2016 Postmortem

Blue_Adept

(6,399 posts) Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:17 AM Apr 2016

2008 vs 2016 New York Primary

I'll be looking forward to seeing what the comparison is in terms of voter participation. I find it disingenuous to talk about 2014 in terms of primary participation because that's just apples/oranges.

For those curious as to how 2008 shook out, which was down to Obama and Clinton:

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Democratic_primary,_2008

6 replies

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2008 vs 2016 New York Primary (Original Post) Blue_Adept Apr 2016 OP

I suspect the result today will be very close to those numbers from 2008. DCBob Apr 2016 #1

I'd hazard a 55/45 total end result myself. Blue_Adept Apr 2016 #3

That's why I think the polls are underestimating the margin. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #2

Yup, a lot more variables at play here Blue_Adept Apr 2016 #4

It will certainly be interesting to see how turn out today compares to 2008. LonePirate Apr 2016 #5

We'll see. longship Apr 2016 #6

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

1. I suspect the result today will be very close to those numbers from 2008.

Reply to Blue_Adept (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:18 AM

Apr 2016

Blue_Adept

(6,399 posts)

3. I'd hazard a 55/45 total end result myself.

Reply to DCBob (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:21 AM

Apr 2016

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

2. That's why I think the polls are underestimating the margin.

Reply to Blue_Adept (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:21 AM

Apr 2016

Have difficulty seeing where Sanders significantly improves on Obama's #s, considering the numbers in African-American areas will reverse from 2008.

Blue_Adept

(6,399 posts)

4. Yup, a lot more variables at play here

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:22 AM

Apr 2016

LonePirate

(13,424 posts)

5. It will certainly be interesting to see how turn out today compares to 2008.

Reply to Blue_Adept (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:34 AM

Apr 2016

longship

(40,416 posts)

6. We'll see.

Reply to Blue_Adept (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:39 AM

Apr 2016

Post hoc reasoning has no place in any argument. The 2008 NY primary results says absolutely nothing about its predictive value for the 2016 results.

It's worthless.

We'll see what happens this evening. It looks fairly close at this point.

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