2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo... let's talk about NY delegate selection rules...
https://www.scribd.com/doc/299194612/NewYorkDemocratic-2016DelegateSelectionPlan-11-18-15New York will send 227 non-super delegates (and 19 alternates), as well as 44 super delegates.
The super delegates are:
The 22 DNC members from New York
The 19 Congressional members from New York
The governor of New York and
2 distinguished party leaders (selected at the state convention)
The pledged delegates are selected as follows:
148 of them are elected at the congressional district level (see below)
30 party leaders will be pledged delegates elected at the state convention ("pledged supers", as it were)
49 "normal" at-large pledged delegates will be elected at the state convention
The 79 statewide delegates will be pledged according to the popular vote percentage in the state.
The 148 district-elected delegates will be allocated and pledged as follows:
Each congressional district will be given between 4 and 6 delegates, to wit:
CD 1 5 (3 M, 2 F)
CD 2 5 (2 M, 3 F)
CD 3 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 4 5 (3 M, 2, F)
CD 5 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 6 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 7 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 8 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 9 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 10 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 11 5 (3 M, 2 F)
CD 12 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 13 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 14 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 15 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 16 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 17 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 18 5 (2 M, 3 F)
CD 19 4 (2 M, 2, F)
CD 20 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 21 4 (2 M, 2 F)
CD 22 4 (2 M, 2, F)
CD 23 5 (3 M, 2 F)
CD 24 5 (2 M, 3, F)
CD 25 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 26 6 (3 M, 3, F)
CD 27 5 (2 M, 3 F)
A Presidential candidate who receives less than 15% of the vote in a given district will receive no delegates from that district (and this will probably happen to Clinton in some upstate districts). Assuming both candidates top 15% in a district, the state party chair is responsible for calculating the appropriate delegate allocation based on the returns in that district (expect some furious screaming about this).
One odd result here is that Sanders could well lose the popular vote statewide but come out with a few more delegates than Clinton.
EDIT: as jfern points out, the state party's own rules use inconsistent numbers; I'm just going with what's written here...
k8conant
(3,030 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)Sometimes the media makes an incorrect calculation. Everyone assumed that Bernie failed viability in Mississippi's 3rd congressional district, but it recently came out that he got a delegate there.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)It says at different places (even within the same sentence) 247, 227, and 233; I went with 227 because that's the only thing that 148, 30, and 49 add up to.
e.g.,
jfern
(5,204 posts)There are 84 based on statewide (divided into 30 pledged PLEO, and 54 at large), and 163 based upon the congressional districts.
CD3 for example has 7, and you only have 6.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)At any rate the logic is the same even if the numbers are different.
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)RandySF
(58,884 posts)Remember, this is a closed primary. All those anti-Hillary Republicans and "independents" have to either vote in the Republican primary or stay home. With Hillary carrying about 60% in the city and suburbs, there is no plausible scenario in which Bernie comes out of tomorrow night with more than Hillary.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)"upstate" is big. She'll do great in Buffalo, for instance, and less great in Plattsburgh.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)They'll split 3-3 in just about all the upstate districts. She's going to crush it in the city.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I think he's going to underperform (pretty remarkably) in the city and overperform upstate east of the lakes.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Total pledged for state is 247, 84 statewide and 161 districts.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110799464