Here's why a Hillary win in NY ends the race.
She's up by about 200 delegates. Let's say she wins by even only 5 points. That brings her a net of 10. She's up by 210 at that point. Next week is likely to be roughly a push. I'll spot Bernie RI and CT by decent margins. I think Hillary wins PA by a tiny margin, but MD and DE by big ones. That probably gives her a net pick-up, but for the sake of argument I'll hold it flat.
So, the remaining states at that point are WV, KY, IN, MT, ND, SD, NM, NJ, OR, and CA. Most of these states don't have very many delegates aside from NJ and CA.
WV is fertile territory for Bernie due to its incredible whiteness, but it only has 29 pledged delegates. Even if he wins by 20%, he picks up just 6. KY is probably going to be close, but it is a closed primary state. For the sake of argument, I'll give that to Bernie by 5%, which nets him about 3-4. Indiana is probably a Bernie state based on how he's done in the midwest, though he did atrociously in Ohio. I'll give him a 10% win there so that's 8 delegates. MT, ND, and SD are all so small I'll handle them in one swipe. I think Bernie wins these by 15 on average due to ND being a caucus. That gets him about 10 delegates on net. So far, even with somewhat generous assumptions, I have him at 28 from these states.
Then we have NM. I think he loses that based on AZ and TX. It's also closed. Hillary by 10% there, which nets her 3. Now Bernie's at a net of 25.
OR is fertile territory for Bernie so I'll give it to him by 20. Problem is that's only a net of 12 delegates. So, going into CA and NJ, he's knocked Hillary's delegate lead down by 37.
So, that means she's at 173 from 210.
Here's the problem. NJ is definitely leaning her way. It has a large African American population and is in a general neighborhood of states that she's done well in. I think she wins it by 8%. That's a net pick up of 10 delegates. She's up to 183.
So, what does that mean for CA? CA has 475 pledged delegates up for grabs. In order to overcome Hillary's 183 delegate lead at that stage, he has to win the state by 38 percentage points. Put another way, something like a 69-31 spread. That just isn't going to happen. At the moment, it's more likely that she wins it narrowly, but I'd be willing to entertain the prospect that he wins it by 4-5 points, which just doesn't net a material number of delegates.
To add insult to injury here for Bernie, Puerto Rico is up before then with a hefty 60 delegates. Hillary probably wins down there by 20-30.
And that's why the race is basically over.
= new reply since forum marked as read
