2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf Bernie Sanders only loses by a single digit margin,
apparently he will have the MOMENTUM moving into next week's primaries. That's what I'm reading, anyhow.
Now, I'm not quite clear on why losing gives the loser momentum, though. If he loses, Hillary increases her pledged delegate lead. If he loses, he'll get fewer popular votes, as well.
But wait...Can this momentum thing work in reverse? Will the momentum he gets from losing be momentum toward losing again in PA, MD, CT, DE and elsewhere? That's the only momentum I can see coming from a loss. Once he starts going backword, inertia will make it hard to stop that backwards movement. At least that's how I understand the physics of the thing.
I'm I incorrect? Have I forgotten the laws of physics? Is my math backwards? Someone please tell me if I have this wrong.
This election math is hard.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)See, it's confusing again. Maybe it's Jebmentum. Like that, you mean?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)is the second loser. That seems to be an awfully fine distinction you're applying there, Mr. or Ms. Tragedy.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)"Second place gets this set of steak knives." I've heard that quote, too.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)but not for Lyin Ted, he can take the FU train outta town
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Made me chuckle just a little. The F train was the last of the lines I rode from end to end in New York. It didn't seem to go anywhere I wanted to be, but I took it once so I could say I'd been on every train. It took a long time to ride that entire route, too. I got off at both end of the line stations and looked around. I was right. Nothing there I wanted to see.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)"4th Place winner".
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)griffi94
(3,733 posts)You made me spit coffee on my computer.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)Bernie doesn't need to win NY.
He will need more money tho so he can go on and not win
in PA and MD.
Does that help.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)So, if he loses, people will send him more money? That's like betting on a horse that is trailing the field, I'd think.
Now, you've gone and made me even more confused about this. Shame, shame!
griffi94
(3,733 posts)It's about going on to not win in PA and MD but to round
out the series of non wins, well that's going to take money.
If Bernie can get to the convention only a few hundred pledged delegates behind
then he can not win there as well.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Hrm. I don't think he wins either and then he's really really done.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)And that really will be the pissing on the campfire.
I really think he's already lost.
Corporate666
(587 posts)NY represents 15% of all remaining delegates, and he's over 200 behind.
He is already down in the largest 3 out of 5 states voting next week (by double digits), so if he doesn't win NY today, he's going to be 300 down a week from now.
And a week from now, there will only be 1,000 delegates left in play. The last 2 big states are NJ and CA (which represent 70% of the remaining votes after next week). He's down big in NJ, so where is he going to make up these 300 delegates? CA?
He would be lucky to go to CA down by 300. And to pick up 300 in CA means he would need to win the state by 82% to 18% in his favor.
Is that what Sanders supporters see happening? BS winning CA by 82-18???
griffi94
(3,733 posts)I was channeling some of Bernies more enthusiastic supporters.
Based on the laughable nature of the.... rationalizations.... posted, it's sometimes hard to differentiate between satire and real posts
griffi94
(3,733 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)BreakfastClub
(765 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)And that's not counting any of the times Bill ran in races here. She represented the people of NY twice in the U.S. Senate. There are very few people still left in Brooklyn who still remember Bernie from his high school days, let alone anyone anywhere else in New York.
Sure he mentions his roots here. Hillary did in Illinois also. New York is Hillary's political home state now, as Vermont is to Bernie.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I was born in NYC and lived in Orlando, Daytona Beach, Tallahassee, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Los Angeles. The first words on my obituary will be that I was born in New York City.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Hillary's predicted to win New York by a big margin.
So if Bernie loses by only a few points, it's a HUGE win for him.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Maybe I'm beginning to understand. A small loss is a big win, right? No, I'm still confused. How can a loss be a win?
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)griffi94
(3,733 posts)if you're expecting to get punched really hard in the face but you end up only
getting poked in the throat a little bit, well then you're
way ahead of the game.
Is it like that?
Human101948
(3,457 posts)And that's why Tsongas became President of the United States because the loser never gains momentum.
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)If she squeaks out a win given how much she was favored to win with how long she served as Senator that's pretty damning. This is damning with MSM predicting the big win.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)of delegates, and Hillary won the super-dels of that State, bringing her win to 11 with Sanders at 7.
But he won the State by ten points, I believe.
GeorgeGist
(25,321 posts)if Bernie loses by a single digit margin?
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)possible terms. What does one's weight have to do with the quality of one's voice? This is not helping me understand the NY primary at all. Please stop adding to my confusion. I'm old, you see.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)whatever margin is still a win since Hillary's got the name recognition and an unfair advantage. The numbers don't bear that out, however.
I mean, let's not forget that she's gotten the most negative coverage and the least favorable coverage of all candidates, including Republicans.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)As the saying goes, "I don't care what the newspapers say about me as long as they spell my name right."
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)supporters are repeating time-tested Republican smears - it's because they actually believe it.
If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." Who coined that truism? HINT: He's not a liberal.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Damn. I was always bad with charts. Is the green good or bad? It looks from that like Kasich will be president. He has the most green. Maybe it's the red that's good. Hillary has more of that than anyone. Is this a sliding scale. And where is the Crimson Hexagon?
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)The green is good.
The red is bad.
And I know you're being facetious. lol
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)It looks like the Blue Party isn't going his way to me.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)media attention.
And no. The Blue Party isn't going his way simply because he's "despised" the Blue Party since the 1980's. Did he expect Blue Party members to swoon for him now?
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)In some ways she's had a Trump Effect with the MSM, i.e. the more they pick on her, the more some of her supporters dig in. Granted a lot of times in the past it has been not deserved. Are they giving her a harder time than the Republicans? Yes, because the Republican debates are like the UFC compared to a Karate/Judo/Aikido, etc. certified match on the Democratic side.
That being said there are some people who near worship Hillary to the point some worship Trump. I don't believe there are a majority here or elsewhere, but those that are there are rabid. I'm sure that there are Bernie fans like that too and I'm embarrassed by them.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)But a single digit win, in light of 1) Closed Primary, 2) Home state, 3) Her 2008 performance here 4) The diversity of NYC
I would think they would be slightly disappointed that it's this close
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)I don't subscribe to that.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)pledged delegate lead, though, I'd think.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Every "target" site for months gave this state to her. For the reasons I mentioned, I would think there would be concern, coupled with relief from the win
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)his victory.
It makes me warm and fuzzy inside that even you have collected a clue that he can win this thing.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)It's not looking very likely, though, somehow.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Side note: I'll be pulling it for everybody on the D ticket. We need to get some more D in Congress.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)optically scanned paper ballots. That way, we can have a manual recount if someone claims shenanigans. It has happened twice since I moved here. It took nine months for Al Franken to be declared the winner, but every ballot was checked by hand.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)but I must say, you folks do it right!
I wish there were paper ballots, or even better, mailed ballots everywhere.
Please do not get me started. I lived in Florida during the infamous "I voted ... I think" situation. I'm pretty sure I voted for Gore, but you just really never know.
forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)getting close in New York would be a potential game changer. But he didn't for reasons discussed over and over.
Bernie is losing above all because he is getting demolished nationally among POC, and he's getting demolished nationally among black people because he valued our votes less than he valued the votes of disgruntled white male Redditors.
jillan
(39,451 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Whoever has the majority of them will get the superdelegate vote and be the nominee. First ballot, too.
If Sanders loses today, his pledged delegate margin will go down even further. That seems pretty simple to me. Hillary Clinton already has the advantage there, and it does appear that her advantage will increase today.
See, I still can't see how a loss is a win here. Nobody has explained that. People are saying that, but not explaining it very darned well.
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)Were allowed.
Whereas I admit hillary will probably get the nomination, she is barely going to squeek it out. A far cry from the coronation she wanted.
With the advatages she has had any other candidate would have this wrapped up by now.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Some states have open primaries. That's how it all works. New York has a nice, big delegation to the convention, too.
The primary election system is what it is.
There won't be any coronation. We don't do that in this country. What there will be is an inauguration. That's how we do it here, following elections that follow the election rules.
There was never going to be a coronation. This is the USA. We have elections for our leaders.
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)Law of Conservation of BernieMomentum is a closed system, hence always a constant. External forces have no effect on BernieMomentum.
Regardless of how the votes swing, or how the supers fluctuate, the BernieBros still rationalize the election results as wins and that the resultant BernieMomentum is always in their favor.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Or just Different Equations. I never made it through the DiffEq class. So I switched from Engineering to English. I've been glad ever since.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)3 semesters of calculus then diffequ. Majoring in mathematics got easier and far more fun after those classes. The good thing was many potential majors were weeded out early and had plenty of time to find another major. Never regretted a mathematics major - opened a lot of doors.
RandySF
(58,884 posts)The hipsters only make up about 35% of the borough.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)I didn't know there were any there.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)If the gets enough Lessmentum, he begins to accelerate to the rear.
Lessmenum - noun - acceleration in a negative direction.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Just brilliant.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Squinch
(50,950 posts)1) Ratfuckers
2) People who are... well... stupid. It's time we called it what it is. They are stupid, and their ideas are stupid, and they are unable to understand how this stuff works. And they are too stupid to know how stupid they are, so they really, really think they are right. They will never see what is in front of their faces. They are like the guys who walked out of the Japanese mountains in the 70's and asked if World War 2 was over yet.