2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAre the Polls Undercounting Latino Obama Backers?
Evidence from the 2010 elections suggests pollsters may be ignoring Spanish-speaking Latinospotentially making Colorado and Nevada safer bets for Obama than they appear.
By Adam Serwer
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Shortly after the 2010 midterm elections, Jim Margolis, a longtime Democratic pollster who's now a top media consultant for Obama's reelection campaign, cowrote a memo outlining how the Democrats had managed to save his then-boss, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). During the fall, Reid had looked like he was going to get swept away in the tea party wave that handed the GOP a majority in the House of Representatives. Polls showed Reid trailing his Republican opponent, Sharron Angle, by an average of nearly 3 points. Republicans were about to knock off the second Democratic Senate leader in a row, having ended Tom Daschle's Senate career in 2004.
Then something weird happened. Reid wonby almost 6 points. In Colorado, another state with a large Latino population, Democratic Senate candidate Michael Bennet eked out a 1-point win despite polls showing his GOP rival, Ken Buck, up by an average of about 3 points. For good reason, politicos have calloused fingers from hitting refresh on New York Times' numbers guru Nate Silver's website, but even his model predicted likely Republican wins in Nevada and Colorado in 2010.
"Nobody had Reid winning, nobody had Reid ahead," says Brad Coker, a pollster for Mason-Dixon, the firm hired by the Las Vegas Review-Journal to poll the state. "People underestimated the ability to turn out Hispanic voters the way they had turned out for Obama." In the memo written after Reid's win, Margolis and Reid pollster Mark Mellman said the same thing: Latino voters, undersampled by pollsters and written off as unlikely voters, had made a huge difference for Democrats.
How did this happen? According to Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions, a polling firm that specializes in public opinion surveys of the Latino community, pollsters were using outdated methods that simply missed the Latino voter surge. Small sample sizes of Latinos, ineffective or inadequate efforts to reach "Spanish-dominant" Latino voters, and failing to account for how many Latino voters would turn out kept most pollsters from identifying what immigration reform advocate Frank Sharry called the Democrats' Latino "firewall" in 2010. Barreto argues that the polls often miss working-class Latinos, who are more likely to use cellphones, work long hours, and prefer to speak Spanish. Instead, the polls are more likely to reach more financially comfortable, "English-dominant" Latinos who are more likely to vote Republican. Robopolls, in which an automated prompt calls voters, tend to be particularly bad at measuring Latino public opinion, even when they have a Spanish-language option, Barreto says.
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http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/10/polls-undercounting-latino-voters
In a recent post, Nate Silver considered the impact.
Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote
fugop
(1,828 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)FL maybe a bit less so since there is a solid bloc of rw Cubans there.
yellowcanine
(35,702 posts)Second and third generation Cubans are less conservative and other Latino groups are diluting the Cuban effect.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)was overstated in 2008 also.
First, here is Nate Silver on the Mason-Dixon Florida poll that showed Romney ahead based on the Cuban vote:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation
This is not acceptable. The polling firm may be "good," but the poll is bunk!
The poll shows Romney winning Hispanics 46 to 44, which is similar to the lead they gave McCain in October 2008.
Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: October 20 through October 21, 2008
Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.
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In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obamas 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).
Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters.
McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obamas negatives are a bit higher than McCains (37%-33%).
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http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Fla_Mason-Dixon.pdf
Other polling during the period.
A new University of North Florida poll conducted from October 1 to October 10 shows President Obama with a four point lead over Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45
The Hispanic support mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate.
By Marc Caputo
Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting...according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions for Americas Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.
Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed....this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.
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But the number of Republican Hispanics has only grown 12 percent, while the number of Democratic Hispanics have increased 60 percent and no-party-affiliation Hispanic voters increased 50 percent. NPA Hispanics now outnumber Republican Hispanics in Florida.
And Hispanics are energized about voting as well, with 70 percent saying their very enthusiastic about voting...Thats welcome news to the Obama campaign, which has watched its support slip among non-white Hispanic whites. Obama lost the white vote 42-56 percent to John McCain in 2008 in Florida, but won Hispanics 57-42.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/v-fullstory/3034352/poll-hispanics-in-florida-favor.html
yellowcanine
(35,702 posts)That is the question. I predict there are going to be some real surprises in Obama's favor on election night in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. Possibly Virginia also, there is a very large Latino population in Northern Virginia. Not that all of these states will necessarily go to Obama. I think North Carolina probably will but Arizona is likely still a stretch, though I think it will be much closer than the current polls suggest.
gademocrat7
(10,676 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Even in Indiana and Ohio, there will be a difference, moreso in Iowa.