2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum27 TIMES: BERNIE SANDERS OR CAMPAIGN SAID THEY WOULD, COULD, OR MUST WIN NEW YORK PRIMARY
OK - The last couple of days I have read multiple posts about how Mr. Sanders doesn't need New York, he never said he was going to win, wasn't supposed to win . . YADA YADA YADA, so here ya go.
http://correctrecord.org/27-times-previewing-bernies-we-will-win-tuesday/
Samples from the link:
26. March 4: Tad Devine: Were gonna have to beat her in some decisive battleground states. Big states, like probably New York.
23. March 8: Tad Devine pointed to New York as a big showdown where Sanders has got to beat her. Sanders senior strategist Tad Devine did not dispute Mooks claims that they need big wins to survive. We know weve got to beat her in some big showdowns, he said, pointing to New York, where Clinton served as senator for eight years, as a prime target. Its his home state, too, Devine told POLITICO on Tuesday. When we go to a place and spend ten days campaigning there, its going to be big.
20. March 16: Tad Devine: We just have to win some major showdowns, like in New York.
16. March 31: Bernie Sanders said he would have a lead in New York by Election Day. BLANCA ROSA VILCHEZ: We began our interview with Sen. Bernie Sanders with the polls that show him losing in NY and winning in WI. BERNIE SANDERS: We are closing the gap and there were polls that had us 30pts down, were 12 pts down now and I think by Election Day well be ahead.
More at the link above
KPN
(15,646 posts)Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Why is this supposed to be a big deal?
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)but I digress. Allow me to assist.
* Mr. Sanders & his campaign billed NY as a "have to" win state, as outlined in the post.
* Mr. Sanders & his campaign have since strapped a couple of jet engines to the goalposts. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511767355
But in reality (getting back to that whole pesky "math" thing) - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/ he was correct at the outset. He really does have to win it.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Still don't understand why typical campaign rah! rah! language is all of the sudden being parsed to the nth degree.
Issue avoidance syndrome?
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)and that percentage will increase by a non-trivial amount within 24 hours.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)On tuesday, she had 54% of pledged delegates, Bernie had 46%. 8% difference, with 40% yet to vote.
Now, she has lost a few since then, and Bernie gained a few, so how is that now 14%??
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)It's not that hard.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)That spread will increase in less than 24 hours.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)8% sounds much better than 200. You mentioned "issue avoidance"?
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Not that there's anything wrong with that
jmg257
(11,996 posts)Impedimentus
(898 posts)How is this post going to affect your, or anyone else's life? What is the particular significance of the numbers 26, 23, 20 and 16 - are they perhaps related to the phases of Venus?
Thank you.
FEEL THE BERN - 2016
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)of the month-old bananas I found in the back of my refrigerator.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)and now basic food storage methods.
SamKnause
(13,107 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)he's already a failed candidate.
He is over 200 pledged delegates down. MUCH more when you count supers.
His deficit will only get worse later today. Unless he wins by at LEAST 10 points, he's screwed.
And the reality is he's going to lose NY. Probably by a lot more than 10 points.
RIP Sanders Campaign.
JudyM
(29,250 posts)Snotcicles
(9,089 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)Are you talking about the 194 number that has already been debunked?
Oh the iron knee!
djean111
(14,255 posts)right? Nope.
Before you start quoting a candidate who is running for office and would like to win in ALL the states, let me remind you that Hillary, on a constant and regular basis, says things many many times. And then says the opposite. On big and really important and life-affecting stuff.
Corporate666
(587 posts)I'd say winning NY is life affecting stuff for his campaign. Tomorrow 15% of all remaining delegates will be won or lost. If his last 7 wins in small states with low delegate counts were indicative of a shift in voter support, then he will win NY tomorrow.
If he does not win NY today, then the past 7 races were just coincidence that 7 Sanders-favorable contests happened together.
More importantly, it's not just about whether there's been a nationwide shift in voter support, it's about the delegates. He's pretty much out of time and MUST win NY today Not just win, but win by a big margin... 12 points... to be on track to where he needs to be.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Hillary needs to win big.
It is Hillary who came into this with a 90+ to almost nothing advantage.
It is Hillary who came into this with support from the DLC and all Dems in hock to the DLC, which is a shitload of Dems.
The Clintons bought up "the establishment $"when she and her husband took in those $200million, when their Foundation took in $2billion. No other candidate in history has been so brazen.
This is black and white.
delrem
(9,688 posts)You guys, I mean you, dispersing David Brock's PAC talking points, are very impressive.
You're like an energy bunny transformed into a roomba, set on its way by citizens united to do the work of idiots.
questionseverything
(9,655 posts)she is already illegally "borrowing" from down ticket money
In a letter to the DNC, the Sanders campaign describes how Clinton may be commingling funds between her joint fundraising committee with the DNCs Hillary Victory Fund (HVF) and her campaign fund Hillary For America (HFA) by having HVA subsidize and even make impermissible in-kind contributions to HFA directly.
The letter points out that $15 million was used from the HVF for direct mail and online solicitations solely for Clinton, meaning the small donor return would only benefit one campaign and not be disbursed amongst the committee. The letter further states that the HVF is paying Clinton campaign staffers on an over reimbursement basis, allowing the committee to inject large sums of money into her campaign at any given time.
A recent filing with Federal Elections Committee cited that over 9 million dollars was given to HFA by HVF while less than 2 million was disbursed to the other committee members.
////////
24 million bucks she used that was supposed to be for downrace tickets
robbedvoter
(28,290 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)So that means that it's divisible by 9!
It's magic!
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)...to get out and vote!
I love it!
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)...as a candidate right from the start.
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)That's the terrible beauty of math. It doesn't care if you "believe."
jmg257
(11,996 posts)That goes 9 innings, of course.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)See how easy it is to play your game? Just go listen to her debate statements. Each one became more restrictive until she added the Sanders tax return caveat.
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)I'll throw it again, now, see if you can go get the ball!
"In October, as they gathered at a hotel outside Las Vegas to prepare for the first Democratic debate, Mr. Sanderss advisers urged him to challenge Mrs. Clinton over accepting $675,000 from Goldman Sachs for delivering three speeches, according to two Sanders advisers. They thought the speaking fees meshed with the senators message about Wall Street excess and a rigged America. But Mr. Sanders, hunched over a U-shaped conference table, rejected it as a personal attack on Mrs. Clintons income the sort of character assault he has long opposed. She has the right to make money, he offered."
Taken from Bernie's "autopsy." http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html?
floriduck
(2,262 posts)So, then you scramble to find a Hillary endorsed paper for more dirt. You try changing rules midstream. Your original post was about 27 times Bernie discussed the NY primary. Now your on to Bernie's original thoughts on her speech money. Sounds like a bipolar issue.
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)The fact that you don't like facts because they are published with sources not approved by the glorious leader of your "revolution" does, unfortunately for you, not stop them from being facts. They are direct quotes from Sanders and the campaign.
You are the one who trotted off subject with the speeches. Turns out Sanders is the one of two minds on the issue. Not convenient but still; factual. Nice of you to trivialize mental illness though. That's awesome.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Reading your "all over the board" responses concerns me. You started with one topic then responded with something totally different. If you honestly can't see that, I feel really sad for you. But I just want you to get help.
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)The "one topic" I responded to in this sub-thread was your assertion (not backed up with links or evidence) concerning the speeches.
I responded on the subject of speeches with links and more direct quotes.
You then poo-poo'd the information because the sources are not revolution approved and then trivialized mental illness -and now you're doubling down with obviously feigned concern.
It's called a hole, and you should put the shovel down now.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)We do need you to send us another $27.00
So we can continue to fight and not win
in PA and MD.
apnu
(8,756 posts)This isn't about being passionate for one candidate or another, this is about the numbers and the game that Bernie signed up for. In order to win the Democratic Primary, he must land big in the closed primary states. He must convince Democrats that he's the man who best represents their interests. He must convince them that his policy goals and positions are also their policy goals and positions.
Simply being the cool, hip, outsider sticking it to the "man" won't do it. This is the game he volunteered for. These are the rules he accepted by coming over to the Democratic Party. If he wants the tools and toys the Democrats have, he has to earn that right by appealing to Democrats that he's the man for the job.
It doesn't matter about corruption in the party. It doesn't matter about name recognition and old habits dying hard. All of that was part of the package Bernie accepted when he joined the party. He has to get party Democrats behind him and not Hillary. That window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Pity, because I'd like to see a progressive run in the GE for a change.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)that many of his supporters seem to think he is as pure as the driven snow and take standard campaign spin as gospel.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Reality will smack him in the face soon, like 9 hours from now.