2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Is Ohio so Competitive?
I'm not from Ohio, so I don't know much about the state's dynamics. Obviously, there are a lot of rural areas which lean right, but my gosh, there are several major urban areas, plus several good-sized college towns. Ohio greatly benefited from the auto industry rescue and organized labor in the state is pretty strong.
Given this, why are we not way ahead in Ohio?
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)where Obama is farther ahead there than nationally. It is not barely competitive, and it is telling that when push comes to shove, no one will say that Romney is going to actually win it.
TexasCPA
(527 posts)Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) and Franklin County (Columbus) have to outvote a lot of rural areas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2008
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)TexasCPA
(527 posts)I was focused on 100,000+.
Firebirds01
(576 posts)Cincinnati
Dayton
Cleveland
Columbus
Akron
Canton
Youngstown
Toledo
All due respect
Firebirds01
(576 posts)has several pretty big cities but they vote red as red can be when it comes to the Presidency.
Plus the Longhorns suck and so does the Big XII
JI7
(89,275 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Even the guy in your avatar, in a reelection landslide back in '96, still managed to only win Ohio by six points. That tells you everything you need to know about the state and why it's always a tough one for either candidate to win by a large margin.
Here's the margin of victory in Ohio over the last few elections:
2008: Obama +4
2004: Bush +2
2000: Bush +3
1996: Clinton +6
1992: Clinton +2
1988: Bush +11
1984: Reagan +19
1980: Reagan +10
1976: Carter +.27
Outside the 80s, Ohio has been one of the most competitive states in the country.
JiminyJominy
(340 posts)Ohio will go down as the most ungrateful state ever if they go Romney this election.
One man went to bat for the state and the other said let its main industry go Bankrupt. Not sure why this state is so close.
OldDem2012
(3,526 posts)JI7
(89,275 posts)is making it out to be.
it's not california, new york, or even pennsylvania or wisconsin.
but Obama has consistently held a lead. the lead has at times changed but even during Romney's first debate surge he didin't seem to lead in ohio.
OldDem2012
(3,526 posts)RandySF
(59,264 posts)It's leaning pretty hard toward Obama, but we have to work it to the end.
Firebirds01
(576 posts)It is 4 different states. All (generally) equal in population or economic influence.
Northeast Ohio (Cleveland Area): East coast. Urban and industrial, Blue collar. a lot of ethnic communities, great deal of diversity.
Southeast Ohio: Appalachia. Coal mines and hills and hollers. Economic depression. Social conservatism. Think west virginai sort of thing.
Northwest Ohio: Midwestern. Flat as hell. Small towns. German catholics. Field of Dreams sort of thing. Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture. Social conservative but no tolerance for Wall street/big business types. Economic democrats social conservatives
Southwest: Mix between cities, aerospace, and big business. This is where we have the most diversity among voters (not raicial diversity but who will vote for either party). Cincinnati area is very republican (but not crazy snake handler types, they are the gordon gekko types). The miami valley might as well be a surrogate of the USAF because of the base. Big mix. About 15 major colleges in the area too so education is big. really the key to winning the state. the BBC said Clark County (in this area) was the demographically perfect representation of the country.
so four different states.
Firebirds01
(576 posts)If I say we need to invest in alternative energy, northwest ohio says "yeaaaaaaaaah" because wind energy is HUGE HUGE there. But southeast ohio says "boooooo because there arent many union towns"
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)Marsala
(2,090 posts)In the past, it's leaned red, more like where Florida currently is.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)It seems more competitive because it's so essential.