Marist a B +:



http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

He has B+, but he says they do cell calls. This poll was only landline. It is not part of their normal methodology so that rating is useless.

If the day before the poll, the polling average is +10 Clinton, the most likely/probable outcome is going to be Clinton +10. That doesn't mean individual polls can't be incorrect or can be scrutinized.

It's interesting they haven't published the demographics. The guy who runs the polling on tv said "Bernie is 20+ up with those under 45", but "Clinton is also up 20+ with those over 45". For her to be up 14, it must mean he thinks 80%+ of the electorate is going to be 45+.

Please feel free to verify my claim.

How about Monmouth or FOX? Both use landline/cell phone frames.

Because according to their rating, Marist makes cellphone calls.

Monmouth is much more believable because they have published their methodology. They do make cell phone calls. What I found interesting from their poll was that ~60% of polled were conservative/moderate, when other exit polls this cycle has shown the opposite (more liberals than moderates). IMO part of that is their methodology for likely voter which is you must have voted in both midterm and last presidential election or have registered in 2014/later.

So essentially if your average voter is coming out to vote, than Bernie is going to lose by 12. If those who don't vote in the midterms usually come out to vote, than IMO Sanders is going to do much better. So again the name of the game is voter turnout.

Wall street Journal is paying for the poll... I don't know why they can't pop for a cellphone/landline one.

But only ones that show Bernie winning.

I.e. it includes non-registered or independents or non-likely voters who lean Democratic. That should be closer for Bernie. They're just not going to be able to vote in the primary.

This is closed primary. Either the pollster doesn't know what potential democratic electorate is (registered dems) or when they say potential democratic electorate, they mean those registered as dems and can potentially vote in the primary.

That potential electorate is those who can vote in the democratic primary, thus its Clinton 50-43?

Otherwise he doesn't know what he is doing by including independents or non democrats in that metric.

I have only looked at the top line numbers but it is unfathomable to me that Lee Miringoff doesn't know what he is doing... He is one of the most respected pollsters out there:

There are three groups here:

Residents
Potential electorate
Likely Voters

Residents is everyone, obviously, including a few hundred non-voters.

Likely voters are confirmed active Democrats. Generally, confirmation is via registration rolls or voting history. In this case, this is the most accurate group.

Potential includes all self identified possible Democratic voters. They may say they're going to be eligible to vote but there is no history, entry on rolls or other factors to confirm this eligibility. This will include unlikely voters, independents who are self-IIDing as Democrats and first time voters who say they're eligible to vote (but may be wrong). Combined, all of these make up the potential pool.

The LV number is reported for a reason.

and New York's not havin any of it!!!

Anyway, awesome news DSB! Poll after poll gives her a double digit edge in NY!