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Recursion

(56,582 posts)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:35 AM Apr 2016

So... let's talk about NY delegate selection rules...

https://www.scribd.com/doc/299194612/NewYorkDemocratic-2016DelegateSelectionPlan-11-18-15

New York will send 227 non-super delegates (and 19 alternates), as well as 44 super delegates.

The super delegates are:
The 22 DNC members from New York
The 19 Congressional members from New York
The governor of New York and
2 distinguished party leaders (selected at the state convention)

The pledged delegates are selected as follows:
148 of them are elected at the congressional district level (see below)
30 party leaders will be pledged delegates elected at the state convention ("pledged supers", as it were)
49 "normal" at-large pledged delegates will be elected at the state convention

The 79 statewide delegates will be pledged according to the popular vote percentage in the state.

The 148 district-elected delegates will be allocated and pledged as follows:

Each congressional district will be given between 4 and 6 delegates, to wit:

CD 1 5 (3 M, 2 F)
CD 2 5 (2 M, 3 F)
CD 3 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 4 5 (3 M, 2, F)
CD 5 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 6 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 7 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 8 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 9 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 10 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 11 5 (3 M, 2 F)
CD 12 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 13 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 14 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 15 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 16 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 17 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 18 5 (2 M, 3 F)
CD 19 4 (2 M, 2, F)
CD 20 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 21 4 (2 M, 2 F)
CD 22 4 (2 M, 2, F)
CD 23 5 (3 M, 2 F)
CD 24 5 (2 M, 3, F)
CD 25 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 26 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 27 5 (2 M, 3 F)

A Presidential candidate who receives less than 15% of the vote in a given district will receive no delegates from that district (and this will probably happen to Clinton in some upstate districts). Assuming both candidates top 15% in a district, the state party chair is responsible for calculating the appropriate delegate allocation based on the returns in that district (expect some furious screaming about this).

One odd result here is that Sanders could well lose the popular vote statewide but come out with a few more delegates than Clinton.

EDIT: as jfern points out, the state party's own rules use inconsistent numbers; I'm just going with what's written here...
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jfern

(5,204 posts)
2. NY has 247 pledged delegates, and I don't think anyone talks about the actual calculation
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:51 AM
Apr 2016

Sometimes the media makes an incorrect calculation. Everyone assumed that Bernie failed viability in Mississippi's 3rd congressional district, but it recently came out that he got a delegate there.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
5. Oddly the party rules posted have self-contradictory numbers
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:55 AM
Apr 2016

It says at different places (even within the same sentence) 247, 227, and 233; I went with 227 because that's the only thing that 148, 30, and 49 add up to.

e.g.,

In accord with the Party Call, the Delegation shall consist of two hundred and seventy-seven (271) delegates and nineteen (19) alternates. Of the Delegation, two hundred thirty-three (227) delegates and all alternates shall be pledged to a Presidential Candidate. The remainder of the Delegation shall be unpledged delegates.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
7. It's definitely 247. I don't know why there are different numbers
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:02 AM
Apr 2016

There are 84 based on statewide (divided into 30 pledged PLEO, and 54 at large), and 163 based upon the congressional districts.

CD3 for example has 7, and you only have 6.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
8. Maybe they just didn't update it from 2008 (but it says 2016 at the top)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:03 AM
Apr 2016

At any rate the logic is the same even if the numbers are different.

RandySF

(58,884 posts)
4. They are running 50/50 upstate
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:52 AM
Apr 2016

Remember, this is a closed primary. All those anti-Hillary Republicans and "independents" have to either vote in the Republican primary or stay home. With Hillary carrying about 60% in the city and suburbs, there is no plausible scenario in which Bernie comes out of tomorrow night with more than Hillary.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
6. 21st district will be a big, big struggle for her
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:57 AM
Apr 2016

"upstate" is big. She'll do great in Buffalo, for instance, and less great in Plattsburgh.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
12. More likely he will lose delegates disproportionate to the margin
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 08:00 AM
Apr 2016

They'll split 3-3 in just about all the upstate districts. She's going to crush it in the city.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
13. Could be. My prediction is what it is though
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 08:03 AM
Apr 2016

I think he's going to underperform (pretty remarkably) in the city and overperform upstate east of the lakes.

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