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MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:30 PM Apr 2016

If Bernie Sanders only loses by a single digit margin,

apparently he will have the MOMENTUM moving into next week's primaries. That's what I'm reading, anyhow.

Now, I'm not quite clear on why losing gives the loser momentum, though. If he loses, Hillary increases her pledged delegate lead. If he loses, he'll get fewer popular votes, as well.

But wait...Can this momentum thing work in reverse? Will the momentum he gets from losing be momentum toward losing again in PA, MD, CT, DE and elsewhere? That's the only momentum I can see coming from a loss. Once he starts going backword, inertia will make it hard to stop that backwards movement. At least that's how I understand the physics of the thing.

I'm I incorrect? Have I forgotten the laws of physics? Is my math backwards? Someone please tell me if I have this wrong.

This election math is hard.

71 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If Bernie Sanders only loses by a single digit margin, (Original Post) MineralMan Apr 2016 OP
Rubiomentum nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #1
But, wait...Rubio dropped out of the race. MineralMan Apr 2016 #3
Rubio outlasted him, more energy nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #7
So, momentum made Jeb Bush the first loser, and Rubio MineralMan Apr 2016 #22
Rubio wasn't the second loser, he was the 4th place winner nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #24
But what about the "Second place is First loser" thing? MineralMan Apr 2016 #33
yuuuge participant trophy given out tonight geek tragedy Apr 2016 #44
I saw some MSNBC reporter get on the F Train yesterday. MineralMan Apr 2016 #47
HAHAHAHAHA! BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #46
He got the Brown Ribbon! MineralMan Apr 2016 #53
... BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #54
You've got to stop griffi94 Apr 2016 #6
It's really easy griffi94 Apr 2016 #2
It's about money? MineralMan Apr 2016 #8
No you're still missing it griffi94 Apr 2016 #20
He has a week to try to win in those two. Where he's been behind. Zynx Apr 2016 #51
I don't think he'll win PA or MD griffi94 Apr 2016 #55
How do you figure he doesn't need to win NY? Corporate666 Apr 2016 #60
Sorry should have added an LOL griffi94 Apr 2016 #62
lol Corporate666 Apr 2016 #69
Haha Yes it is eom griffi94 Apr 2016 #70
If my hometown rejected me I would do some serious self reflection. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #4
I doubt Bernie is capable of self-reflection. He's too pure for that. nt BreakfastClub Apr 2016 #10
Even Jesus had his doubts in the Garden Of Gethsemane. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #15
This is Hillary's 4th state wide campaign in NY Tom Rinaldo Apr 2016 #19
It is his hometown. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #27
"I'm not quite clear on why losing gives the loser momentum" left-of-center2012 Apr 2016 #5
OhhhhKaay, MineralMan Apr 2016 #11
It isn't. A loss is a loss is a loss... eom BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #14
Is that kind of like griffi94 Apr 2016 #12
Bill Clinton came in second in New Hampshire and labeled himself "The Comeback Kid" Human101948 Apr 2016 #16
This. PyaarRevolution Apr 2016 #21
It all comes down to delegates. Like in Wyoming. Sanders won Wyoming but it was a tie in terms BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #48
Is the fat lady ready to sing ... GeorgeGist Apr 2016 #9
I object to this body-shaming line of conversation in the strongest MineralMan Apr 2016 #17
Momentum or NOmentum? That's the question. But I believe his supporters believe that losing by BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #13
You're right, Hillary does get more media attention... Human101948 Apr 2016 #25
And that saying is bunk. There's a reason her unfavorable numbers are so high and why Sanders BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #31
Sheesh! And now you bring charts into this? MineralMan Apr 2016 #28
I know. I know. Guilty as charged. Crimson Hexagon does social media analytics, btw. BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #35
Well, then, maybe Bernie should have gone with the Green Party. MineralMan Apr 2016 #38
It would've made more sense but...media attention! What a way to betray one's morals just for BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #40
So what? PyaarRevolution Apr 2016 #39
Very good and salient points. Thanks, PyaarRevolution. eom BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #45
I don't quite understand the losing is winning SheenaR Apr 2016 #18
It's the "everyone's a winner" mentality. BlueCaliDem Apr 2016 #26
It's hard to be very disappointed if you end up increasing your MineralMan Apr 2016 #29
When was it ever not going up after NY.... SheenaR Apr 2016 #32
Bernie's counting on 5% delegate growth, to match his economy. CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #23
Nice to see you trying to blunt Aerows Apr 2016 #30
Well, if he wins the nomination, I'll be voting for him in November. MineralMan Apr 2016 #36
Get ready to pull that lever. Aerows Apr 2016 #57
No levers in Minnesota. We use MineralMan Apr 2016 #59
Figure of speech Aerows Apr 2016 #68
If Bernie had performed better among POC voters forjusticethunders Apr 2016 #34
Will Hillary have the necessary 2383 PLEDGED delegates coming out of NY? Nope. No winner yet. jillan Apr 2016 #37
Hmm...I'm only counting pledged delegates. MineralMan Apr 2016 #41
If she wins by one point that means she would have lost if open voting Bread and Circus Apr 2016 #42
But, see, New York has a closed primary. MineralMan Apr 2016 #43
Your condescending baby talk is noted. Have a cookie. Bread and Circus Apr 2016 #50
Thanks. Is it one of those yummy Gerber cookies? MineralMan Apr 2016 #52
BernieMath can be quite cumbersome - but it is easiest if you remember that the DrDan Apr 2016 #49
Differential Equations? MineralMan Apr 2016 #58
yeah - the freshman/sophomore math classes were the toughest DrDan Apr 2016 #66
Sanders shouldn't even count on Brooklyn RandySF Apr 2016 #56
Is that just the registered hipster Democrats in Brooklyn? MineralMan Apr 2016 #61
If he loses, instead of Momentum, Sanders gets Lessmentum. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2016 #63
Brilliant, Mr. or Ms. Sherbet. MineralMan Apr 2016 #65
It is Mr., and thanks Agnosticsherbet Apr 2016 #71
If he loses by single digit, he did better than Obama. HooptieWagon Apr 2016 #64
Do not look for logic, MM, my friend. There are only two kinds of people who are posting this stuff. Squinch Apr 2016 #67

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
3. But, wait...Rubio dropped out of the race.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:32 PM
Apr 2016

See, it's confusing again. Maybe it's Jebmentum. Like that, you mean?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
22. So, momentum made Jeb Bush the first loser, and Rubio
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:39 PM
Apr 2016

is the second loser. That seems to be an awfully fine distinction you're applying there, Mr. or Ms. Tragedy.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
33. But what about the "Second place is First loser" thing?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:46 PM
Apr 2016

"Second place gets this set of steak knives." I've heard that quote, too.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
44. yuuuge participant trophy given out tonight
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:59 PM
Apr 2016

but not for Lyin Ted, he can take the FU train outta town

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
47. I saw some MSNBC reporter get on the F Train yesterday.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:03 PM
Apr 2016

Made me chuckle just a little. The F train was the last of the lines I rode from end to end in New York. It didn't seem to go anywhere I wanted to be, but I took it once so I could say I'd been on every train. It took a long time to ride that entire route, too. I got off at both end of the line stations and looked around. I was right. Nothing there I wanted to see.

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
2. It's really easy
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:32 PM
Apr 2016

Bernie doesn't need to win NY.
He will need more money tho so he can go on and not win
in PA and MD.

Does that help.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
8. It's about money?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:34 PM
Apr 2016

So, if he loses, people will send him more money? That's like betting on a horse that is trailing the field, I'd think.

Now, you've gone and made me even more confused about this. Shame, shame!

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
20. No you're still missing it
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:38 PM
Apr 2016

It's about going on to not win in PA and MD but to round
out the series of non wins, well that's going to take money.

If Bernie can get to the convention only a few hundred pledged delegates behind
then he can not win there as well.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)
51. He has a week to try to win in those two. Where he's been behind.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:09 PM
Apr 2016

Hrm. I don't think he wins either and then he's really really done.

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
55. I don't think he'll win PA or MD
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:14 PM
Apr 2016

And that really will be the pissing on the campfire.
I really think he's already lost.

Corporate666

(587 posts)
60. How do you figure he doesn't need to win NY?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:21 PM
Apr 2016

NY represents 15% of all remaining delegates, and he's over 200 behind.

He is already down in the largest 3 out of 5 states voting next week (by double digits), so if he doesn't win NY today, he's going to be 300 down a week from now.

And a week from now, there will only be 1,000 delegates left in play. The last 2 big states are NJ and CA (which represent 70% of the remaining votes after next week). He's down big in NJ, so where is he going to make up these 300 delegates? CA?

He would be lucky to go to CA down by 300. And to pick up 300 in CA means he would need to win the state by 82% to 18% in his favor.

Is that what Sanders supporters see happening? BS winning CA by 82-18???

Corporate666

(587 posts)
69. lol
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 07:48 PM
Apr 2016

Based on the laughable nature of the.... rationalizations.... posted, it's sometimes hard to differentiate between satire and real posts

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
19. This is Hillary's 4th state wide campaign in NY
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:38 PM
Apr 2016

And that's not counting any of the times Bill ran in races here. She represented the people of NY twice in the U.S. Senate. There are very few people still left in Brooklyn who still remember Bernie from his high school days, let alone anyone anywhere else in New York.

Sure he mentions his roots here. Hillary did in Illinois also. New York is Hillary's political home state now, as Vermont is to Bernie.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
27. It is his hometown.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:43 PM
Apr 2016

I was born in NYC and lived in Orlando, Daytona Beach, Tallahassee, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Los Angeles. The first words on my obituary will be that I was born in New York City.

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
5. "I'm not quite clear on why losing gives the loser momentum"
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:33 PM
Apr 2016

Hillary's predicted to win New York by a big margin.
So if Bernie loses by only a few points, it's a HUGE win for him.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
11. OhhhhKaay,
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:35 PM
Apr 2016

Maybe I'm beginning to understand. A small loss is a big win, right? No, I'm still confused. How can a loss be a win?

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
12. Is that kind of like
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:35 PM
Apr 2016

if you're expecting to get punched really hard in the face but you end up only
getting poked in the throat a little bit, well then you're
way ahead of the game.

Is it like that?

 

Human101948

(3,457 posts)
16. Bill Clinton came in second in New Hampshire and labeled himself "The Comeback Kid"
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:37 PM
Apr 2016

And that's why Tsongas became President of the United States because the loser never gains momentum.

PyaarRevolution

(814 posts)
21. This.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:38 PM
Apr 2016

If she squeaks out a win given how much she was favored to win with how long she served as Senator that's pretty damning. This is damning with MSM predicting the big win.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
48. It all comes down to delegates. Like in Wyoming. Sanders won Wyoming but it was a tie in terms
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:05 PM
Apr 2016

of delegates, and Hillary won the super-dels of that State, bringing her win to 11 with Sanders at 7.

But he won the State by ten points, I believe.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
17. I object to this body-shaming line of conversation in the strongest
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:37 PM
Apr 2016

possible terms. What does one's weight have to do with the quality of one's voice? This is not helping me understand the NY primary at all. Please stop adding to my confusion. I'm old, you see.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
13. Momentum or NOmentum? That's the question. But I believe his supporters believe that losing by
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:35 PM
Apr 2016

whatever margin is still a win since Hillary's got the name recognition and an unfair advantage. The numbers don't bear that out, however.

I mean, let's not forget that she's gotten the most negative coverage and the least favorable coverage of all candidates, including Republicans.



 

Human101948

(3,457 posts)
25. You're right, Hillary does get more media attention...
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:42 PM
Apr 2016

As the saying goes, "I don't care what the newspapers say about me as long as they spell my name right."


BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
31. And that saying is bunk. There's a reason her unfavorable numbers are so high and why Sanders
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:46 PM
Apr 2016

supporters are repeating time-tested Republican smears - it's because they actually believe it.

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." Who coined that truism? HINT: He's not a liberal.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
28. Sheesh! And now you bring charts into this?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:43 PM
Apr 2016

Damn. I was always bad with charts. Is the green good or bad? It looks from that like Kasich will be president. He has the most green. Maybe it's the red that's good. Hillary has more of that than anyone. Is this a sliding scale. And where is the Crimson Hexagon?

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
35. I know. I know. Guilty as charged. Crimson Hexagon does social media analytics, btw.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:50 PM
Apr 2016
http://www.crimsonhexagon.com/

The green is good.

The red is bad.

And I know you're being facetious. lol

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
38. Well, then, maybe Bernie should have gone with the Green Party.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:52 PM
Apr 2016

It looks like the Blue Party isn't going his way to me.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
40. It would've made more sense but...media attention! What a way to betray one's morals just for
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:55 PM
Apr 2016

media attention.

And no. The Blue Party isn't going his way simply because he's "despised" the Blue Party since the 1980's. Did he expect Blue Party members to swoon for him now?

PyaarRevolution

(814 posts)
39. So what?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:53 PM
Apr 2016

In some ways she's had a Trump Effect with the MSM, i.e. the more they pick on her, the more some of her supporters dig in. Granted a lot of times in the past it has been not deserved. Are they giving her a harder time than the Republicans? Yes, because the Republican debates are like the UFC compared to a Karate/Judo/Aikido, etc. certified match on the Democratic side.
That being said there are some people who near worship Hillary to the point some worship Trump. I don't believe there are a majority here or elsewhere, but those that are there are rabid. I'm sure that there are Bernie fans like that too and I'm embarrassed by them.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
18. I don't quite understand the losing is winning
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:37 PM
Apr 2016

But a single digit win, in light of 1) Closed Primary, 2) Home state, 3) Her 2008 performance here 4) The diversity of NYC

I would think they would be slightly disappointed that it's this close

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
29. It's hard to be very disappointed if you end up increasing your
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:44 PM
Apr 2016

pledged delegate lead, though, I'd think.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
32. When was it ever not going up after NY....
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:46 PM
Apr 2016

Every "target" site for months gave this state to her. For the reasons I mentioned, I would think there would be concern, coupled with relief from the win

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
30. Nice to see you trying to blunt
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:45 PM
Apr 2016

his victory.

It makes me warm and fuzzy inside that even you have collected a clue that he can win this thing.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
36. Well, if he wins the nomination, I'll be voting for him in November.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:50 PM
Apr 2016

It's not looking very likely, though, somehow.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
57. Get ready to pull that lever.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:16 PM
Apr 2016

Side note: I'll be pulling it for everybody on the D ticket. We need to get some more D in Congress.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
59. No levers in Minnesota. We use
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:20 PM
Apr 2016

optically scanned paper ballots. That way, we can have a manual recount if someone claims shenanigans. It has happened twice since I moved here. It took nine months for Al Franken to be declared the winner, but every ballot was checked by hand.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
68. Figure of speech
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 05:36 PM
Apr 2016

but I must say, you folks do it right!

I wish there were paper ballots, or even better, mailed ballots everywhere.

Please do not get me started. I lived in Florida during the infamous "I voted ... I think" situation. I'm pretty sure I voted for Gore, but you just really never know.

 

forjusticethunders

(1,151 posts)
34. If Bernie had performed better among POC voters
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:48 PM
Apr 2016

getting close in New York would be a potential game changer. But he didn't for reasons discussed over and over.

Bernie is losing above all because he is getting demolished nationally among POC, and he's getting demolished nationally among black people because he valued our votes less than he valued the votes of disgruntled white male Redditors.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
41. Hmm...I'm only counting pledged delegates.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:55 PM
Apr 2016

Whoever has the majority of them will get the superdelegate vote and be the nominee. First ballot, too.

If Sanders loses today, his pledged delegate margin will go down even further. That seems pretty simple to me. Hillary Clinton already has the advantage there, and it does appear that her advantage will increase today.

See, I still can't see how a loss is a win here. Nobody has explained that. People are saying that, but not explaining it very darned well.

Bread and Circus

(9,454 posts)
42. If she wins by one point that means she would have lost if open voting
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:55 PM
Apr 2016

Were allowed.

Whereas I admit hillary will probably get the nomination, she is barely going to squeek it out. A far cry from the coronation she wanted.

With the advatages she has had any other candidate would have this wrapped up by now.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
43. But, see, New York has a closed primary.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:58 PM
Apr 2016

Some states have open primaries. That's how it all works. New York has a nice, big delegation to the convention, too.

The primary election system is what it is.

There won't be any coronation. We don't do that in this country. What there will be is an inauguration. That's how we do it here, following elections that follow the election rules.

There was never going to be a coronation. This is the USA. We have elections for our leaders.

DrDan

(20,411 posts)
49. BernieMath can be quite cumbersome - but it is easiest if you remember that the
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:07 PM
Apr 2016

Law of Conservation of BernieMomentum is a closed system, hence always a constant. External forces have no effect on BernieMomentum.

Regardless of how the votes swing, or how the supers fluctuate, the BernieBros still rationalize the election results as wins and that the resultant BernieMomentum is always in their favor.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
58. Differential Equations?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:18 PM
Apr 2016

Or just Different Equations. I never made it through the DiffEq class. So I switched from Engineering to English. I've been glad ever since.

DrDan

(20,411 posts)
66. yeah - the freshman/sophomore math classes were the toughest
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:58 PM
Apr 2016

3 semesters of calculus then diffequ. Majoring in mathematics got easier and far more fun after those classes. The good thing was many potential majors were weeded out early and had plenty of time to find another major. Never regretted a mathematics major - opened a lot of doors.

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
63. If he loses, instead of Momentum, Sanders gets Lessmentum.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 03:29 PM
Apr 2016

If the gets enough Lessmentum, he begins to accelerate to the rear.

Lessmenum - noun - acceleration in a negative direction.

Squinch

(50,950 posts)
67. Do not look for logic, MM, my friend. There are only two kinds of people who are posting this stuff.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 04:04 PM
Apr 2016

1) Ratfuckers

2) People who are... well... stupid. It's time we called it what it is. They are stupid, and their ideas are stupid, and they are unable to understand how this stuff works. And they are too stupid to know how stupid they are, so they really, really think they are right. They will never see what is in front of their faces. They are like the guys who walked out of the Japanese mountains in the 70's and asked if World War 2 was over yet.

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