2016 Postmortem

kcjohn1

(751 posts) Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:03 PM Apr 2016

Tomorrow is really about Turnout

In 08 in uncontested primary during super Tuesday turnout was really low. Only 32% of Democratic voters turnout (1.8M voters out of 5.5M).

This season has seen increased turnout and 2 weeks of campaigning in NY. Polls have Sanders down ~10%. Assuming same low turnout model, 10% represents 180K voter deficit for Bernie. If 15% more voters turnout, and Bernie wins these 60/40 (Bernie does will with new voters) you basically have tie in NY.

So when Sanders says we will win if turnout is high, he is right.

13 replies

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Tomorrow is really about Turnout (Original Post) kcjohn1 Apr 2016 OP

yes if hillary doesnt cheat he will get 100% of votes cast lol nt msongs Apr 2016 #1

100% will be too suspicious. onehandle Apr 2016 #4

Not if you have been switched from Dem to unaffiliated. bkkyosemite Apr 2016 #2

Or your registration "disappeared," or your polling place moved, or... dchill Apr 2016 #3

Yep, the nature of voting in person is that the results depend on how many show up HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #5

2008 was uncontested? nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #6

Not much campaigning kcjohn1 Apr 2016 #7

Obama did not concede NY. He worked hard for every delegate. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #8

If Obama had same amount of time and resources as Bernie kcjohn1 Apr 2016 #9

He did win AA voters here. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #11

Obama won 80% of AA vote in SC kcjohn1 Apr 2016 #12

I just read an article about how a lot of counties ordered only enough ballots for 50% Tiggeroshii Apr 2016 #10

Only if he gets the courts to let all the unregistered Indies vote too. bettyellen Apr 2016 #13

msongs

(67,413 posts)

1. yes if hillary doesnt cheat he will get 100% of votes cast lol nt

Reply to kcjohn1 (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:04 PM

Apr 2016

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

4. 100% will be too suspicious.

Reply to msongs (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:11 PM

Apr 2016

'Not Hillary' Party math requires 110%!

bkkyosemite

(5,792 posts)

2. Not if you have been switched from Dem to unaffiliated.

Reply to kcjohn1 (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:05 PM

Apr 2016

dchill

(38,502 posts)

3. Or your registration "disappeared," or your polling place moved, or...

Reply to bkkyosemite (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:08 PM

Apr 2016

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)

5. Yep, the nature of voting in person is that the results depend on how many show up

Reply to kcjohn1 (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:15 PM

Apr 2016

It's such a simple concept, that during primaries is so much harder than it should be.

Thanks to all those, on all sides, who work to turn out voters.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

6. 2008 was uncontested? nt

Reply to kcjohn1 (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:15 PM

Apr 2016

kcjohn1

(751 posts)

7. Not much campaigning

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #6)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:23 PM

Apr 2016

NY Primary fell on "real" super Tuesday. 52% of all delegates were given out that day. Big states like CA, NY, IL, MA were all on the table. Obama conceded NY as it was Clinton's home and Clinton same with IL. That election basically saw them target favorable states as there 22 states voting on one day.

This is totally different as for 2 weeks there has not being any other state to vote, and all the attention being on NY.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

8. Obama did not concede NY. He worked hard for every delegate.

Reply to kcjohn1 (Reply #7)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:28 PM

Apr 2016

He almost won Brooklyn.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)

9. If Obama had same amount of time and resources as Bernie

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #8)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:38 PM

Apr 2016

During this election, IMO he easily wins in NY. He would crush in NYC with AA voters and white liberals. Brooklyn is 35% AA voters.

The issue was time and resources. I'm pretty sure he put in resources because Obama campaign was all about the delegates. Because delegates is based on congressional districts, there is huge difference between losing 10-15 points than 20 points.

My whole point is Bernie is spending significant amount of money and resources that Obama never did. I'm pretty sure Hillary is as well, which will naturally drive up turnout. Which goes back to my original point. If turnout is high, Bernie has a chance sneak out a win or keep the delegates to basically a wash.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

11. He did win AA voters here.

Reply to kcjohn1 (Reply #9)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:54 PM

Apr 2016

But he wasn't going to crack the code on other groups. Clinton was and is very strong here.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)

12. Obama won 80% of AA vote in SC

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #11)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 12:00 AM

Apr 2016

In NY he only won 60%. If he campaigned in NY like he did in SC (which he couldn't do b/c of time/resources), he easily cracks 80%.

Winning would be difficult b/c lot of upstate NY is white working class, and Clinton is sitting senator, but with campaigning he would be in the 45-52 range.

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

10. I just read an article about how a lot of counties ordered only enough ballots for 50%

Reply to kcjohn1 (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:49 PM

Apr 2016

Of registered dems to save taxpayers money

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)

13. Only if he gets the courts to let all the unregistered Indies vote too.

Reply to kcjohn1 (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 12:02 AM

Apr 2016

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