2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTime Is Running Out for Bernie Sanders
It certainly feels like Bernie Sanders is winning. Judging from his soaring rhetoric, celebrity endorsements, and huge rallies, the Vermont senator lately seems like he could ride his political revolution all the way to the Democratic nomination without breaking a sweat. Of the last eight primary contests, Sanders has won seven. On Sunday, more than 28,000 people turned up to hear him speak in Brooklyn, and on Monday, a new national poll showed him virtually tied with Hillary Clinton, 48 to 50 percenta 4-point increase that puts him within the margin of error.
And yet, Sanders is well on his way to a resounding defeat. On Tuesday, he is expected to lose New York, where state law prevents independents, some of his strongest supporters, from voting in the Democratic primary. (Nothing much I can do. Its bad New York state election law, he groused on Monday.) A series of recent polls indicates that Clinton, despite a spate of bad press, is still solidly on track to secure the presidential nomination based on her commanding delegate lead.
To be fair, Sanders has beaten the odds before. In Iowa, he overcame a double-digit deficit to virtually tie with Clinton, and in Michigan, he shocked pundits by leapfrogging her 20-point lead to win the entire state. But even if he pulls off similar victories in every single state left in the race, Sanders would still trail Clinton among delegates, who are awarded proportionally, and super-delegatesparty leaders who can side with either candidate, irrespective of their states vote, and who have largely sided with Clinton. Bernie Sanders would have to win landslide after landslide starting in New York to change that math, David Axelrod, President Obamas former campaign strategist, said on CBSs Face the Nation Sunday. Hes run a splendid campaign . . . but at this point, it just looks like time is running out.
At the moment, Sanders lags Clinton by double digits in all the major upcoming states, New York included, making those landslides highly unlikely. While pointing to the Michigan model as their pathway to victory, the Sanders campaign has quietly begun dialing back expectations for Tuesday. Heres the truth: we dont have to win New York on Tuesday, but we have to pick up a lot of delegates, Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in an e-mail Sunday pointing to polling showing the candidate within 6 points of Clinton. This poll shows that if we keep fighting, we may actually have a chance to do both.
The other major reality check facing the Sanders campaign is his lack of super-delegates, the majority of whom have backed Clinton, extending her delegate lead from 244 to 682. Even if Sanders manages to win a series of landslide victoriesrather than a more likely scenario in which he merely prevents her campaign from surging aheadhell be hard-pressed to swing those uncommitted delegates over to his side. Much like Ted Cruz with Donald Trump, Sanderss only realistic shot at fighting on to the general election involves blocking Clinton from securing the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination (2,382, for the Democrats) and then persuading them to vote for him at a contested convention.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/04/bernie-sanders-new-york-primaries
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)It is really that simple.
RandySF
(58,884 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)Nope. The GOP is the convention clown car.
Our nominee is far, far ahead and she's got this.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)She doesn't 'have this', and polls say that she won't have the GE.
TMontoya
(369 posts)March 15th.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Clinton can be declared the nominee on the first ballot and that will be that.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Not for nominating another moderate republican.
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KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Clinton will have the most pledged delegates, which means that she can be declared the winner on the first ballot. Starting a riot to bully people into making Sanders the nominee is undemocratic.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)I don't think she can win without progressives - who aren't going to vote for a Wall Street boot-licker - and republicans and Independents loathe her. How exactly is she supposed to win when general when she can barely win her own nomination against the a candidate that she enjoyed every conceivable advantage over?
She's unlikeable. She's a confirmed serial liar. She's breathtakingly greedy. And she's petty and vindictive - look how she interacts with those who DARE to challenge Her Majesty out on the stump.
No thanks. The party is more important than Hillary's ego. F she wins, progressivism loses, and may not recover in our lifetimes.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)reddread
(6,896 posts)anything can happen in June.
i think its important to have more than one candidate in a primary all the way through.
dont you?
otherwise there is no primary.
is that what you want?
really?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)The less-filling/taste great alternative to the slightly more corporatist policies off the actual GOP?
I hope Goldman Sachs doesn't merge the two, since they'll own both if HRC wins the nomination.