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CNN just reported that Hillary is most likely NOT (Original Post) berni_mccoy Apr 2016 OP
She won't reach 2,383 through pledged delegates if Bernie stays in. morningfog Apr 2016 #1
Why should she have to get 59% of pledged delegates? That's never been the standard. pnwmom Apr 2016 #20
The standard has not changed. She, like every other candidate, morningfog Apr 2016 #22
No she's not RoccoR5955 Apr 2016 #25
But once she has the majority of pledged delegates there won't be any reason to think pnwmom Apr 2016 #26
But but but. There is no different standard for her. morningfog Apr 2016 #29
If he does that he'll be proving that his ego is more important than anything else to him. n/t pnwmom Apr 2016 #32
She did wait until the last primary was over though. berni_mccoy Apr 2016 #31
She strongly shifted her tone long before then. She even defended him against John McCain. pnwmom Apr 2016 #33
She will have a majority of the pledged delegates Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #35
The supers have never been forced to make that decision. morningfog Apr 2016 #40
Whoever thinks that don't have their hat on right. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #39
Good - media talking heads will really call for Bernie to drop out now. polichick Apr 2016 #2
She'll be voted nominee on the first ballot Godhumor Apr 2016 #3
Keep working through th stages. CorkySt.Clair Apr 2016 #4
She is gonna get creamed in California Kalidurga Apr 2016 #5
Yet There is NO EVIDENCE of that Stallion Apr 2016 #12
Funny. She won the Hispanic vote in the most Hispanic county in NY by 40 points. pnwmom Apr 2016 #27
Not a chance. Cali is very diverse. Admit it. Bernie does best in mostly all-white states. brush Apr 2016 #28
Bernie is not ahead in California Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #38
terrific!!!!!! contested convention (if she's not indicted first) amborin Apr 2016 #6
No Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #43
She trounced him by voter suppression and 1% media corruption. Zira Apr 2016 #47
So, NOW the corporate media is to be believed? ... 1StrongBlackMan Apr 2016 #7
Of course! They did such a great job predicting her 4 point win. pnwmom Apr 2016 #30
She is winning Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #45
She Will However Easily Reach a Majority of Pledged Delegates Meaning BALLGAME Stallion Apr 2016 #8
True Robbins Apr 2016 #9
No they won't dsc Apr 2016 #15
I look at it as the nominee needed 50% +1 of 4,051 pledged delegates LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #44
After looking at their exit poll RandySF Apr 2016 #10
Their math isn't the problem Renew Deal Apr 2016 #14
So? She'll win on the first vote and the rest of the convention will be a victory party. nt Codeine Apr 2016 #11
That's not what they reported Renew Deal Apr 2016 #13
What did they report then? gabeana Apr 2016 #16
Your definition of a contested convention is not most others' definition... brooklynite Apr 2016 #17
That's only because Bernie has changed the standard. He's saying that even if Hillary pnwmom Apr 2016 #18
Sanders and his camp tried to create Operation Chaos tonight!! They will try to make riversedge Apr 2016 #21
He wants to keep those funds coming in. Devine gets 800K a month. He must be fed. brush Apr 2016 #36
Don't lose mad. Just lose. nt LexVegas Apr 2016 #19
Isn't it Don't Go away Mad-Just Go Away? Stallion Apr 2016 #23
Hmm, McCoy is down to austere one-liners? No snark? No vitriol? Tarc Apr 2016 #24
She'll have 2383 in a few weeks. Talk to Tad Devine if you're unhappy with superdelegates.... George II Apr 2016 #34
They did not BainsBane Apr 2016 #37
Not sure where they're getting their numbers from... sentenza607 Apr 2016 #41
Wasn't it CNN's exit polls that had Hillary leading by 4? kstewart33 Apr 2016 #42
Contested? Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #46
There is no contested convention Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #48
 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
22. The standard has not changed. She, like every other candidate,
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:26 PM
Apr 2016

must secure a majority of total delegates. She won't do it through pledged delegates alone.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
26. But once she has the majority of pledged delegates there won't be any reason to think
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:30 PM
Apr 2016

the super delegates who have already endorsed her will be changing their minds.

She didn't make Barack Obama wait till the convention to recognize reality. Bernie shouldn't either, unless he wants to help the GOP.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
29. But but but. There is no different standard for her.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:32 PM
Apr 2016

She chose to concede in 2008. Otherwise, it could have been quite interesting.

And if Bernie stays in she won't reach a majority of pledged delegates until June 7.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
33. She strongly shifted her tone long before then. She even defended him against John McCain.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:35 PM
Apr 2016

It's time for Bernie at least to stop with the dirty tricks -- like yesterday's despicable letter -- and ugly attacks.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
35. She will have a majority of the pledged delegates
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:35 PM
Apr 2016

And the supers will vote with the winner of the pledged delegates as they always do. Bernie should get out ...he can't win and this latest BS of his sending a letter accusing Hillary of campaign finance Bs...from the pages of Politico hit piece...he needs to get out. He is doing himself and the party and the country no good.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
40. The supers have never been forced to make that decision.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:42 PM
Apr 2016

In a close race. 2008 is the only example of two candidates being close and running it out, but Hillary conceded before the convention, so Obama was the only one standing.

LiberalFighter

(50,943 posts)
39. Whoever thinks that don't have their hat on right.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:38 PM
Apr 2016

It makes no sense to say that 50% +1 of 4,765 delegates must be done with only pledged delegates. That 2,383 criteria is 58.8% of just the pledged delegates.

Sometimes I wish I could reach through my tv and stuff their foot up their rear.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
5. She is gonna get creamed in California
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:14 PM
Apr 2016

So there is that. There was no reason for her to win in NY. Of course, there is no reason for her to win anywhere. She isn't what she claims to be and never has been.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
27. Funny. She won the Hispanic vote in the most Hispanic county in NY by 40 points.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:31 PM
Apr 2016

There's no reason to think her coalition of diverse voters won't support her in California.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
38. Bernie is not ahead in California
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:36 PM
Apr 2016

With proportionate voting...he could not get a enough delegates...it is over.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
43. No
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:50 PM
Apr 2016

We are not Republicans and do not have contested conventions...the super delegates will vote for the nominee who has the most pledged delegates period end of story. And even if we had such a system...this latest ploy by Bernie accusing Hillary of campaign finance wrongdoing which he pulled from a partisan politico story would turn the supers against him. He accused down ballot candidates as well as Hillary and others...they said on CNN he could get sued...very reckless of Sanders...hope someone does sue him. It back-fired though...she trounced him.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
9. True
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:14 PM
Apr 2016

but super delegates will likely hand it to her at convention.

if bernie couldn't win ny than i fear he will lose the april 26 states.

dsc

(52,162 posts)
15. No they won't
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:17 PM
Apr 2016

she will have won the pledged delegates, more votes than him, and thus have earned it. I know it is hard to give her credit for earning things but that is what she will have done.

LiberalFighter

(50,943 posts)
44. I look at it as the nominee needed 50% +1 of 4,051 pledged delegates
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:50 PM
Apr 2016

Or 2,026 as the first step.

California will lock it up 100% but she will have an additional 60 delegate edge on top of her current 247 by next Tuesday. (+307) Leaving only about 1,074 left and Sanders would need just over 690 of that 1,074. That is over 64%.

brooklynite

(94,591 posts)
17. Your definition of a contested convention is not most others' definition...
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:18 PM
Apr 2016

Clinton will be ahead in ELECTED delegates; that and the Superdelegates will put her over the top. There won't be a "contest".

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
18. That's only because Bernie has changed the standard. He's saying that even if Hillary
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:20 PM
Apr 2016

gets more than half of the pledged delegates --2026 -- that won't be enough. Because more than 700 delegates are supers, and to reach half of the total delegates she must have some of their votes -- which aren't officially cast till the convention.

Of course her super delegates will vote for her, so he's talking about a contested convention for no good reason.

riversedge

(70,242 posts)
21. Sanders and his camp tried to create Operation Chaos tonight!! They will try to make
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:24 PM
Apr 2016

Philly a contested conv. for the Dems also IMHO

brush

(53,784 posts)
36. He wants to keep those funds coming in. Devine gets 800K a month. He must be fed.
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:36 PM
Apr 2016

Actually, he should be fired for not contesting the southern primaries. Things would have been very different is Sanders had won two or three of those primaries.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
24. Hmm, McCoy is down to austere one-liners? No snark? No vitriol?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:27 PM
Apr 2016

Someone's sails are feeling a little slack in the breeze tonight.

George II

(67,782 posts)
34. She'll have 2383 in a few weeks. Talk to Tad Devine if you're unhappy with superdelegates....
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:35 PM
Apr 2016

...he helped set them up.

sentenza607

(22 posts)
41. Not sure where they're getting their numbers from...
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:48 PM
Apr 2016

...but Hillary was already well ahead of her target delegate count (pledged, not counting superdelegates) BEFORE tonight's results to win a majority. Tonight will put her even further ahead of that target, and the polls in the remaining big states look pretty good for her. See stats below:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

kstewart33

(6,551 posts)
42. Wasn't it CNN's exit polls that had Hillary leading by 4?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:49 PM
Apr 2016

Also WHO on CNN actually said that? A Bernie advocate?

"CNN" ?

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
46. Contested?
Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:51 PM
Apr 2016

The pledged and supers vote together when each state is called at the convention. How will it be "contested"? She will have many more total delegates than needed.

It makes no sense. The pledged delegates are just one part of the equation.

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