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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 08:08 PM Apr 2016

David Wassermann of 538 explains a primary "knockout blow"

The answer, of course, is that there is no such thing as a “knockout blow” in the Democratic race, because the psychology of Democratic voters and most media outlets is quite detached from the reality of Clinton’s advantage in the delegate math. The Sanders campaign will likely press on until June, gradually transitioning from a competitive effort to a symbolic and cathartic one without a clear dividing line.

It’s newsworthy that Sanders appears to be gaining ground with voters even as he becomes less mathematically viable each primary. But there’s a chicken-and-egg question here: Do media outlets keep hyping up every twist and turn in the race because Democratic voters want it to end, or is Sanders benefiting from self-serving media coverage that misleadingly frames each contest as “critical?”

Either way, this decoupling and dissonance is to be expected. It’s not much different from what we witnessed in 2008, when Clinton’s campaign persisted for months after Obama built an insurmountable delegate lead. Clinton’s campaign and each relatively inconsequential primary continued to receive wall-to-wall coverage, and her lack of viability didn’t deplete her vote shares.

Sure, New York is a compelling story insofar as Clinton and Sanders can tout political and personal roots in the state. But tomorrow, the show moves on. Just don’t spoil the ending for the next set of voters.

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/

Always about the math.

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David Wassermann of 538 explains a primary "knockout blow" (Original Post) Godhumor Apr 2016 OP
Looks like I'm not the only one who follows the 538 live blog on these nights. NuclearDem Apr 2016 #1
Think about what you know about me Godhumor Apr 2016 #2
One bump before the counting starts n/t Godhumor Apr 2016 #3
He is the only candidate I will vote for PowerToThePeople Apr 2016 #4

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
2. Think about what you know about me
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 08:11 PM
Apr 2016

I have more analysis sites and my own spreadsheets open right now than can be considered healthy. #StatisticalAnalystLife

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