2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI played with some numbers
Just looking at the percentages out of the states, Bernie's averaging 49% and Hillary's averaging 48%.
More interesting, however, is the fact that Bernie has won "his" states by an average of 65% and Hillary has won "her" states by an average of 63%. Blowout victories on both sides, but tight numbers all the same.
Sanders Clinton
Mississippi 16 82
Alabama 19 77
Louisiana 23 71
South Carolina 25 73
Georgia 28 71
Arkansas 29 66
Tennessee 32 66
Texas 33 65
Florida 33 64
Virginia 35 64
Illinois 38 50
Arizona 39 57
North Carolina 40 54
Ohio 42 56
Nevada 47 52
Massachusetts 48 50
Iowa 49 49
Michigan 49 48
Missouri 49 49
Oklahoma 51 41
Wyoming 55 44
Wisconsin 56 43
Nebraska 57 42
Colorado 59 40
New Hampshire 60 37
Minnesota 61 38
Maine 64 35
Kansas 67 32
Hawaii 69 30
Washington 72 27
Idaho 78 21
Utah 79 20
Alaska 81 18
Vermont 86 13
awake
(3,226 posts)In a 2 person race one or the other will win?
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)n/t
awake
(3,226 posts)All I see is a list of states and numbers also when you averaged them out the 2 candidates were close in there %, what did you expect to find out.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Clinton's wins in Texas, Ohio, Virginia and Florida alone almost entirely cancel out every state Sanders won, in terms of delegates.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)If you aggregate by margin alone the thinly populated states will have a disproportionate impact on your total.
Wyoming has fewer people than a small city, for example, so it's not meaningful to compare with Texas, for example. If you added the margin-of-victory numbers for the two together it would seem as if Bernie were strongly in front, but this wouldn't be reflected in the delegate count because that is based on population.
To be honest I think the two-senators-per-state scheme has turned out to be a bad idea and leads to widespread confusion about how elections work.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)If only every state had equal delegate representation like they do in the Senate then those averages would mean something. As it stands winning a state with very few people doesn't make much of an impact on the race even if you win it by a lot.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)Also, Bernie has won Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska. Not exactly blue bastions there.
Your argument is incorrect and you should feel a little personally diminished for having made it.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)I'm pretty sure nobody thought Utah would lean so hard for Bernie, but we'll take what we can get ...
All of those states are RED ... Controlled by GOP governments ... Obviously voters wanted it that way ...
In order to feel better about myself, I figured I would go ahead and let you go ... I'll wave Byebye from the DU dock as your boat floats away ...
Byebye ...
See? ... All better!
athena
(4,187 posts)What's much harder is to ensure that your results are not biased by your personal opinion. That takes a Ph.D. and years of experience.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)That tallies with what I've seen. Presenting the average performance by state without weighting for size is misleading.
I do agree that the wide spread is striking, though.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)but the wide spread IS striking, as is the fact that taken as an average, there's no logical reason at all why their numbers should look so similar, but they do.