2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI am not a fan of Tyler Perdigo's analyses but I know he has fans here.* His NY Prediction:
A few weeks ago, I posted an outlook for all of the April Democratic primaries. This outlook included my initial estimate for the New York primary, showing Bernie Sanders at 38.8% in the Empire State. We are all aware that both candidates have been campaigning relentlessly in New York, and for that reason I didnt believe that the needle would really move much from the initial estimate. This assumption of mine is based on the concept of dynamic equilibrium that I learned about in my Political Science senior seminar during my undergrad, from a book called The Gamble that covered the 2012 general election. The idea is that, if both candidates are campaigning with approximately the same vigor and intensity in a state, they will both likely get about the same amount of media coverage there, capture the same number of votes in that time frame, etc. Its a useful way to think about elections. Anyways, it does appear that Hillary Clinton has lost a very small amount of ground compared to my original estimate. Here are my final numbers for New York:
https://tylerpedigo.com/2016/04/18/final-projection-new-york-democratic-primary/
* http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511648217
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)And he did nail Michigan and Wisconsin. I assign it to more to serendipity and happenstance though.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)Are that when they are on, they are impressive, but when they are wrong, they are really wrong. And he's been wrong as often as he's been right, which is about as good as tossing a coin. There are more to elections than mathematical models....
https://tylerpedigo.com/2016/03/22/final-democratic-primary-projections-arizona-idaho-utah/
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)'serve' and characterize as a legion of 'followers'? You need to get a grip on singular vs plural.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I make an innocuous post and you insult me. You don't like to be insulted and neither do I. I humbly request you peer into your conscience, heed your better angels, and treat others with the respect you expect and demand for yourself.
Thank you in advance.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Tyler Pedigo? Not familiar and his prediction is a bit outlandish.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)My comments were directed to his analyses.
Who is Mr. Perdigo?
Among other things he is a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University who builds political prediction models:
https://tylerpedigo.com/about/