2016 Postmortem

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts) Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:51 PM Apr 2016

What would you say is the minimum vote share HRC needs in New York to remain credible?

She has to be considered the favorite there simply because it was the state she represented in the Senate.

What would you say is the vote share she needs to reach to be seen as having made a credible showing in NY?

31 replies

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Highlight:

What would you say is the minimum vote share HRC needs in New York to remain credible? (Original Post) Ken Burch Apr 2016 OP

About 50% to stay on track with her delegates. RandySF Apr 2016 #1

Less Than What She Had in 2008? noretreatnosurrender Apr 2016 #19

The delegates she already racked up RandySF Apr 2016 #20

Because she won Texas and Florida by 2 to 1. That's why. Zynx Apr 2016 #28

Bernie needs to win by 25 points to BECOME credible. He can do it! nt onehandle Apr 2016 #2

He'll be lucky to GET 25 points, much less win by that margin. nt IamMab Apr 2016 #14

I call bullshit. You don't think she has any credibility as it is. LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #3

65% cherokeeprogressive Apr 2016 #4

46% nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #5

Less Than What She Got in 2008? noretreatnosurrender Apr 2016 #18

She won the south this year and has a huge delegate lead geek tragedy Apr 2016 #30

So you really care? Why? What are Bernie's minimums? Hummmm? KelleyD Apr 2016 #6

Bernie got 84% in his Home state so it would have to be up there. nt snagglepuss Apr 2016 #7

A state that has far fewer people than Obama got votes in VA. Zynx Apr 2016 #26

If she can't get 75%, (Bernie got 86% in Vermont), it will be very telling. CentralCoaster Apr 2016 #8

Agreed. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #15

If she wins by more than 5, Bernie is pretty well shut out in any case. Zynx Apr 2016 #27

Since it's " Bernies home State" I'd say 50% . Now....how, what's Bernies???. Nt pkdu Apr 2016 #9

60% DJ13 Apr 2016 #10

That"s right. If she fails to grab less than 60% in NY It's still game on. leveymg Apr 2016 #21

There's not very much field left to play on. Zynx Apr 2016 #25

1 vote. All she needs is a win. Skid Rogue Apr 2016 #11

More than half HassleCat Apr 2016 #12

Anything less that 128% of the vote is a failure. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #13

In the Tammany Hall era, you'd have been right. n/t. Ken Burch Apr 2016 #16

122 delegates to remain where she is eom JSup Apr 2016 #17

50+ 1 Orangepeel Apr 2016 #22

Not sure for Hillary but for her DU boosters to have any credibility she needs to take 100% Bluenorthwest Apr 2016 #23

Moving the goal posts much? Zynx Apr 2016 #24

60% Kalidurga Apr 2016 #29

The question should be, how much does BS have to win by to finally become credible? n/t SFnomad Apr 2016 #31

RandySF

(58,885 posts)

1. About 50% to stay on track with her delegates.

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:52 PM

Apr 2016

noretreatnosurrender

(1,890 posts)

19. Less Than What She Had in 2008?

Reply to RandySF (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:15 PM

Apr 2016

How would that be credible?

RandySF

(58,885 posts)

20. The delegates she already racked up

Reply to noretreatnosurrender (Reply #19)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:25 PM

Apr 2016

A lot of those maligned Southern states had previously won by Obama and Fkorida was not allowed to send delegates eight years ago. Thus, 2008 and 2016 are apples and oranges. She only has to win 50% of NY delegates.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

28. Because she won Texas and Florida by 2 to 1. That's why.

Reply to noretreatnosurrender (Reply #19)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:04 PM

Apr 2016

She doesn't need to do particularly much at this point besides prevent Bernie from gaining. There aren't that many states left after NY that provide Bernie with much room to grow.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

2. Bernie needs to win by 25 points to BECOME credible. He can do it! nt

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:54 PM

Apr 2016

IamMab

(1,359 posts)

14. He'll be lucky to GET 25 points, much less win by that margin. nt

Reply to onehandle (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:10 PM

Apr 2016

LuvLoogie

(7,010 posts)

3. I call bullshit. You don't think she has any credibility as it is.

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:55 PM

Apr 2016

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)

4. 65%

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:55 PM

Apr 2016

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

5. 46% nt

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:56 PM

Apr 2016

noretreatnosurrender

(1,890 posts)

18. Less Than What She Got in 2008?

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:14 PM

Apr 2016

How would that be credible?

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

30. She won the south this year and has a huge delegate lead

Reply to noretreatnosurrender (Reply #18)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:20 PM

Apr 2016

KelleyD

(277 posts)

6. So you really care? Why? What are Bernie's minimums? Hummmm?

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:56 PM

Apr 2016

snagglepuss

(12,704 posts)

7. Bernie got 84% in his Home state so it would have to be up there. nt

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:57 PM

Apr 2016

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

26. A state that has far fewer people than Obama got votes in VA.

Reply to snagglepuss (Reply #7)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:01 PM

Apr 2016

Sure, whatever.

CentralCoaster

(1,163 posts)

8. If she can't get 75%, (Bernie got 86% in Vermont), it will be very telling.

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:58 PM

Apr 2016

Closed primary and all.

And OBTW, Hillary and credible just can't be used in the same sentence with a straight face.

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)

15. Agreed.

Reply to CentralCoaster (Reply #8)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:10 PM

Apr 2016

And if she has a win by more than 15%, Bernie will have no path to a victory.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

27. If she wins by more than 5, Bernie is pretty well shut out in any case.

Reply to CentralCoaster (Reply #8)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:02 PM

Apr 2016

He would have to get about 60% from then on. He's not doing that. He's finished.

pkdu

(3,977 posts)

9. Since it's " Bernies home State" I'd say 50% . Now....how, what's Bernies???. Nt

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:58 PM

Apr 2016

DJ13

(23,671 posts)

10. 60%

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:00 PM

Apr 2016

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

21. That"s right. If she fails to grab less than 60% in NY It's still game on.

Reply to DJ13 (Reply #10)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:26 PM

Apr 2016

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

25. There's not very much field left to play on.

Reply to leveymg (Reply #21)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:00 PM

Apr 2016

After the 26th, it's basically just California. Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia will probably be about a push on delegates. Unless Bernie wins CA by a HUGE margin of 30 points or so, he'd be screwed at that point.

Skid Rogue

(711 posts)

11. 1 vote. All she needs is a win.

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:00 PM

Apr 2016

HassleCat

(6,409 posts)

12. More than half

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:04 PM

Apr 2016

Clinton Democrats are satisfied with getting enough delegates to stave off Sanders. They will be ecstatic if their candidate emerges from tomorrow with a big enough win to justify all the "Stick a fork in him!" catcalls that will fill the interwebs following a 60/40 victory. The Clinton campaign is uninspired, tired of fighting off an opponent they consider not worthy, resentful that they don't control Democratic voters the way they feel they should. They are looking forward to leaving Bernie behind and turning their attention to Cruz or Trump, where they will, once again, fail to learn the lesson that hubris is not effective campaigning. They're counting on us (Sandernistas) to come to their aid, so perhaps we will, by convincing voters that Hillary Clinton is not as bad as she appears.

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)

13. Anything less that 128% of the vote is a failure.

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:08 PM

Apr 2016

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)

16. In the Tammany Hall era, you'd have been right. n/t.

Reply to Buzz Clik (Reply #13)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:10 PM

Apr 2016

JSup

(740 posts)

17. 122 delegates to remain where she is eom

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:12 PM

Apr 2016

Orangepeel

(13,933 posts)

22. 50+ 1

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:38 PM

Apr 2016

If she were to lose, it would be a seriou problem, even though she'd still be ahead in delegates. But as long as she wins, she's still the front runner.

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)

23. Not sure for Hillary but for her DU boosters to have any credibility she needs to take 100%

Reply to Ken Burch (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 10:49 PM

Apr 2016

They keep claiming every Democrat is voting for Hillary and the independents who support Bernie were all too stupid to register in time. So she needs to fully sweep the State or that lot looks pretty shabby.