2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDavid Wassermann of 538 explains a primary "knockout blow"
The answer, of course, is that there is no such thing as a knockout blow in the Democratic race, because the psychology of Democratic voters and most media outlets is quite detached from the reality of Clintons advantage in the delegate math. The Sanders campaign will likely press on until June, gradually transitioning from a competitive effort to a symbolic and cathartic one without a clear dividing line.
Its newsworthy that Sanders appears to be gaining ground with voters even as he becomes less mathematically viable each primary. But theres a chicken-and-egg question here: Do media outlets keep hyping up every twist and turn in the race because Democratic voters want it to end, or is Sanders benefiting from self-serving media coverage that misleadingly frames each contest as critical?
Either way, this decoupling and dissonance is to be expected. Its not much different from what we witnessed in 2008, when Clintons campaign persisted for months after Obama built an insurmountable delegate lead. Clintons campaign and each relatively inconsequential primary continued to receive wall-to-wall coverage, and her lack of viability didnt deplete her vote shares.
Sure, New York is a compelling story insofar as Clinton and Sanders can tout political and personal roots in the state. But tomorrow, the show moves on. Just dont spoil the ending for the next set of voters.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/
Always about the math.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I have more analysis sites and my own spreadsheets open right now than can be considered healthy. #StatisticalAnalystLife
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)So, I want him to stay the course.