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2016 Postmortem

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CNN EXIT POLLS 52-48 for Hillary! (Original Post) berni_mccoy Apr 2016 OP
TYT coverage Ash_F Apr 2016 #1
TYT just said Hillary won early vote by 6, Bernie won today's vote by 5 krawhitham Apr 2016 #17
NYS doesn't HAVE an early vote... brooklynite Apr 2016 #39
Those CNN exit polls are flawed DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #44
Yes and no FBaggins Apr 2016 #45
I don't recall that absentee votes get counted in advance brooklynite Apr 2016 #47
Wasn't it reported as an exit poll? FBaggins Apr 2016 #50
LOL... are TYT high? bettyellen Apr 2016 #42
That is close enough to make it a close night. And a delegate wash. Joe the Revelator Apr 2016 #2
AHHHH!!!! nt RepubliCON-Watch Apr 2016 #3
Super!!!! And even if HRC wins by this margin or slightly more, how embarrassing for her! amborin Apr 2016 #4
I think people are pulling their hair out right about now lol! NWCorona Apr 2016 #5
Holy Buckets!!!!!!!! CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #6
The worm turned Depaysement Apr 2016 #18
he's still behind MFM008 Apr 2016 #7
Wow those grapes look... berni_mccoy Apr 2016 #9
You need to read that particular fable again. It doesn't mean what you think it does. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #14
How is it sour grapes if we have the grapes? n/t nolawarlock Apr 2016 #26
I want to expand upon this ... nolawarlock Apr 2016 #52
And delegates is delegates, SusanCalvin Apr 2016 #12
Except for it would take 247 delegates out of play. mythology Apr 2016 #16
True, but still far from insurmountable. nt SusanCalvin Apr 2016 #20
If she losses New York it's over FBaggins Apr 2016 #34
2 points dif RobertEarl Apr 2016 #8
Hell, 5-10 points is a psychological loss. pangaia Apr 2016 #37
96% reporting: Hillary Clinton 57.7% Bernie Sanders 42.3% Maru Kitteh Apr 2016 #53
Maybe to you. pangaia Apr 2016 #56
OK but Maru Kitteh Apr 2016 #57
I worked hard today and yesterday Depaysement Apr 2016 #10
I called it 5% for Hillary. Although CNN is the closest of all those polling, I may have nailed this Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #11
Linkie? tabasco Apr 2016 #27
.. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #33
Who's going to win the NY / Pittsburgh hockey series? tabasco Apr 2016 #36
Pens in 6 Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #43
Either way, if its that close, its a loss for Hillary. She can't close the deal, even in her home Joe the Revelator Apr 2016 #13
She beat Obama 57-43 in '08. HooptieWagon Apr 2016 #19
How much upstate is in these polls? GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #15
Interesting point. SusanCalvin Apr 2016 #21
That's the best they could do with all the shenanigans they pulled! Baitball Blogger Apr 2016 #22
LMAO at the exit polls RogerM Apr 2016 #25
61-38 with 15% in thus far Tarc Apr 2016 #23
Does CNN's exit poll count provisional ballots? HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #24
Hillary will win by 15+ margin RogerM Apr 2016 #29
Ja sure, whatever yer crystal ball says... HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #32
His crystal ball looks pretty damn accurate... vdogg Apr 2016 #51
Close! Rosa Luxemburg Apr 2016 #28
Within the margin of error. RoccoR5955 Apr 2016 #30
Bernie done lost that shit. nt Codeine Apr 2016 #46
Well, so far, the actual vote is not bearing that out RandySF Apr 2016 #31
The Reporting is Weird noretreatnosurrender Apr 2016 #35
Margin call at 30% RogerM Apr 2016 #38
Here's the modeling as what's "Suppose" to do beedle Apr 2016 #40
Compare beedle Apr 2016 #41
Exit polls also said that 20% of the voters identified themselves as Independents. pnwmom Apr 2016 #48
NYT noretreatnosurrender Apr 2016 #49
Oh, I love it. I LOVE IT!!!! alcibiades_mystery Apr 2016 #54
lolollllllll but at least they got the winner right ericson00 Apr 2016 #55
It would seem ... nolawarlock Apr 2016 #58

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
6. Holy Buckets!!!!!!!!
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:04 PM
Apr 2016

I am thrilled!

If these numbers hold, the difference in delegates awarded will be very minor.

Wow, she LIVES in NY and was a 2-term Senator.

I hope these numbers hold!! Of course, I want him to win--but if her win is under 5 points--it is a good day for Bernie!!!

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Depaysement

(1,835 posts)
18. The worm turned
Reply to CoffeeCat (Reply #6)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:11 PM
Apr 2016

Pretty sure some of my Caribbean brothers and sisters in the neighborhood moved to Bernie in the final days.

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Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
14. You need to read that particular fable again. It doesn't mean what you think it does.
Reply to berni_mccoy (Reply #9)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:07 PM
Apr 2016
The Fox and the Grapes


ONE hot summer’s day a Fox was strolling through an orchard till he came to a bunch of Grapes just ripening on a vine which had been trained over a lofty branch. “Just the things to quench my thirst,” quoth he. Drawing back a few paces, he took a run and a jump, and just missed the bunch. Turning round again with a One, Two, Three, he jumped up, but with no greater success. Again and again he tried after the tempting morsel, but at last had to give it up, and walked away with his nose in the air, saying: “I am sure they are sour.”
“IT IS EASY TO DESPISE WHAT YOU CANNOT GET.”

http://www.bartleby.com/17/1/31.html

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nolawarlock

(1,729 posts)
52. I want to expand upon this ...
Reply to nolawarlock (Reply #26)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 11:09 PM
Apr 2016

How is it sour grapes if we have 57.4%* of the grapes?

This win made my weekend on mute worth it.

(* Source: CNN)

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SusanCalvin

(6,592 posts)
12. And delegates is delegates,
Reply to MFM008 (Reply #7)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:06 PM
Apr 2016

and a tie would leave the pledged delegate gap the same. And far from insurmountable.

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mythology

(9,527 posts)
16. Except for it would take 247 delegates out of play.
Reply to SusanCalvin (Reply #12)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:11 PM
Apr 2016

When one is behind, losing options makes it harder to win, not easier.

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FBaggins

(26,748 posts)
34. If she losses New York it's over
Reply to MFM008 (Reply #7)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:34 PM
Apr 2016

It's beyond unlikely, but if it happens she might not win another state.

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RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
8. 2 points dif
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:04 PM
Apr 2016

Meaning if two percent changed their votes the data would be 50-50. Two points is a loss for the H camp.

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pangaia

(24,324 posts)
37. Hell, 5-10 points is a psychological loss.
Reply to RobertEarl (Reply #8)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:36 PM
Apr 2016

I live here. People shouldn't call it her 'home' state. It makes her look bad without a blowout win.
And she is an opportunistic carpetbagger...after all. Lives in one one of the most expensive counties in the US of A.

I mean, whom else lost their home state.. Rubio?




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Depaysement

(1,835 posts)
10. I worked hard today and yesterday
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:05 PM
Apr 2016

This is just great. I am so happy I'm wrong. It's close. This is great.

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Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
11. I called it 5% for Hillary. Although CNN is the closest of all those polling, I may have nailed this
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:05 PM
Apr 2016
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GeorgiaPeanuts

(2,353 posts)
15. How much upstate is in these polls?
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:08 PM
Apr 2016

They opened midday so wouldn't the exit polls skew in favor of NYC since it opened at 6am

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HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
24. Does CNN's exit poll count provisional ballots?
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:25 PM
Apr 2016

If it does, we might expect it to somewhat over-estimate Sanders vote

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noretreatnosurrender

(1,890 posts)
35. The Reporting is Weird
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:34 PM
Apr 2016

Look at the NYT website to see each areas reporting. The numbers in the 5 boroughs are coming in extremely fast. Elsewhere coming in like most other elections we've seen. Very strange. For instance Brooklyn 1215 of 1730 reporting.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

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RogerM

(150 posts)
38. Margin call at 30%
Reply to noretreatnosurrender (Reply #35)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:39 PM
Apr 2016

enchmark Politics ?@benchmarkpol 12m12 minutes ago
Making a race call: Clinton will win the 2016 New York Democratic Primary. Margin call at 30%. Clinton overperforming benchmarks EVERYWHERE.

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beedle

(1,235 posts)
40. Here's the modeling as what's "Suppose" to do
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:40 PM
Apr 2016
:large

At the time of this posting while Hillary is in the lead, Sanders is doing really good in many of her up state areas.
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pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
48. Exit polls also said that 20% of the voters identified themselves as Independents.
Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:50 PM
Apr 2016

They probably voted with provisional ballots -- that will get tossed after it is determined they aren't registered Democrats.

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