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2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,714 posts) Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:17 PM Oct 2012

6

DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast-Obama 86.34% Chance Of Winning

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html

5 replies

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DeSart and Holbrook Election Forecast-Obama 86.34% Chance Of Winning (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP

Keep your eyes on Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada/Iowa ncav53 Oct 2012 #1

Thank you! K&R! hogwyld Oct 2012 #2

Their EV and popular vote projections don't line up, imo. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #3

I Noticed That DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #4

Maybe. I think there's legitimately a 50/50 shot of there being an EV/PV split this year. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #5

ncav53

(168 posts)

1. Keep your eyes on Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada/Iowa

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:26 PM

Oct 2012

Obama is already at 271 with these states he's leading in.

hogwyld

(3,436 posts)

2. Thank you! K&R!

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:38 PM

Oct 2012

Hope this stays like this for 13 more days.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

3. Their EV and popular vote projections don't line up, imo.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:42 PM

Oct 2012

If Obama wins the national popular vote, he'll pick up CO and VA as well, it would seem.

VA closely matched the national popular vote.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,714 posts)

4. I Noticed That

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:50 PM

Oct 2012

They are political science professors.

I like this professor's model. He's more bullish on Obama:

http://votamatic.org/into-the-home-stretch/#comments

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

5. Maybe. I think there's legitimately a 50/50 shot of there being an EV/PV split this year.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:59 PM

Oct 2012

Obama I would say is about 80-90% to win the electoral college, with Romney being slightly more likely to win the popular vote--OFA isn't going to turn out people in Texas or California, but rabid Obama hatred will turn the Republicans out across the country.

State polls are looking great for us, but national polls, yeesh not good news there. Looks like Romney by about .75 - 1.25%.

But, national popular vote wins the spin room, not the Oval Office.

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