Fractured Republican Party Could Go the Way of the Whigs
Will the Republican Party as we know it today disintegrate and coalesce anew with a different emphasis - or even a different name? There's certainly precedent for this occurring. The Republican Party, you may recall, didn't even exist until shortly before the Civil War. Abraham Lincoln served in Congress under an entirely different banner - that of the Whig Party.
The Whigs actually dominated presidential politics in the 1840s: Four of the five presidents in the period from 1841 to 1853 were Whigs. But by the mid-1850s, the party had ceased to function as a viable entity, and some of its former members re-emerged under the banner of the nascent Republican Party.
Why did the Whigs fall apart?
They were, like the modern Republicans, an uneasy coalition of pro-business individuals on the one hand and religious revivalists on the other. Then, as now, the division was geographical and social: Northern business interests on the one hand and the Southern, pro-slavery group on the other. Meanwhile, two of its most influential leaders - Henry Clay and Daniel Webster - both died, leaving a void that, in the end, no one could effectively fill. (Clay had served as senator, secretary of state and Speaker of the House; Webster had served in the Senate and also as secretary of state.) With the compromise of 1850, the party split along pro- and anti-slavery lines and was, like Humpty Dumpty, irreparably broken.
If this sounds familiar, it should. Today's Republican Party finds itself divided between a pro-business faction on the one hand and religious revivalists on the other. The latter faction finds most of its strength in the South and, to some extent, the Midwest. It's also dominated by white males. As in the 1850s, the party is bogged down by social issues, in this case contraception, same-sex marriage, military service for women and gays, etc. There's nothing like the overarching issue of slavery, which was an economic as well as a social consideration. Nevertheless, the passions associated with these modern issues are rising and may soon approach those once associated with slavery.
If the minority in the socially conservative base comes to dominate the Republican Party, that party will likely cease to be a viable alternative. And when corporate interests realize it can no longer win, they'll invest their money elsewhere - either in a new party or in efforts to lobby Democrats.
If you're a Democrat, all this can be fun to watch. If you're a Republican, you should be scared to death.
Read more: http://www.theprovocation.net/2012/02/fractured-republican-party-could-go-way.html
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