The 1st seed Cleveland Cavaliers are 10.5 point favorites at home against the 8th seed Pistons this afternoon:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/


This means it's really anybody's game.


BTW, there has been absolutely ZERO movement in this poll in two weeks:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html#polls

Maybe I should visit.

The Miami Heat blew a 26 point lead against the Celtics on Wednesday night.

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400829104


There were 2,460 regular season NBA games played this season and that was the biggest blown lead. I assure you gamblers aren't calling their bookies to bet on teams that are down twenty six points at half time.

Michigan was an anomaly.

You're right, this is an alternate universe, where primaries equate to basketball games and we just close our eyes and plug our ears and go la la la, Michigan didn't count...la la la la la

in voting, the size of the crowd, and who they cheer for does make all the difference in the world.

Bernie has voter enthusiasm on his side. The polls may show who would win the election if calling them on the phone and asking "who would you vote for' was considered an official way to count votes.

In reality though you need those people to be excited enough to get off their butts and actually cast the vote.

In the limited range of people being considered in the polls, Registered Democrats, the phone call answer may well be accurate and 10% more of them support Hillary, but if only 1/2 of them are going to bother to go out and actually vote, while 75% of people called who prefer Bernie are excited enough to go out to actually vote, then the 10% polling difference is meaningless.

And before you start into how I am cheering on the hope that some people won't vote, it is quite the opposite ... I wish everyone who wanted to vote could indeed vote .... because that too would result in a Bernie win.

But either way, in the medium term it doesn't matter ... the establishment Democrats are toast even if they win the primaries and even if they win the presidency ... they are establishment, they can no longer hide that fact, and either they stop being establishment (in which case we win,) or they remain establishment and are tossed out in 2018 and 2020 (again we win.)

A Hillary 'victory' is just a band-aide on a fatal wound ... traditional media still has enough of its fading social influence to administer this round of first-aid to a seriously damaged establishment campaign ... in 2 more years that influence will be laughable .. in 4 more years it will be non-existent, and if there is one thing the Hillary Establishment camp should have leaned about social media this cycle, is that there are no establishment media there to control the narrative ... your lies are no longer turned into 'official narratives', they are just exposed as lies.

What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.

-Ecclesiastes 1

A while back there was a thread here about a morbidly obese man who tore his ACL and rather than seek surgery he just sat in his reclining chair and waited for God to heal it. He died in that chair.

I told the story to a friend of mine who is a United Church Of Christ minister and she said "that's not how it works."

Have a great rest of the day and keep the faith.

Setting aside the southern states, Bernie has consistently over performed the polling, often by large margins.

So it makes sense they would look at the polls the same.

a Bernie supporters we hope they are not. Lot's of first time voter registrations, also lot's of independents that switched to Democrat.. Are you confident that the Poll models are up to date. It's gonna be an interesting night.

A 10 point loss is a win!

Since delegates are apportioned based on congressional districts a ten point NY win will yield a 25 to 50 net delegate lead.

the national polls, I wouldn't count on parallel universes. They don't count the kids with cells. They don't count a lot of different groups. Even if its only 2-4 points between them, she loses, Mrs. Inevitability.

This race is over.

Bookmark this post. If Hillary isn't the nominee I will grind up my lap top into little bits, throw some Sriracha sauce on it, eat it, and put it all on youtube.

TRUTH...

amount, which doesn't Appear to be the case for the remaining primaries

In addition the big northeastern states are closed primaries, so it is less vulnerable to independents

Anything close to this and its pretty much game over.

And employing the same likely voter model.

We'll see what the real turnout is Tuesday!

because if that happened, she could make a solid case for Bernie exiting.

She can't make that case if the end result is within this range.

I want him in, through to the convention.

Of course, I'd rather see Bernie ahead by 20. Obviously! However, for now, it looks like New York will not be the linchpin that allows her to pressure Bernie out of the race.

Look at all this PHONY outrage manufactured. How ridiculous and transparent. A poll of your choosing shows Hillary's 10-point lead, and you work like the devil to spin it into how wicked she is for asking him to "exit", when she's never said that, and you only introduced that yourself so you can have a contrived pile-on that Clinton is going to do something bad to Bernie.

Good Lord, the phoniness of these hater screeds is reaching a crescendo of completely unreadable hooey. It was unreadable before, but it's completely out of control now. Shameful. But this is why it's so easy to dismiss the Hillary haters because of these basic logical flaws and outright falsifications and misinterpretations just to jump on the hater bandwagon.

There is no outrage. You are seeing things that aren't there.

I'm merely commenting on NY being a ten-point race.

Of course, I'd love it (and prefer) that Bernie be ahead by 20 points. However, I see her ten-point lead as something that we can work with. He could lose by 15. He could lose by 5. He could win.

Stranger things have happened. She was ahead by 10 in Michigan.

I'm simply relieved, that two days before the NY Democratic primary--that we're behind by a number that isn't horrid--and that a win for Clinton in that range--will not justify her calling for Bernie to get out.

It's an opinion. Get a hold of yourself.

generators that they are. If I told you to go drink decaf, I bet my post would be hidden. You must be exhausted rooting out yet other non-issues to have a cow about. Ridiculous.

Southwest College campaign stop. It was too crowded and we didn't get in the small venue, but while there I heard conversations all around me that were so refreshing and intelligent, all without the filters of getting posts hidden that we have to endure here. It made me realize how extreme and out-of-touch some of the haters are here!

TY again.

I'd be elated by a 10 point Hillary win in NY on Tuesday.

The following week is PA, CT, DE, MD, RI.

Most of those are big delegate number states, and Hillary is leading most by double digits.

After Tuesday, it's over for Bernie. A week on Tuesday when he loses those other delegate heavy states, if he hasn't dropped out, he's just a self-aggrandizing and selfish person who cares more about his own ego and taking money from doe-eyed believers than he cares about actually getting anything done in government.

Then again, his whole failed career shows he is a master of not getting anything done. Well, except naming post offices and such. He's really good at that.

No wonder he can't win the election with people like you keeping score for him.

but winning by 5 or so is still good enough. It increases her lead and removes another big delegate state that Bernie could have gained big.

Bernie is out of real estate at that point.

center types who can vote, the better the chance she can hold on. Let's hope they're enough registered NY Democrats who have paid enough attention to the race to recognize a Sanders victory is far better for the party in the long (and short) term.

Last edited Sun Apr 17, 2016, 02:17 PM - Edit history (1)

My family and I will all be voting for Bernie.

Only by a point, but that says something.

in particular, in counties where fracking is the number one concern for many. Teachout lost to Cuomo, but she surprised New Yorkers with her impressive wins (70 percent in several counties), where fracking has become the most important issue for many.

Bernie has come out very strongly against fracking and has done several rallies in those counties. Those rallies have been very-well attended.

Clinton's fracking stance, has been fuzzy--at best. Those upstate activists understand very well that Bernie is on their side and Clinton is not.

If Bernie could duplicate Teachout's commanding wins in those counties with high turnout (and it's highly probable that he will), this could boost his numbers immensely in NY.

But I don't agree about Clinton's stance being fuzzy. She created an entire office for promoting it as SoS.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/hillary-clinton-fracking-shale-state-department-chevron

I guess the trick is to get the average person who may not know this to understand it.

In regards to the race, if he gets upstate and the BBQ, game on!

I think she has gone to great lengths to make her stance "fuzzy."

And I agree with you, the average person may not understand the issue (or care about it as much) as others.

I see those in upstate NY has having a VERY clear understanding of her positions and her actions regarding fracking. For many New Yorkers in those areas, fracking is their number one issue.

Very cool about ZT following you on Twitter! Nice!

Is that the NBC the Wall Street Journal Marist Polll conducted April 10-13 that shows Bernie losing New York by seventeen points?

Yes it is:


http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-s-lead-new-york-grows-n556201

That, and fracking, is probably helping him there.

Michigan was an aberration.

On all your points. I ain't gonna spend time addressing each one. You're full of it.

...shit I made up.

I'd like to see him pull off an upset, of course.

A close loss for Bernie will be devastating

you, we may not. but the revolution is underway... if you win this time it's only because we ran out of time... the revolution will continue for the next 2 to 3 generations at least. The sad fact is Clinton will lose the GE..


We still have quite a few Americans yet to vote. Don't count those chickens quite yet

Bernie's Hail Mary ambush didn't move the needle.

4.4 points! That could be very good. The last big win matched the extreme margin of error I think. so she is between 1.2-18 points ahead. I like the looks of that. Many of the polls take far more Hillary voters in to account because of the age and technology bias against Bernie's side (less landlines, less likely to pick up, and younger people are discounted far more often in polls due to the likely status). Wallstreet/HRC better put out another poll, the other one has been reposted so many times the ink has faded.

So no change at all. Not good for Bernie

It's silly to even make a post saying something like this.

4.4 is high, that could man a larger gap, but it could also mean 1.2%.

Wednesday morning. Any win in NY would increase Hillary Clinton's lead among pledged delegates. For Bernie to have a chance at the nomination, he has to get rid of that lead, not watch it get larger.

Senator Sanders needs a substantial win in NY, and in the primaries that take place a week later. Any losses widen the gap in pledged delegates and make it even more difficult for Sander to have a majority of those delegates. Unless he can get a majority of pledged delegates, he will not be the nominee.

So, a 10 point win by Hillary Clinton would just make it harder than before for Bernie to catch up. Even a tie won't help him erase her lead in the pledged delegate count.

The math of this election is what it is. There's no getting around it. Bernie has to win, and win with substantial margins. That's the only path for him to become the nominee.

Our democracy is broken.

.

Sorry, but that's nonsense. We will have our primaries and the results will determine the outcome. I'll be voting for the Democratc nominee. How about you?

and banks.

Stole that one.

Hillary actually outperformed them all slightly. CBS had Bernie up 2% in Illinois and he lost by a little under 2%.

And so ends the primary season.

These kinds of posts verge on the ridiculous and end up being embarrassing. Who are they kidding?

He will just snap his fingers and we will have free everything for everybody and only the rich will pay for it so...their grip on reality is tenuous at best.

You have a point.

that show final polling numbers as compared to results?

My general impression is that in most if not all states Sanders has exceeded what was expected from polls in the actual vote.

BTW The other day you posted a factoid about fracking and I responded with more informed thoughts plus a pdf from the Congressional Research Service and you never responded nor corrected yourself.

I tend to think that Hillary Clinton will be Democratic nominee but I hope not.

Spin away. Ten points is an ass kicking.

+2 Sanders. Final result? +14 Sanders.

If same trend occurs here Sanders should eek out a win.

The effort to 'stop Trump' produced advertising that had both sides up, although the r's turnout was bigger.

Open primary and same day registration helped the last day gotv efforts push turnout.

With a closed primary in NY and questions about some voters having their affiliations changed without their involvement make comparisons pretty iffy, imo

My whole point is that polling for primaries, especially when this election is not going to look like traditional primaries, is spotty.

In terms of closed, this will be the first contested closed primary (not including those in the South). The common wisdom is that this will hurt Sanders because he does better with Independents. True, but the other factor not taken into account is there are 2x as many registered Dems as GOP. Those who already lean Dem, are registered as Dem vs in open states where registration is mean less.

Other ways WI/NY are different is NY is much more liberal electorate. More white working class voters (especially Men) are registered as Dem and can't vote for Trump. Overall what hurts him most in NY is lack of same day registration.

Bernie's little Roman escapade didn't work. Pathetic the way he had to ambush the Pope

to maintain any viable shot at the nomination, I'd say Hillary is cruising just fine.

No link, it's an email I just received.

And likely an outlier anyway.

Are you sure?

538 has it listed you can also read the poll which has the dates listed.

Here we come, Xxxxxxx. One month ago, we were down 48 points in New York. With just two days to go until the primary, we’ve cut the lead in Hillary Clinton’s home state all the way down to six.

Gravis Poll - New York Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton: 53%
Bernie Sanders: 47%

It is not a new poll in any way, shape or fashion. Or a particularly good one either.

Don't know what more to say.

It really implies that this is a new poll.

They did not run two polls in ten days.

You probably don't remember seeing it because it wasn't aggregated.

Check fivethirtyeight.com whenever you want more information about a poll result.

I don't use RCP because it's a right-wing source. 538 is good once is a while if I want a little more in-depth analysis.

There is always some variation among different pollsters, but it is significant when the same pollster gets exactly the same results.

That is called no movement at all, which isn't good news for the guy that needs a lot of movement to happen.

Go figure!

that even if she finagles the nomination, she will lose the GE.

So you can crow all you want, but what you have is not only a dishonorable person but a fatally flawed candidate who would put a Republican in the Oval Office.

Oh, cry me a river.

But I will tell you this, DemocratSinceBirth, the propensity of Hill supporters for expressions of pleasure at the thought of Bernie supporters "crying" belies a level of schadenfreude and sadism that makes me extremely glad to not be among you.

It appears to be a very low place, indeed. Too bad you've let your candidate drag you down to her level.

May we please stop with the manufactured outrage?

contempt with outrage.

I don't feel outraged.

like you, you little whippersnapper.

The NBC poll taken around the same time has Hillary up by 17.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html


And where did you hear about internal polling? It's not in the article.